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Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Talleres Córdoba - Belgrano

05/09/2026, 07:30 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Talleres Córdoba
1.1
Total xG
1.9
Belgrano
0.8
Most Likely Scores

0:0

17%

1:1

15%

1:0

14%

0:1

10%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
TCBEL

Talleres Córdoba

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.09
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.03
Full strength squad available

Belgrano

3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.10
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.09
Franco Vázquez on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 100% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.44
-0.44
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Belgrano with Federico Ricca: 0.5 goals/90 min. Without: 2.6 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Talleres Córdoba: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 3
    Talleres Córdoba with Ulises Ortegoza: 2.7 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Belgrano: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

35%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

59%

Under 1.5

41%

Over 2.5

30%

Under 2.5

70%

Over 3.5

13%

Under 3.5

87%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

65%

Both Score

Yes

39%

No

61%

Key Factors
  • Slight favoritism for Talleres Córdoba with a home win probability of 40%
  • Talleres Córdoba has a more stable defense at home, conceding only 0.62 goals on average
  • Belgrano averaged only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
Risk Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a low-scoring game with only 1.09 expected home goals and 0.82 expected away goals
  • All 4 head-to-head matches historically ended in a draw, which could indicate another draw
Overview

Talleres Córdoba (4th place, 26 points) host Belgrano (5th place, 26 points) in a crucial league match in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol

The match will take place on May 9, 2026, 8:30 PM

Both teams have identical points and are fighting for higher league positions

Form

Talleres Córdoba shows stable form in their last five league games with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Their last encounter ended in a draw

Belgrano achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five league games

Belgrano won their last match

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Talleres Córdoba scores an average of 1.06 goals and concedes 0.81 goals per game this season

At home, they average 1.12 goals scored and 0.62 goals conceded

Belgrano also scores an average of 1.06 goals and concedes 0.81 goals per game

Away, their average is 1.0 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded

Talleres Córdoba kept 6 clean sheets, while Belgrano kept 8

Both teams scored in 8 of Talleres Córdoba's games and 6 of Belgrano's games

There were over 2.5 goals in 6 games for both teams

Head-to-Head

In the previous 4 head-to-head matches, there was neither a home win nor an away win

All 4 encounters ended in a draw

Talleres Córdoba and Belgrano each scored 1 goal

The last duel on March 15, 2026, ended in a 0-0 draw

The head-to-head record is thus even

Key Players

For Talleres Córdoba, Ronaldo Martínez (3 goals, 1 assist), Alexandro Maidana (2 goals, 1 assist), and Augusto Schott (3 goals, 0 assists) are important attacking players

Ronaldo Martínez is in stable form with 1 goal in the last 5 games, Alexandro Maidana improved his form with 2 goals

For Belgrano, Lucas Zelarayán (4 goals, 1 assist), Lucas Passerini (0 goals, 4 assists), and Francisco González Metilli (2 goals, 0 assists) are crucial

Francisco González Metilli scored 1 goal in his last 3 appearances

Goalkeepers

Guido Herrera of Talleres Córdoba recorded 6 clean sheets with a season average rating of 7.10

Thiago Cardozo of Belgrano achieved 8 clean sheets, with a season average rating of 6.97

Influences

Talleres Córdoba shows a more stable defense at home with an average of 0.62 goals conceded

Belgrano concedes an average of 1.33 goals away

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