Friendly International

Korea Republic - El Salvador

06/04/2026, 01:00 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Korea Republic
1.7
Total xG
2.7
El Salvador
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
KRES

Korea Republic

Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean
+0.31
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 23 vs 90, 67 places gap)
+0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.01
Heung-min Son on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)

El Salvador

Standings disadvantage (pos 90 vs 23, 67 places gap)
-0.17
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
+0.05
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.33
+0.33
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Korea Republic with Hyeon-gyu Oh: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 3.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Korea Republic: 50% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 12)

  • 3
    Korea Republic: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

27%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

46%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Favorite Role: The mathematical analysis clearly favors Korea Republic with a 54% home win probability and 1.73 predicted goals
  • Home Strength: Korea Republic won their last home game decisively 5-0 and averages 1.67 goals at home
  • Tactical Superiority: Korea Republic shows dominance in possession (57%) and averages 4.8 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • Limited Offense: El Salvador averaged only 2.5 shots on target in their last 2 games (few attempts)
  • Vulnerable Away Defense: El Salvador conceded an average of 2.0 goals per away game (based on one game)
Overview

Korea Republic host El Salvador in a Friendly International at Seoul World Cup Stadium on June 4, 2026, 2:00 AM

The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 54% probability

A draw is expected with 27% and an away win with 20%

Form

Korea Republic's form in their last five matches is WWLLW

This equates to 3 wins and 2 losses

El Salvador achieved two draws (DD) in their last two matches

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Korea Republic averages 1.67 goals scored per game and also concedes 1.67 goals per game

At home, the average is 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded

El Salvador averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded this season (based on one game)

Away from home, El Salvador averages 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 goals conceded (based on one game)

The home team Korea Republic kept 1 clean sheet in 3 home games

At Seoul World Cup Stadium, an average of 5.0 goals were scored in one game

Both teams scored in 0 of 1 matches at this stadium

There was 1 of 1 matches with over 2.5 goals at Seoul World Cup Stadium

Korea Republic scores consistently (~1.7 goals per game) according to advanced statistics

El Salvador scores consistently (~1.5 goals per game)

Head-to-Head

There are no previous direct encounters between Korea Republic and El Salvador recorded in the available data

Key Players

For Korea Republic, Gue-sung Cho is an important attacker with 2 season goals

Hee-chan Hwang contributed 1 goal and 1 assist this season

Dong-gyeong Lee has 1 assist this season

Not nominated for Korea Republic is Heung-min Son (2 goals/0 assists)

For El Salvador, Nathan Ordaz is an important attacker with 2 season goals

Goalkeepers

Korea Republic's goalkeeper, Seung-gyu Kim, has 1 appearance this season

Korea Republic kept 1 clean sheet this season

El Salvador's goalkeeper, Mario GonzĂĄlez, had no appearances this season

El Salvador failed to keep a clean sheet this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Seoul World Cup Stadium

At Seoul World Cup Stadium, an average of 5.0 goals were scored in one game

At this stadium, both teams scored in 0 of 1 matches and there were over 2.5 goals in 1 of 1 matches

Korea Republic scored an average of 1.67 goals at home and conceded 1.33 goals

El Salvador scored an average of 2.0 goals away and conceded 2.0 goals (based on one game)

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