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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Argentinos Juniors - Lanús

05/10/2026, 01:15 AM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Argentinos Juniors
1.7
Total xG
2.5
Lanús
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:0

13%

1:1

13%

2:0

12%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
AJLAN

Argentinos Juniors

Attack strength (1.48x league average)
+0.94
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.42
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.16
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.03
Iván Morales on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.3 goals/match)

Lanús

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.35
Declining form (0.5 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.26
Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.26
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.15
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.4 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.45
-0.45
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Lanús with Agustín Cardozo: 1.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Argentinos Juniors: 77% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Argentinos Juniors with Diego Porcel: 6.9 goals/90 min. Without: 2.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Argentinos Juniors: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    Lanús: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

57%

Draw

27%

Away Win

16%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

84%

Away or Draw

43%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The analysis forecasts a home win with 57% probability and 1.68 expected home goals
  • Home Strength and Form: Argentinos Juniors displays stable form with strong home defensive performance (avg. 0.44 goals conceded), while Lanús' goal production has stalled
  • Head-to-Head: Argentinos Juniors has won both previous encounters against Lanús, indicating historical dominance
Risk Factors
  • Lanús' Offense: Lanús' goal production has recently stalled, averaging 0.5 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.4
  • Lanús' Shots on Target: Lanús registered an average of only 3.4 shots on target per game in their last 5 matches
  • Argentinos' Recent Defense: Argentinos Juniors has recently conceded an average of 1.6 goals per game, which is higher than their season average of 1.0
Overview

Argentinos Juniors (3rd place, 29 points) host Lanús (6th place, 24 points) in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol. The match is scheduled for May 10, 2026, at 1:30 AM. Argentinos Juniors aims to solidify their position in the top half of the table, while Lanús looks to close the gap to the leading teams.

Form

The home side, Argentinos Juniors, displays a stable form across all competitions with W-L-W-W-L. This translates to 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches. Their last result was a loss. Lanús, on the other hand, shows a form of D-W-L-D-D, with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches, including two consecutive draws. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Statistics

Argentinos Juniors have scored an average of 1.06 goals per game and conceded 0.81 goals this season. At home, they are defensively strong with an average of 0.44 goals conceded and 6 clean sheets. Lanús has a season average of 1.13 goals scored and 0.94 goals conceded. Away from home, they have conceded an average of 1.25 goals. Argentinos Juniors had both teams score in 7 matches, while Lanús had it in 6 matches. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 5 of Argentinos Juniors' matches and 6 of Lanús' matches. Argentinos Juniors scores consistently (avg. 1.4 goals per game). Lanús' goal production has stalled (avg. 0.5 goals), with a season average of 1.4.

Head-to-Head

In the 2 previous head-to-head encounters between Argentinos Juniors and Lanús, Argentinos Juniors has won both matches. The goal difference stands at 4:1 in favor of Argentinos Juniors. The last meeting on March 27, 2026, ended in a 2-1 victory for Argentinos Juniors, highlighting the home team's recent dominance.

Key Players

For Argentinos Juniors, Tomás Molina (attacker) with 3 season goals and 2 goals in his last 5 games, Sebastián Prieto (defender) with 1 season goal and 2 assists, and Hernán López Muñoz (midfielder) with 2 season goals and 2 assists are key players. For Lanús, Dylan Aquino (attacker) with 5 season goals, Ramiro Carrera (midfielder) with 2 season goals and 3 assists (including 1 goal in last 5), and Marcelino Moreno (midfielder) with 3 season goals and 1 assist are notable.

Goalkeepers

Brayan Josué Cortés Fernández, the goalkeeper for Argentinos Juniors, has played 16 games this season and kept 8 clean sheets. For Lanús, Nahuel Losada has been in goal for 14 games and achieved 7 clean sheets.

Influences

Argentinos Juniors shows a solid performance at home with an average of 1.11 goals scored and only 0.44 goals conceded per home game. They have kept a clean sheet in 6 home matches. Lanús has scored an average of 1.12 goals away, but also conceded 1.25 goals per away game and achieved only 2 clean sheets.

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