Liga Profesional de FĂștbol
Estudiantes - Racing Club
05/10/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.1
0.9
1:1
15%0:0
15%1:0
13%0:1
10%2:0
8%What influences the xG?
Estudiantes
Racing Club
League
The Lab
- 1Estudiantes: 88% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 2Racing Club with Franco Pardo: 1.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Estudiantes: scored only after the break in 5 of 8 games
- 4Estudiantes with GastĂłn Benedetti: 1.1 goals/90 min. Without: 3.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 5Estudiantes: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
39%
Draw
34%
Away Win
27%
Goals
Over 1.5
63%
Under 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
34%
Under 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
15%
Under 3.5
85%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
73%
Away or Draw
61%
No Draw
66%
Both Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Key Factors
- Home win tendency: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 39% for Estudiantes
- Form difference: Estudiantes showed significantly stronger form in the last five games compared to Racing Club
- Defensive strength: Estudiantes conceded only 0.44 goals per game on average this season, compared to 0.94 goals for Racing Club
Risk Factors
- Estudiantes: Only 70% of usual goal threat available without Alexis Castro, Brian Aguirre, and Fabricio PĂ©rez
- Racing Club: Averaged only 2.2 shots on target in the last 5 games, indicating few attempts
Overview
Estudiantes (1st place, 31 points) host Racing Club (8th place, 21 points) in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol on May 10, 2026, 9:00 PM. The home team aims to defend its lead at the top of the table.
Form
Estudiantes show good form with "LWWDW" (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) from their last five matches with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. Racing Club, however, are in a difficult phase with "LLDDD" (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses). Estudiantes last won 2-0 against Platense, while Racing Club drew 0-0 against HuracĂĄn.
Statistics
Estudiantes average 1.19 goals scored and only 0.44 goals conceded per game this season. The team kept 9 clean sheets. In home games, the average is 1.22 goals scored and 0.44 goals conceded. Racing Club average 1.06 goals scored and 0.94 goals conceded per game, with 6 clean sheets. Away from home, Racing Club average 1.11 goals scored and 0.89 goals conceded. Both teams scored in 4 Estudiantes matches and 8 Racing Club matches.
Head-to-Head
In 4 head-to-head matches, Estudiantes recorded 3 wins, while Racing Club secured no wins and 1 draw. The goal difference is 9:5 in favour of Estudiantes. Their last encounter on December 14, 2025, ended in a 1-1 draw. Estudiantes have been more dominant in recent encounters.
Key Players
For Estudiantes, Mikel Amondarain (2 goals, 1 assist this season, 1 goal in last 5 games), Guido Carrillo (1 goal, 1 assist this season), and Santiago NĂșñez (1 goal, 1 assist this season, 1 assist in last 5 games) are important players. For Racing Club, AdriĂĄn MartĂnez (4 goals this season), TomĂĄs Conechny (3 goals, 2 assists this season), and MatĂas Zaracho (2 goals this season, 2 goals in last 5 games with rising form) stand out.
Goalkeepers
Fernando Muslera, the Estudiantes goalkeeper, has contributed to his team keeping 9 clean sheets in 11 season appearances. Facundo Cambeses of Racing Club has played 16 games, and his team achieved 6 clean sheets.
Influences
Estudiantes show strong defensive stability in home games, averaging 1.22 goals scored and only 0.44 goals conceded. Racing Club have an away record of 1.11 goals scored and 0.89 goals conceded per game.