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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Boca Juniors - Huracán

05/09/2026, 10:00 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
Boca Juniors
1.1
Total xG
1.8
Huracán
0.8
Most Likely Scores

0:0

18%

1:0

16%

1:1

15%

0:1

10%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
BJHUR

Boca Juniors

Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.52
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.07
Milton Giménez  on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Alan Velasco  on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)

Huracán

Attack strength (1.2x league average)
-0.34
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.20
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.19
Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.05
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

Low-scoring league (2 goals/match)
-0.45
-0.45
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Boca Juniors: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Boca Juniors: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Huracán with Thaiel Peralta: 0.9 goals/90 min. Without: 5.7 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Boca Juniors with Alan Velasco : 3.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

35%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

56%

Under 1.5

44%

Over 2.5

28%

Under 2.5

72%

Over 3.5

11%

Under 3.5

89%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

65%

Both Score

Yes

37%

No

63%

Key Factors
  • Boca Juniors are in strong form with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5 games
  • Boca Juniors demonstrate very stable home defense, conceding an average of 0.5 goals per home game
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Boca Juniors with a 41% probability and 1.08 expected home goals
Risk Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a draw with a probability of 35%
  • Huracán has improved offensively, currently scoring more often (2.0 goals) than their season average (1.4 goals)
  • Boca Juniors will be without the unlisted players Milton Giménez (3 goals, 0 assists) and Alan Velasco (2 goals, 1 assist)
Overview

Boca Juniors (2nd place, 30 points) host Huracán (7th place, 22 points)

Liga Profesional de Fútbol match on May 9, 2026, 12:00 AM

Boca Juniors aim to maintain their position in the upper league ranks

Form

Boca Juniors show strong form with WDWWW (4 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses)

Their last five games include: a 2-1 win against Central Cordoba SdE, a 4-0 win against Defensa y Justicia, a 1-0 win against River Plate, a 1-1 draw against Independiente, and a 1-0 win against Talleres Córdoba

Huracán show mixed form with WWDLD (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss)

Their last five games include: a 0-0 draw against Racing Club, a 1-2 loss against Argentinos Juniors, a 1-1 draw against Tigre, a 3-1 win against Rosario Central, and a 3-0 win against Gimnasia La Plata

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Boca Juniors averages 1.33 home goals scored and 0.5 home goals conceded

Huracán averages 1.0 away goals scored and 0.83 away goals conceded

Boca Juniors kept 9 clean sheets this season and both teams scored in 7 matches

Huracán kept 7 clean sheets this season and both teams scored in 8 matches

Head-to-Head

There have been 3 head-to-head matches between Boca Juniors and Huracán

Boca Juniors won 1 match, Huracán won 1 match, and 1 match ended in a draw

The goal difference in these encounters is 2:2

The last encounter was on July 27, 2025, with Huracán winning 1-0

Key Players

For Boca Juniors, Miguel Merentiel, Leandro Paredes, and Adam Bareiro are important players

Miguel Merentiel scored 5 goals and provided 2 assists this season, with 1 goal in the last 5 games

Leandro Paredes contributed 2 goals and 3 assists this season, with 1 goal in the last 5 games

Adam Bareiro scored 3 goals and 1 assist this season, with 2 goals in the last 5 games

For Huracán, Jordy Caicedo, Óscar Cortés, and Facundo Waller are key players

Jordy Caicedo scored 8 goals this season and netted twice in the last 5 games

Óscar Cortés provided 4 assists this season and one assist in the last 5 games

Facundo Waller scored 1 goal this season and one goal in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Leandro Brey of Boca Juniors has played 5 matches this season

Hernán Galíndez of Huracán has played 15 matches this season

Boca Juniors recorded 9 clean sheets this season

Huracán recorded 7 clean sheets this season

Influences

Boca Juniors shows a strong home defense with an average of 0.5 goals conceded per home game

Huracán's offense averages 1.0 goals scored away from home

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