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Russia – Trinidad and Tobago3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Russia
2.20
Total xG
3.03
Trinidad and Tobago
0.83
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Russia | Trinidad and Tobago |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +1.13 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.64 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.33 | +0.33 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.24 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.20 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 33 vs 102, 69 places gap) | +0.15 | |
| Declining form (1.5 vs 2 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 102 vs 33, 69 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.03 | |
| K. Tyukavin not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| A. Golovin not in squad (1 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 33% of goal output missing (only 66% available) |
Key factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis forecasts a home win for Russia with a 68% probability.
- Russia's Defensive Strength: Russia concedes an average of only 0.25 goals per home game.
- Trinidad and Tobago's Form: The team has recorded 0 wins and 3 losses in their last five matches, including a 0-5 defeat.
Risks
- Russia is missing key attacking players such as K. Tyukavin and A. Golovin, with only 67% of goal production available.
- Trinidad and Tobago has conceded an average of 3.5 goals per game in recent matches.
All probabilities
Result
Russia68%
Draw21%
Trinidad and Tobago12%
Double chance
Russia or draw88%
Trinidad and Tobago or draw32%
No draw79%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
2:0
12%
1:1
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
9%
3:1
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Russia with Lechi Sadulaev: 2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Trinidad and Tobago with Deron Payne: 0 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Russia: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- Trinidad and Tobago: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Russia 4-3-3 · Trinidad and Tobago 3-4-3
Russia
- 23 A. Mitryushkin
- 30 I. Vakhaniya
- 24 A. Silyanov
- 2 E. Morozov
- 22 M. Beveev
- 7 A. Batrakov
- 27 I. Oblyakov
- 28 N. Krivtsov
- 59 A. Miranchuk
- 13 I. Sergeev
- 20 L. Sadulaev
Trinidad and Tobago
- 22 D. Smith
- 5 A. Herbert
- 18 A. Rampersad
- 17 J. Garcia
- 20 K. Thomas
- 8 D. Phillips
- 19 M. Poon-Angeron
- 6 A. Amos Raymond
- 7 R. Telfer
- 13 R. Moore
- 10 M. Khan
Substitutes
- 21 A. Miranchuk
- 14 V. Melekhin
- 18 M. Kislyak
- 1 A. Maximenko
- 4 D. Krugovoi
- 16 S. Agkatsev
- 6 D. Barinov
- 9 G. Melkadze
- 29 M. Petrov
- 26 K. Danilov
- 19 A. Ibragimov
- 11 J. Garcia
- 23 N. Powder
- 14 J. Rochford
- 16 I. Lee
- 1 J. Brice
- 9 D. David
- 12 A. Nakhid
- 21 Teshorne Ragoo
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