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Cape Verde Islands – Serbia3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Cape Verde Islands
1.34
Total xG
2.71
Serbia
1.36
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cape Verde Islands | Serbia |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean | −0.76 | |
| Defensive weakness (1 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.67 | |
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.56 | |
| Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean | +0.46 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 70 vs 34, 36 places gap) | −0.24 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 34 vs 70, 36 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| 33% of goal output missing (only 33% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Critical weakening for Serbia: Only 33% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available.
- Serbia's offensive strength: Serbia averaged 6.0 shots on target in their last 2 games, demonstrating strong attacking play.
- High goal probability: The analysis predicts over 2.5 goals with a 51% probability and both teams to score with a 57% probability.
Risks
- Limited data availability: No direct head-to-head matches or detailed venue statistics are available.
- Defensive vulnerability of both teams: Cape Verde Islands concede an average of 2.5 goals per game, Serbia 2.0 goals per game.
- Uncertain forecast: The very close win probabilities of 35% for home, 29% for draw, and 36% for away win suggest an unpredictable match.
All probabilities
Result
Cape Verde Islands35%
Draw29%
Serbia36%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Double chance
Cape Verde Islands or draw64%
Serbia or draw65%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
3:0
Final score
Lineups
Cape Verde Islands 4-2-3-1 · Serbia 4-2-3-1
Cape Verde Islands
- 1 J. Évora Dias
- 24 W. Cardoso Pina
- 3 E. Monteiro Sanches Borges
- 4 R. Lopes
- 13 S. Lopes Cabral
- 18 T. Gomes Arcanjo
- 6 K. Gonçalves Pereira de Pina
- 20 R. Mendes da Graça
- 10 J. Monteiro Alvarenga
- 7 J. Borges Cabral
- 21 N. da Costa Jóia
Serbia
- 1 F. Stankovic
- 17 K. Nedeljković
- 16 S. Eraković
- 3 S. Pavlović
- 15 A. Avdić
- 5 N. Petrović
- 10 A. Stankovic
- 14 A. Živković
- 22 V. Kostov
- 7 V. Birmančević
- 9 J. Milošević
Substitutes
- 5 L. Costa
- 26 H. Oliveira Alves Varela
- 25 K. Pires
- 15 L. Duarte
- 17 W. Semedo Johnson
- 19 D. Rocha Livramento do Rosario
- 8 J. Moreira Fernandes
- 22 S. Moreira
- 23 C. Dos Santos
- 11 G. Mendes Rodrigues
- 12 M. Salomão Brazão Rosa
- 16 J. Semedo Monteiro
- 9 G. Benchimol Tavares
- 2 I. dos Santos Tavares
- 20 A. Maksimović
- 19 M. Ivanović
- 2 O. Mimović
- 21 V. Lučić
- 8 D. Zukić
- 6 V. Dragojević
- 26 V. Đurđević
- 4 N. Simić
- 23 L. Lijeskic
- 18 N. Štulić
- 25 S. Bukinac
- 11 L. Ranđelović
- 12 V. Ilic
- 13 M. Milikic
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