Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Independiente Rivadavia - Unión Santa Fe
05/10/2026, 12:30 AM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.5
1.0
1:1
14%2:1
9%2:0
9%1:2
6%3:1
5%What influences the xG?
Independiente Rivadavia
Unión Santa Fe
League
The Lab
- 1Independiente Rivadavia with Matías Fernández: 3.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Unión Santa Fe: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 3Independiente Rivadavia: 38% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 16)
- 4Unión Santa Fe with Augusto Solari: 5.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1.9 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
48%
Draw
29%
Away Win
23%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
75%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
77%
Away or Draw
52%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- Independiente Rivadavia leads the league and shows a positive form trend.
- Independiente Rivadavia's strong home offense (1.9 goals per home game) meets Unión Santa Fe's weak away defense (1.67 goals conceded per away game).
- The mathematical analysis assigns a clear favorite role for a home win with 48%.
Risk Factors
- The probability of a draw is 29% according to mathematical analysis.
- The head-to-head record is historically even, with the last encounter ending in a 2:2 draw.
Overview
Independiente Rivadavia (1st place, 34 points) host Unión Santa Fe (8th place, 21 points) in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol. The match takes place on May 9, 2026, 9:30 PM. Independiente Rivadavia aims to solidify their top position, while Unión Santa Fe seeks to stay connected to the upper ranks.
Form
Independiente Rivadavia is in good form with WWDWD in their last five matches, consisting of 3 wins and 2 draws. Their last game was a draw (D 1-1 against Aldosivi).
Unión Santa Fe recently showed the form WLLDD, with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses. Their last two games ended in draws (D 1-1 against Talleres Córdoba and D 2-2 against Vélez Sarsfield).
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Independiente Rivadavia scored an average of 1.81 goals per game this season and conceded 0.94 goals. At home, they average 1.9 goals scored and 1 goal conceded. The team kept 4 clean sheets, both teams scored in 11 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 8 matches.
Unión Santa Fe averages 1.5 goals scored per game and concedes 1.25 goals. Away from home, the average is 1.44 goals scored and 1.67 goals conceded. They achieved 5 clean sheets, both teams scored in 9 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 8 matches.
Head-to-Head
In the 3 previous head-to-head matches, each team secured 1 win and there was 1 draw. Independiente Rivadavia scored 4 goals, while Unión Santa Fe scored 3 goals. The last encounter on September 20, 2025, ended in a 2:2 draw.
Key Players
For Independiente Rivadavia, Sebastián Villa (0 goals, 6 assists, 3 assists in last 5 games, rating 7.61), Fabrizio Sartori (6 goals, 1 goal in last 5 games, rating 6.66), and José Florentín (3 goals, 1 goal in last 5 games, rating 7.24) are important players.
At Unión Santa Fe, Julián Palacios (3 goals, 5 assists, 1 goal, 2 assists in last 5 games, rating 6.86), Cristian Tarragona (7 goals, 1 goal in last 5 games, rating 6.73), and Marcelo Estigarribia (4 goals, 2 goals in last 5 games, rating 7.07) are key figures.
Goalkeepers
Nicolás Bolcato of Independiente Rivadavia played 15 season matches with an average rating of 6.81 and 4 clean sheets this season. In the last 5 games, his rating was 7.17.
Matías Mansilla of Unión Santa Fe made 16 season appearances with an average rating of 6.78 and 5 clean sheets this season. In the last 5 games, his rating was 6.23.
Influences
Independiente Rivadavia shows strong offense at home, averaging 1.9 goals scored per home game. Unión Santa Fe concedes an average of 1.67 goals per away game.