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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Vélez Sarsfield - Gimnasia La Plata

05/11/2026, 12:30 AM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Vélez Sarsfield
1.4
Total xG
2.2
Gimnasia La Plata
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

12%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
VSGLP

Vélez Sarsfield

Attack strength (1.21x league average)
+0.36
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.18
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.03
Diego Valdés on the bench (0 goals, 5 assists)
Matías Pellegrini on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)

Gimnasia La Plata

3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.03
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.02
Nicolás Barros Schelotto not in squad (3 goals, 3 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 88% available)
Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.3 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Gimnasia La Plata: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Vélez Sarsfield with Claudio Baeza: 3.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Vélez Sarsfield: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 4
    Gimnasia La Plata: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 5
    Gimnasia La Plata: 78% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

31%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical analysis: Vélez Sarsfield has a home win probability of 46%
  • Gimnasia La Plata is in top form with 4 consecutive wins
  • Vélez Sarsfield currently scores more frequently (1.5) than their season average (1.3)
Risk Factors
  • Vélez Sarsfield is missing key players: Only 65% of usual goal threat is available without Diego Valdés (0G/5A) and Matías Pellegrini (3G/2A)
  • Vélez Sarsfield has drawn three consecutive matches in their last five games
  • Gimnasia La Plata dominated recent head-to-head encounters, winning 2 out of 3 matches
Overview

Vélez Sarsfield (3rd place, 28 points) host Gimnasia La Plata (6th place, 26 points) in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol

The match takes place on May 11, 2026, 2:30 AM

Vélez Sarsfield aims to solidify its top positions

Gimnasia La Plata could close the gap to Vélez with a win

Form

Vélez Sarsfield's form in the last five games is LWDDD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The team achieved 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss during this period

The last appearance ended in a draw, which is their third consecutive draw

Gimnasia La Plata is in strong form with a record of LWWWW

They have 4 wins and 1 loss in their last five matches

The team has won their last four games in a row

Statistics

Vélez Sarsfield scored an average of 1.13 goals per game and conceded 0.75 goals per game this season

The team kept 7 clean sheets

In home games, the goal average is 1.12 goals scored and 0.75 goals conceded

Gimnasia La Plata averaged 1.19 goals scored and 1.19 goals conceded per match

The team achieved 5 clean sheets

Away from home, Gimnasia La Plata averages 1.14 goals scored and 1.29 goals conceded

Head-to-Head

In the 3 previous head-to-head matches, Vélez Sarsfield secured 1 win and Gimnasia La Plata claimed 2 wins

There were no draws

The goal difference of 5:2 favors Gimnasia La Plata

Gimnasia La Plata won the last encounter on November 10, 2025, with a score of 2:0

Key Players

Florián Monzón, an attacker for Vélez Sarsfield, scored 6 goals this season

In his last 5 games, he scored 3 times with stable form

Midfielder Manuel Lanzini recorded 3 season goals, his form is currently declining

Lucas Robertone, also a midfielder, scored 1 season goal and shows a rising form

For Gimnasia La Plata, attacker Marcelo Torres leads with 7 goals, 3 of which in the last 5 games with stable form

Agustín Auzmendi, also in attack, contributed 2 goals and 2 assists and shows a rising form

Alexis Steimbach in midfield has 4 assists this season, 2 of them in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Vélez Sarsfield goalkeeper Álvaro Montero has recorded 7 clean sheets this season

Gimnasia La Plata's goalkeeper, Nelson Insfrán, has 5 clean sheets and shows a rising form

Influences

Vélez Sarsfield shows a solid home defense with an average of 0.75 goals conceded per home game

Gimnasia La Plata averages 1.14 goals scored per away match

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