La Liga
Rayo Vallecano - Atlético de Madrid
02/15/2026, 03:15 PM
Expected Goals
0.9
2.8
1.9
1:1
12%0:2
10%1:2
10%0:3
7%1:3
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
17%
Draw
25%
Away Win
58%
Goals
Over 1.5
78%
Under 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
53%
Under 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
31%
Under 3.5
69%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
42%
Away or Draw
83%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Critical weakening for Atlético: Due to the absence of Julián Alvarez and Antoine Griezmann, only about 32% of the season's goal-scoring threat is available
- Gap in quality and form: Atlético (3rd place) is qualitatively superior to the relegation-threatened Rayo (18th place) and shows a positive form trend, while Rayo's offense is struggling
- Historical dominance: Atlético Madrid is undefeated in the last five head-to-head matches (4 wins, 1 draw) and has a goal difference of 16-4
Risk Factors
- Defensive vulnerability away from home: Atlético Madrid concedes an average of 1.43 goals in away games, significantly more than at home
- Potential fatigue for the visitors: Atlético Madrid has had only 7 days of rest since their last match, whereas Rayo Vallecano had a 14-day break
Overview
Rayo Vallecano, in 18th place with 22 points, hosts Atlético Madrid, third in the table with 45 points
The La Liga match will take place on February 15, 2026, at 4:15 PM at the Estadio de Vallecas
It's a clash between a relegation candidate and a team fighting for Champions League spots, with the visitors as clear favorites
Form
Rayo Vallecano is in a form crisis with a record of WLLLL
They have won only one of their last five matches and have lost the last four consecutively
Atlético Madrid's form is mixed with WLDWL
They managed to win two of their last five games, with one draw and two losses
Statistics
Offensively, Atlético Madrid is significantly superior, scoring an average of 1.65 goals per game, while Rayo Vallecano is at just 0.82
Rayo has failed to score in 10 of their 22 league games this season
Defensively, Atlético's class is also evident, conceding only 0.78 goals per game compared to Rayo's 1.36
Atlético has kept 10 clean sheets this season, whereas Rayo has managed only 6
Head-to-Head
Atlético Madrid has clearly dominated recent head-to-head encounters
In the last five meetings, Atlético has secured four wins and one draw, with Rayo failing to win any
The goal difference of 16-4 in favor of Atlético underscores their superiority
The last match ended in a 3-2 victory for Atlético
Key Players
For Rayo Vallecano, attackers Jorge de Frutos with 7 season goals and Álvaro García with 3 goals and 3 assists are crucial
Isi Palazón has also contributed with 2 goals and 3 assists
For Atlético Madrid, Alexander Sørloth is the top scorer in the lineup with 7 season goals
Giuliano Simeone is a key playmaker with 2 goals and 5 assists, supported by Álex Baena with 2 goals and one assist
Goalkeepers
In goal for Rayo Vallecano is Augusto Batalla, whose team has kept 6 clean sheets this season
Atlético Madrid will have the experienced Jan Oblak in goal
His team has managed to keep 10 clean sheets in the current campaign
Influences
The match takes place at the Estadio de Vallecas
Rayo Vallecano has been rather harmless offensively at home, with only 0.8 goals per game
Atlético Madrid, on the other hand, is strong away from home, scoring an average of 1.71 goals per game
The last five matches at this stadium averaged 2.4 goals, with both teams scoring in 60% of the cases