Match report →
Egypt – Russia1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Egypt
2.25
Total xG
3.90
Russia
1.64
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Egypt | Russia |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | +1.06 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.72 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | +0.65 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.36 | +0.36 |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.24 | |
| Declining form (1.3 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.23 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.21 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| 100% of goal output missing (only 0% available) |
Key factors
- Russia has only 0% of its usual starting XI goal threat available due to limited squad strength
- The mathematical analysis predicts a 51% probability of a home win for Egypt
- Egypt consistently scores with an average of 1.8 goals per game, whereas Russia's goal production recently stagnated at 1.3 goals
Risks
- Limited data availability for expected goals (xG) in the last 5 games for both teams
- Russia won the only head-to-head encounter 3-1
- Russia showed possession-dominant play in its last 5 games with an average of 5.6 shots on target
All probabilities
Result
Egypt51%
Draw22%
Russia27%
Goals
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.575%
Under 2.525%
Over 3.555%
Under 3.545%
Double chance
Egypt or draw73%
Russia or draw49%
No draw78%
Both teams score
Yes73%
No27%
Most likely scores
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
3:1
6%
1:2
6%
3:2
5%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Russia: first goal in 5 of 6 games (83%)
- Egypt: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)
- Russia with Lechi Sadulaev: 4.8 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- Russia: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Egypt 4-2-3-1 · Russia 4-3-3
Egypt
- 23 M. Shobeir
- 3 M. Hany Eldemerdash
- 2 Y. Ibrahim El Hanafi
- 6 M. Abdelmonem
- 15 K. Ramadan Seif El Din
- 17 M. Lasheen
- 19 M. Attia
- 25 A. Sayed
- 8 E. Ashour
- 7 M. Hassan
- 22 O. Marmoush
Russia
- 12 S. Agkatsev
- 30 I. Vakhaniya
- 3 I. Diveev
- 24 A. Silyanov
- 4 D. Krugovoi
- 7 A. Batrakov
- 18 M. Kislyak
- 21 A. Miranchuk
- 67 M. Glushenkov
- 13 I. Sergeev
- 27 I. Oblyakov
Substitutes
- 12 H. Hassan
- 20 I. Adel
- 18 N. Emad
- 24 T. Alaa
- 16 A. Soliman
- 26 M. Alaa
- 21 M. Saber
- 4 H. Abdelmaguid
- 1 M. El Shenawy
- 5 R. Rabia
- 13 A. Aboel Fettoh
- 11 M. Zaki Abdelraouf
- 27 H. Abdel Karim
- 97 A. Abdallah
- 59 A. Miranchuk
- 14 V. Melekhin
- 22 M. Beveev
- 8 N. Umyarov
- 16 D. Adamov
- 1 A. Mitryushkin
- 99 A. Maximenko
- 2 E. Morozov
- 6 D. Barinov
- 9 G. Melkadze
- 29 M. Petrov
- 94 K. Danilov
- 28 N. Krivtsov
- 10 A. Ibragimov
- 15 A. Karpukas
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