Friendly International

Russia - Trinidad and Tobago

06/09/2026, 05:00 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Russia
2.2
Total xG
3.0
Trinidad and Tobago
0.8
Most Likely Scores

2:0

12%

1:1

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

9%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
RUSTAT

Russia

Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.64
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.24
Standings advantage (pos 33 vs 102, 69 places gap)
+0.15
Declining form (1.5 vs 2 season average)
-0.15
K. Tyukavin not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
A. Golovin not in squad (1 goals, 0 assists)
33% of goal output missing (only 66% available)

Trinidad and Tobago

Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1 league avg)
+1.13
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.20
Standings disadvantage (pos 102 vs 33, 69 places gap)
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.12
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
-0.03

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.33
+0.33
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Russia with Lechi Sadulaev: 2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Trinidad and Tobago with Deron Payne: 0 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 3
    Russia: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 4
    Trinidad and Tobago: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

68%

Draw

21%

Away Win

12%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

88%

Away or Draw

32%

No Draw

79%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis forecasts a home win for Russia with a 68% probability.
  • Russia's Defensive Strength: Russia concedes an average of only 0.25 goals per home game.
  • Trinidad and Tobago's Form: The team has recorded 0 wins and 3 losses in their last five matches, including a 0-5 defeat.
Risk Factors
  • Russia is missing key attacking players such as K. Tyukavin and A. Golovin, with only 67% of goal production available.
  • Trinidad and Tobago has conceded an average of 3.5 goals per game in recent matches.
Overview

Russia will host Trinidad and Tobago in a Friendly International match at Complexe Sportif Jean Bianchi 1 on June 9, 2026, 7:00 PM. The mathematical analysis places Russia as the clear favorite with a high probability of 68% for a home win. Russia is projected to score 2.20 expected goals, while Trinidad and Tobago is projected for 0.83 expected goals.

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Russia's last five matches show a form of LWDLW, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their most recent game was a 3-0 victory against Burkina Faso.

Trinidad and Tobago's form in their last five outings is DLLDL, recording 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses. Their last match resulted in a 0-5 defeat against Korea Republic.

Statistics

Russia scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded 0.5 goals per game in 4 matches. They kept 2 clean sheets. In home games, they scored an average of 1.5 goals and conceded only 0.25 goals per game. Both teams scored in 1 of 4 matches.

Trinidad and Tobago scored an average of 2.3 goals and conceded 1.2 goals per game in 10 matches. They kept 2 clean sheets. In away games, they scored 2.4 goals and conceded 1.2 goals per game. Both teams scored in 7 of 10 matches. 6 out of 10 matches for Trinidad and Tobago ended with over 2.5 goals.

Key Players

Key players for Russia include: Lechi Sadulaev who has 2 season goals with an average rating of 7.48. Ilya Vakhania has 1 season goal and an average rating of 7.12. Aleksey Miranchuk scored 1 season goal and has an average rating of 6.98.

Key players for Trinidad and Tobago include: Reon Moore who scored 3 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 games. D. Smith (goalkeeper) has an average rating of 6.43 in his last 5 games. D. Phillips has an average rating of 6.52 across 5 games.

Goalkeepers

Russia's starting goalkeeper is Anton Mitryushkin. The team has recorded 2 clean sheets this season.

Trinidad and Tobago's goalkeeper is D. Smith. The team has also recorded 2 clean sheets this season.

Influences

The match will be played on a grass surface. Russia demonstrates strong defensive performance at home, conceding only an average of 0.25 goals per home game. Trinidad and Tobago has scored an average of 2.4 goals per away game.

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