Friendly International

Paraguay - Nicaragua

06/05/2026, 10:45 PM

4 : 0
Expected Goals
Paraguay
1.7
Total xG
2.7
Nicaragua
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

10%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
PARNIC

Paraguay

Attack weakness (0.56x league average)
-0.80
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.59
Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.48
Standings advantage (pos 37 vs 132, 95 places gap)
+0.12
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.06
Full strength squad available

Nicaragua

Standings disadvantage (pos 132 vs 37, 95 places gap)
-0.18
Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
-0.17
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.37
+0.37
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Paraguay: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 6 total)

  • 2
    Paraguay with Álex Arce : 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (4 of 6 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

27%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

48%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 52% for Paraguay
  • Critical: Only 0% of Nicaragua's usual starting XI goal threat is available
  • Tactical advantage: Paraguay averages 4.2 shots on target, while Nicaragua averages only 0.5
Risk Factors
  • Paraguay has F. Balbuena GonzĂĄlez (Thigh Muscle Strain) and D. Bobadilla (Knee Injury) sidelined
  • Limited data available for head-to-head matches
Overview

Paraguay hosts Nicaragua at Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Friendly International match on June 5, 2026, 11:15 PM

This is an international friendly game played on grass

Form

Paraguay's form across all competitions is LLWWL, with 2 wins and 3 losses

The last result was a loss

Nicaragua's form is LD, with 0 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

The last result was a draw

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Paraguay averages 1.0 goals scored per game and 1.0 goals conceded per game this season

The team kept 1 clean sheet and both teams scored in 1 match

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 match

Nicaragua averages 0.5 goals scored per game and 1.5 goals conceded per game this season

The team kept 1 clean sheet and both teams scored in 1 match

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 match

Nicaragua failed to score in 1 match

Head-to-Head

There are no historical head-to-head matches between Paraguay and Nicaragua in the provided dataset

Key Players

For Paraguay, Julio Enciso is a key player, contributing 2 goals and 1 assist in 5 of 5 games, showing a stable form trend

Juan José Cåceres played in 2 of 5 games, with 1 assist and a stable form trend

Diego GĂłmez scored 1 season goal

For Nicaragua, Jacob Montes shows a stable form trend in 2 of 5 games

Evert Martinez played in 2 of 5 games and has a stable form trend

Jonathan Moncada, who played in 2 of 5 games, shows a declining form trend

Goalkeepers

Paraguay's goalkeeper, Roberto FernĂĄndez, has recorded 1 clean sheet

Nicaragua's goalkeeper, Adonis Pineda, has also recorded 1 clean sheet

Influences

The match will take place at Estadio Defensores del Chaco on a grass surface

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