Liga Profesional de FĂștbol
Rosario Central - Independiente
05/10/2026, 06:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.4
0.9
1:1
14%1:0
12%0:0
11%2:0
10%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Rosario Central
Independiente
League
The Lab
- 1Independiente with Rodrigo Fernåndez Cedrés: 7.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Rosario Central: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- 3Rosario Central with Enzo Copetti: 2.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Rosario Central: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5Independiente: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
47%
Draw
30%
Away Win
22%
Goals
Over 1.5
70%
Under 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
42%
Under 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
21%
Under 3.5
79%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
78%
Away or Draw
53%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Key Factors
- Rosario Central is the favorite with a home win probability of 47% according to mathematical analysis
- Rosario Central shows a positive recent form trend with 1.6 goals per game currently compared to 1.4 season average, according to Advanced Stats
- Rosario Central's strong home defense with an average of 0.88 goals conceded meets Independiente's vulnerable away defense with 1.83 goals conceded
Risk Factors
- J. Komar (Heart Problems) and J. Giménez (Knee Injury) are missing for Rosario Central
- Independiente averaged only 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Independiente has won the last two direct encounters against Rosario Central, including a 0:1 away victory in their last match
Overview
Rosario Central (4th place, 28 points) host Independiente (5th place, 24 points) in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol
The match takes place on May 10, 2026, 8:00 PM
Both teams are vying for an improved position in the upper mid-table
Form
Rosario Central's current form (W/L/W/W/D) shows 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss from the last 5 games
Rosario Central's last result was a draw
Independiente's form (W/D/W/L/W) also includes 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss
Independiente won their last game
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Rosario Central averages 1.25 goals scored per home game and concedes 0.88 goals
Independiente averages 1.5 goals scored away and concedes 1.83 goals per game
Rosario Central kept 4 clean sheets in 16 games, Independiente also achieved 4 clean sheets in 16 games
In 10 of Rosario Central's games, both teams scored, compared to 11 for Independiente
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 8 of Rosario Central's games and 6 of Independiente's games
Head-to-Head
There have been a total of 3 head-to-head matches between Rosario Central and Independiente
Rosario Central won 1 match and Independiente won 2, with 0 draws
The goal difference is 1:2 in favor of Independiente
The last encounter on November 16, 2025, ended in a 0:1 victory for Independiente
Independiente has been dominant in recent meetings
Key Players
For Rosario Central, Ăngel Di MarĂa (4 goals, 3 assists, average rating 7.39) and Franco Ibarra (0 goals, 0 assists, average rating 7.32) are important players
Vicente TomĂĄs Pizarro Durcudoy (1 goal, 1 assist, average rating 7.14) also contributes to the team
On Independiente's side, Gabriel Ăvalos (9 goals, 5 assists, average rating 7.45) stands out
Maximiliano Gutiérrez (2 goals, 1 assist, average rating 6.96) and Ignacio Malcorra (1 goal, 3 assists, average rating 6.93) are also key players
Goalkeepers
Conan Ledesma is the goalkeeper for Rosario Central, who achieved 4 clean sheets this season
Rodrigo Rey is the goalkeeper for Independiente, who also recorded 4 clean sheets
Influences
Rosario Central has scored an average of 1.25 goals at home and conceded 0.88 goals
Independiente has scored an average of 1.5 goals away and conceded 1.83 goals