Liga Profesional de FĂștbol
River Plate - San Lorenzo
05/10/2026, 10:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.4
0.7
1:0
14%2:0
13%1:1
12%0:0
11%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
River Plate
San Lorenzo
League
The Lab
- 1River Plate: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2River Plate: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)
- 3San Lorenzo: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- 4San Lorenzo with Gregorio RodrĂguez: 2.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 5River Plate with Juan Fernando Quintero: 6.7 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
59%
Draw
27%
Away Win
14%
Goals
Over 1.5
70%
Under 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
43%
Under 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
86%
Away or Draw
41%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Key Factors
- Critical absence: San Lorenzo lacks a significant portion of goal threat, with only 48% of the usual starting XI's goal threat available without Alexis Cuello and Facundo Gulli
- Mathematical favoritism: The analysis predicts a home win for River Plate with a 59% probability, with expected 1.67 home goals
- Form and Advanced Stats: River Plate shows 3 wins in the last 5 games and a stable form, while San Lorenzo has a negative form trend with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss
Risk Factors
- Historical record: All 3 head-to-head matches between River Plate and San Lorenzo ended in a draw, indicating a tendency for close games
- Limited data availability: Data on total duels from the last 5 games is missing, as are specific historical venue data and weather information
Overview
River Plate (2nd place, 29 points) host San Lorenzo (7th place, 22 points) in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol on May 10, 2026, 7:00 PM. River Plate aim to solidify their top table position, while San Lorenzo look to stay connected to the leading group.
Form
River Plate's form in the last 5 games is WWLWL, which means 3 wins and 2 losses. San Lorenzo's form in their last 5 games is WDDWL, representing 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
River Plate averages 1.38 goals scored per game this season and concedes 0.75 goals. San Lorenzo averages 0.88 goals scored and 0.88 goals conceded per game. River Plate kept 7 clean sheets, while San Lorenzo managed 9. Both teams scored in 5 of River Plate's games and 6 of San Lorenzo's. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 5 of River Plate's matches and 3 of San Lorenzo's. At home, River Plate scores an average of 1.4 goals and concedes 0.8 goals. Away, San Lorenzo scores an average of 0.8 goals and concedes 0.6 goals.
Head-to-Head
In 3 head-to-head matches, there have been no wins for River Plate and no wins for San Lorenzo. All 3 encounters ended in a draw. The goal difference is even at 1:1. The last match between River Plate and San Lorenzo ended in a 0-0 draw on July 27, 2025.
Key Players
For River Plate, Facundo Colidio stands out with 3 goals and 0 assists in the last 5 games (season average 3 goals, 1 assist) and a rising form trend. SebastiĂĄn Driussi scored 2 goals and 0 assists in the last 5 games (season average 4 goals, 0 assists). TomĂĄs GalvĂĄn also showed a rising form with 2 goals and 0 assists in the last 5 games (season average 2 goals, 1 assist).
For San Lorenzo, Rodrigo Auzmendi is relevant with 1 goal and 0 assists in the last 5 games (season average 3 goals, 0 assists). Manuel Insaurralde scored once in the last 5 games (season average 1 goal, 0 assists). MatĂas Reali contributed 0 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games (season average 0 goals, 1 assist).
Goalkeepers
River Plate's goalkeeper, Santiago BeltrĂĄn, has recorded 7 clean sheets this season. San Lorenzo's goalkeeper Orlando Gill has managed 9 clean sheets this season.
Influences
River Plate scores an average of 1.4 goals at home and concedes 0.8 goals, indicating a certain home advantage in offense. San Lorenzo scores an average of 0.8 goals away and concedes only 0.6 goals, suggesting a solid away defense. No data on weather influence or specific venue history is available.