Friendly International

Cape Verde Islands - Serbia

05/31/2026, 03:00 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Cape Verde Islands
1.3
Total xG
2.7
Serbia
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
CVISER

Cape Verde Islands

Defensive weakness (1 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.67
Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.56
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
+0.46
Standings disadvantage (pos 70 vs 34, 36 places gap)
-0.24
Full strength squad available

Serbia

Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
-0.76
Standings advantage (pos 34 vs 70, 36 places gap)
+0.10
33% of goal output missing (only 33% available)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

29%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Critical weakening for Serbia: Only 33% of the usual starting XI's goal threat is available.
  • Serbia's offensive strength: Serbia averaged 6.0 shots on target in their last 2 games, demonstrating strong attacking play.
  • High goal probability: The analysis predicts over 2.5 goals with a 51% probability and both teams to score with a 57% probability.
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability: No direct head-to-head matches or detailed venue statistics are available.
  • Defensive vulnerability of both teams: Cape Verde Islands concede an average of 2.5 goals per game, Serbia 2.0 goals per game.
  • Uncertain forecast: The very close win probabilities of 35% for home, 29% for draw, and 36% for away win suggest an unpredictable match.
Overview

Cape Verde Islands host Serbia in a Friendly International match on May 31, 2026, 5:00 PM. The mathematical analysis suggests a finely balanced encounter, with Serbia holding a slight advantage at 36% to Cape Verde Islands' 35% for a home win. A draw is predicted at 29%.

Form

Cape Verde Islands' recent form over the last four matches is DDLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). This includes a 1-1 draw against Finland and a 2-4 loss against Chile. Serbia shows a form of LW in their last two games, having recently won 2-1 against Saudi Arabia but lost 0-3 to Spain before that. Cape Verde Islands registered three draws and one loss in this sequence. Serbia achieved one win and one loss during this period.

Statistics

Cape Verde Islands have scored an average of 1.5 goals per game this season and conceded an average of 2.5 goals. Serbia has scored an average of 1.0 goals per game and conceded 2.0 goals on average. Both teams have recorded 0 clean sheets this season. Both teams scored in 2 matches for Cape Verde Islands and in 1 match for Serbia. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 1 match for Cape Verde Islands and in 2 matches for Serbia.

Head-to-Head

There are no previous direct head-to-head encounters between Cape Verde Islands and Serbia in the provided dataset.

Key Players

Key players for Cape Verde Islands include: Sidny Cabral (1 season goal, 2 season assists), Jovane Cabral (2 goals, 1 assist in last 5 games), and Ryan Mendes (1 goal in last 5 games). For Serbia, important players are: Strahinja Pavlović (1 season goal), Aleksandar Stanković (1 goal, 2 assists in last 5 games), and Andrija Zivkovic (1 goal, 3 assists in last 5 games).

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeper Vozinha will be in goal for Cape Verde Islands. Filip Stanković will be in goal for Serbia. Both teams have recorded 0 clean sheets this season.

Influences

Cape Verde Islands scored 1 goal and conceded 1 goal in their only home game this season. Serbia has not played any away games this season. The provided dataset does not contain information about the venue or weather conditions.

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