Friendly International

Russia - Burkina Faso

06/05/2026, 05:00 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Russia
1.7
Total xG
2.7
Burkina Faso
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

1:2

6%

3:0

6%
What influences the xG?
RUSBF

Russia

Defensive weakness (1 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.83
Attack weakness (0.67x league average)
-0.59
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.37
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.34
Declining form (1 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.28
Standings advantage (pos 33 vs 64, 31 places gap)
+0.12
16% of goal output missing (only 62% available)

Burkina Faso

Standings disadvantage (pos 64 vs 33, 31 places gap)
-0.17
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.16
83% of goal output missing (only 16% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.36
+0.36
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Russia: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 2
    Russia: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Russia with Maksim Glushenkov: 1 goals/game. Without: 2.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Russia: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

27%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

47%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Burkina Faso's reduced attacking strength due to squad changes, with only 17% of usual goal threat available
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Russia with a 53% probability
  • Russia's solid home defensive performance, conceding an average of only 0.33 goals per home game
Risk Factors
  • Russia faces a reduction in typical starting eleven strength, with only 63% of the usual attacking power available
  • The absence of previous head-to-head matches means historical comparisons are not possible
  • Burkina Faso has played no away games this season, making their away performance difficult to assess
Overview

Russia hosts Burkina Faso in a Friendly International match on June 5, 2026, 7:00 PM

The game will be played at RZD Arena

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Russia's current form across all competitions is DLWDL

The team recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Burkina Faso's form across all competitions is WD

This translates to 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses

Russia recently lost away 0-1 to Egypt

Before that, they drew 0-0 at home against Mali

Burkina Faso recently drew 1-1 at home against Guinea-Bissau

Prior to that, they won 5-0 at home against Guinea-Bissau

Statistics

Russia has scored an average of 1.00 goals per game in 3 matches and conceded 0.67 goals

At home, Russia has shown strong defense, conceding an average of only 0.33 goals per home game and scoring 1.00 goals

Burkina Faso has scored an average of 3.00 goals per game in 2 matches and conceded 0.50 goals

Head-to-Head

The provided dataset does not list any previous head-to-head matches between Russia and Burkina Faso

Key Players

For Russia, the following players are notable:

Lechi Sadulaev scored 2 goals in the last 5 games

Aleksey Miranchuk provided 2 assists in the last 5 games and shows a rising form

Dmitri Barinov made 1 assist in the last 5 games and his form is rising

For Burkina Faso, the following players are notable:

Mohamed Ouédraogo scored 3 goals in the last 5 games

Arthur Zagré contributed with 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 5 games

Dango Ouattara scored 2 goals in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Russia's goalkeeper, Aleksandr Maksimenko, has recorded 1 clean sheet this season

Burkina Faso's goalkeeper, Kilian Nikièma, has recorded 1 clean sheet this season

Influences

The match will take place on grass at RZD Arena

Russia demonstrates solid home performance, averaging 1.00 goals scored and only 0.33 goals conceded per home game

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