Match report →
Korea Republic – El Salvador1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Korea Republic
1.73
Total xG
2.70
El Salvador
0.98
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Korea Republic | El Salvador |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.33 | +0.33 |
| Small sample (2 matches) - regression to mean | +0.31 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 90 vs 23, 67 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 23 vs 90, 67 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Heung-min Son on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Favorite Role: The mathematical analysis clearly favors Korea Republic with a 54% home win probability and 1.73 predicted goals
- Home Strength: Korea Republic won their last home game decisively 5-0 and averages 1.67 goals at home
- Tactical Superiority: Korea Republic shows dominance in possession (57%) and averages 4.8 shots on target
Risks
- Limited Offense: El Salvador averaged only 2.5 shots on target in their last 2 games (few attempts)
- Vulnerable Away Defense: El Salvador conceded an average of 2.0 goals per away game (based on one game)
All probabilities
Result
Korea Republic54%
Draw27%
El Salvador20%
Double chance
Korea Republic or draw80%
El Salvador or draw46%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Korea Republic with Hyeon-gyu Oh: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 3.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Korea Republic: 50% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 12)
- Korea Republic: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Korea Republic 3-4-2-1 · El Salvador 5-3-2
Korea Republic
- 12 S. Kim
- 18 H. Lee
- 2 M. Kim
- 10 G. Lee
- 16 Seol Young-Woo
- 24 I. Hwang
- 8 J. Lee
- 7 T. Lee
- 11 D. Lee
- 20 H. Hwang
- 14 K. Cho
El Salvador
- 1 M. Martínez
- 15 J. Valladares
- 5 R. Clavel
- 2 J. Sibrian Molina
- 4 J. Cruz Cortez
- 16 D. Flores
- 20 M. Cerritos Saravia
- 10 N. Ordaz
- 7 L. Vásquez Velásquez
Substitutes
- 19 J. Castrop
- 17 K. Lee
- 23 J. Eom
- 4 S. Paik
- 26 H. Yang
- 3 H. Oh
- 13 H. Son
- 22 J. Park
- 15 M. Kim
- 9 T. Kim
- 25 J. Kim
- 1 B. Song
- 21 H. Cho
- 5 W. Cho
- 16 D. Flores Sánchez
- 17 J. Henriquez Ferrufino
- 8 B. Landaverde Alvarez
- 14 C. Martínez Mena
- 19 R. Tejada
- 3 I. Portillo Molina
- 12 H. Díaz
- 11 M. Gil
- 87 B. Villalobos Segovia
- 18 G. Barrera Pedroza
- 6 K. Reyes Ortiz
- 9 C. Gil Hurtado
- 21 A. Henríquez Ferrufino
- 23 L. Menjívar
- 98 A. Cano
- 13 D. Cruz Cerros
- 26 D. Ortez Argueta
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