Friendly International

Saudi Arabia - Senegal

06/09/2026, 11:00 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Saudi Arabia
1.2
Total xG
2.8
Senegal
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
SASEN

Saudi Arabia

Defensive weakness (3.5 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+1.72
Attack weakness (0.28x league average)
-1.50
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
+1.08
Standings disadvantage (pos 59 vs 18, 41 places gap)
-0.21
Declining form (0.5 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.20
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.06
37% of goal output missing (only 55% available)

Senegal

Attack strength (2.63x league average)
+1.96
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
-1.47
Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1 league avg)
-0.33
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match)
+0.27
Rising form (3 vs 2.1 season average)
+0.27
Standings advantage (pos 18 vs 59, 41 places gap)
+0.12
Ismaïla Sarr on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 89% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.34
+0.34
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Saudi Arabia with Abdullah Al-Hamdan: 1 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Senegal with Mamadou Sarr: 3.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (4 of 6 games)

  • 3
    Saudi Arabia: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

26%

Draw

27%

Away Win

47%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

53%

Away or Draw

74%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Senegal's offense is significantly stronger, averaging 2.20 goals per game this season compared to Saudi Arabia's
  • Saudi Arabia's poor form with 4 losses in their last 5 games highlights the team's current crisis
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Senegal with a probability of 47%
Risk Factors
  • Saudi Arabia's tactical metrics show limited attacking threat with an average of 2.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Saudi Arabia is without N. Alaqidi (Thigh Problems)
Overview

Saudi Arabia hosts Senegal in a Friendly International match at Toyota Field. The game takes place on June 10, 2026, 12:00 AM. Both teams will use this match to test players and refine their tactics.

Form

Saudi Arabia has recorded a form of LLLLW in their last five matches across all competitions. This consists of 1 win and 4 losses. Their most recent outing was a win (W 3-0 against Puerto Rico). Prior to that, they suffered losses against Ecuador (1-2), Serbia (1-2), Egypt (0-4), and Algeria (0-2).

Senegal shows a form of LWWWL in their last five matches across all competitions, comprising 3 wins and 2 losses. Their most recent game was a loss (L 2-3 against United States). Before that, they secured wins against Gambia (3-1), Peru (2-0), and Kenya (8-0), followed by a loss against Brazil (0-2).

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Saudi Arabia averages 1.22 goals scored per game and concedes 0.72 goals this season. In home games, the average is 1.29 goals scored and 1.00 goal conceded. Saudi Arabia kept 10 clean sheets and failed to score in 6 games.

Senegal demonstrates a stronger offense with an average of 2.20 goals per game and a very stable defense with only 0.30 goals conceded. In away matches, the average is an impressive 2.25 goals scored and only 0.50 goals conceded. Senegal achieved 8 clean sheets and failed to score in 2 games. The match will be played on grass.

Head-to-Head

There are no head-to-head matches between Saudi Arabia and Senegal in the provided data.

Key Players

For Saudi Arabia, Salem Al-Dawsari (Attacker) and Musab Al-Juwayr (Midfielder) are key players. Al-Dawsari has scored 1 goal this season and contributed 2 goals in the last 5 games, showing a rising form trend. Al-Juwayr scored 1 goal in the last 5 games, also with a rising form trend. Moteb Al-Harbi (Defender) also showed rising form recently with 1 goal in 5 games.

For Senegal, Sadio Mané (Attacker) stands out with 2 season goals and 5 goals in the last 5 games. Cherif Ndiaye (Attacker) scored 2 goals in the last 5 games. Lamine Camara (Midfielder) has scored 1 goal this season and also contributed 1 goal in the last 5 games.

Goalkeepers

Saudi Arabia's goalkeeper, Mohammed Al-Owais, has an average rating of 7.58 in 2 season appearances and recently declining form. His team kept 10 clean sheets this season. For Senegal, Edouard Mendy is in goal, having played in 4 of the last 5 matches. His team managed 8 clean sheets this season.

Influences

Saudi Arabia scores an average of 1.29 goals in home games and concedes 1.00 goal. Senegal performs very strongly away, with an average of 2.25 goals scored and only 0.50 goals conceded per game. The match will be played on a grass surface.

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