Match report →
Russia – Burkina Faso3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Russia
1.70
Total xG
2.68
Burkina Faso
0.98
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Russia | Burkina Faso |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.83 | |
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −0.59 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.37 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.36 | +0.36 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.34 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.28 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 64 vs 33, 31 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −0.16 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 33 vs 64, 31 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| 16% of goal output missing (only 62% available) | ||
| 83% of goal output missing (only 16% available) |
Key factors
- Burkina Faso's reduced attacking strength due to squad changes, with only 17% of usual goal threat available
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Russia with a 53% probability
- Russia's solid home defensive performance, conceding an average of only 0.33 goals per home game
Risks
- Russia faces a reduction in typical starting eleven strength, with only 63% of the usual attacking power available
- The absence of previous head-to-head matches means historical comparisons are not possible
- Burkina Faso has played no away games this season, making their away performance difficult to assess
All probabilities
Result
Russia53%
Draw27%
Burkina Faso20%
Double chance
Russia or draw80%
Burkina Faso or draw47%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
1:2
6%
3:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Russia: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- Russia: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Russia with Maksim Glushenkov: 1 goals/game. Without: 2.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Russia: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Russia 4-3-3 · Burkina Faso 4-1-4-1
Russia
- 1 A. Maximenko
- 22 M. Beveev
- 14 V. Melekhin
- 2 E. Morozov
- 4 D. Krugovoi
- 6 D. Barinov
- 8 N. Umyarov
- 21 A. Miranchuk
- 59 A. Miranchuk
- 67 M. Glushenkov
- 20 L. Sadulaev
Burkina Faso
- 23 K. Nikièma
- 4 A. Nagalo
- 12 E. Tapsoba
- 3 M. Ouédraogo
- 26 K. Kouassi
- 8 L. Doucet
- 7 Dango Ouattara
- 20 G. Sangaré
- 22 A. Zagre
- 19 G. Minoungou
- 13 M. Konaté
Substitutes
- 18 M. Kislyak
- 16 D. Adamov
- 23 A. Mitryushkin
- 24 A. Silyanov
- 30 I. Vakhaniya
- 13 I. Sergeev
- 7 A. Batrakov
- 27 I. Oblyakov
- 9 G. Melkadze
- 29 M. Petrov
- 26 K. Danilov
- 28 N. Krivtsov
- 19 A. Ibragimov
- 21 C. Irié
- 2 A. Bassinga
- 17 M. Kabore
- 18 I. Ouédraogo
- 11 O. Bouda
- 1 S. Ouédraogo
- 6 M. Zougrana
- 15 A. Tapsoba
- 16 Y. Konaté
- 24 S. Simporé
- 27 P. Kabore
- 5 D. Serial
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →