Match report →
Saudi Arabia – Senegal0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Saudi Arabia
1.18
Total xG
2.82
Senegal
1.65
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Saudi Arabia | Senegal |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (2.63x league average) | +1.96 | |
| Defensive weakness (3.5 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +1.72 | |
| Attack weakness (0.28x league average) | −1.50 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | −1.47 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | +1.08 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.34 | +0.34 |
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1 league avg) | −0.33 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.27 | |
| Rising form (3 vs 2.1 season average) | +0.27 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 59 vs 18, 41 places gap) | −0.21 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.20 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 18 vs 59, 41 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| 37% of goal output missing (only 55% available) | ||
| Ismaïla Sarr on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 89% available) |
Key factors
- Senegal's offense is significantly stronger, averaging 2.20 goals per game this season compared to Saudi Arabia's
- Saudi Arabia's poor form with 4 losses in their last 5 games highlights the team's current crisis
- The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Senegal with a probability of 47%
Risks
- Saudi Arabia's tactical metrics show limited attacking threat with an average of 2.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Saudi Arabia is without N. Alaqidi (Thigh Problems)
All probabilities
Result
Saudi Arabia26%
Draw27%
Senegal47%
Double chance
Saudi Arabia or draw53%
Senegal or draw74%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Saudi Arabia with Abdullah Al-Hamdan: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Senegal with Mamadou Sarr: 3.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (4 of 6 games)
- Saudi Arabia: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Saudi Arabia 4-4-2 · Senegal 4-2-3-1
Saudi Arabia
- 21 M. Al Owais
- 12 S. Abdul Hamid
- 4 A. Al Amri
- 5 H. Al Tambakti
- 24 Moteb Al-Harbi
- 26 M. Al Shamat
- 15 A. Alkhaibari
- 6 N. Al Dawsari
- 10 S. Al Dawsari
- 9 F. Albirakan
- 7 M. Aljuwayr
Senegal
- 16 E. Mendy
- 15 K. Diatta
- 2 M. Sarr
- 19 M. Niakhaté
- 25 E. Diouf
- 6 P. Ciss
- 8 L. Camara
- 13 I. Ndiaye
- 21 M. Diarra
- 10 S. Mané
- 12 P. Ndiaye
Substitutes
- 28 M. Kanno
- 3 A. Lajami
- 19 A. Al Hamdan
- 11 S. Al Shehri
- 2 A. Majrashi
- 16 Z. Aljohani
- 17 K. Al Ghannam
- 23 A. Atiah
- 30 S. Madash
- 13 N. Boushal
- 8 A. Yahya
- 25 J. Abdullatif Ahm
- 14 H. Kadesh
- 27 A. Hejji
- 22 A. Al Kassar
- 11 N. Jackson
- 23 M. Diaw
- 9 Bamba Dieng
- 99 M. Mbow
- 26 P. Gueye
- 20 I. Mbaye
- 1 Y. Diouf
- 24 A. Mendy
- 5 I. Gueye
- 18 I. Sarr
- 17 P. Sarr
- 14 I. Jakobs
- 4 A. Seck
- 3 K. Koulibaly
- 22 B. Sapoko Ndiaye
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