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Paraguay – Nicaragua4 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Paraguay
1.72
Total xG
2.74
Nicaragua
1.02
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Paraguay | Nicaragua |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.56x league average) | −0.80 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | +0.59 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.48 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.37 | +0.37 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 132 vs 37, 95 places gap) | −0.18 | |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | −0.17 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 37 vs 132, 95 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| 100% of goal output missing (only 0% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 52% for Paraguay
- Critical: Only 0% of Nicaragua's usual starting XI goal threat is available
- Tactical advantage: Paraguay averages 4.2 shots on target, while Nicaragua averages only 0.5
Risks
- Paraguay has F. Balbuena González (Thigh Muscle Strain) and D. Bobadilla (Knee Injury) sidelined
- Limited data available for head-to-head matches
All probabilities
Result
Paraguay52%
Draw27%
Nicaragua21%
Double chance
Paraguay or draw79%
Nicaragua or draw48%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
10%
2:0
10%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
4:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Paraguay: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 6 total)
- Paraguay with Álex Arce : 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (4 of 6 games)
Lineups
Paraguay 4-4-2 · Nicaragua 5-4-1
Paraguay
- 1 R. Fernández Torres
- 4 J. Cáceres
- 15 G. Gómez Portillo
- 3 O. Alderete Fernández
- 6 J. Alonso Mujica
- 8 D. Gómez Amarilla
- 14 A. Cubas
- 17 A. Romero Gamarra
- 19 J. Enciso
- 9 A. Sanabria Ayala
- 10 M. Almirón Rejala
Nicaragua
- 12 E. Pineda Solís
- 6 J. Rivera
- 3 J. Gutiérrez Zeledón
- 19 E. Martínez
- 5 J. Cano
- 22 A. Velasquez
- 14 J. Coronel Martínez
- 16 R. Cole Mártinez
- 10 J. Montes
- 8 J. Moncada Zeledon
- 11 J. García Hurtado
Substitutes
- 24 G. Caballero
- 20 B. Ojeda Rodríguez
- 23 M. Galarza Fonda
- 12 O. Gill
- 21 G. Ávalos Stumpfs
- 16 D. Bobadilla
- 25 I. Pitta Saldívar
- 5 F. Balbuena González
- 7 R. Sosa
- 2 V. Velázquez Ramos
- 18 A. Arce Barrios
- 13 J. Canale Domínguez
- 26 A. Maidana Mendieta
- 11 M. Magalhães Prado
- 22 G. Olveira Echeverría
- 7 A. Smith Medina
- 1 A. López
- 20 W. Talavera
- 23 D. Parker Cortéz
- 9 E. Castillo Bellorin
- 21 S. Cáceres
- 13 O. Bello Rodriguez
- 18 A. Zamora
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