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Netherlands – Uzbekistan2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Netherlands
1.47
Total xG
2.47
Uzbekistan
1.01
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Netherlands | Uzbekistan |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −1.04 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.61 | |
| Attack strength (1.54x league average) | +0.60 | |
| Small sample (1 matches), regression to mean | −0.46 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.33 | +0.33 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 54 vs 7, 47 places gap) | −0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Declining form (1.6 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 54, 47 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1 league avg) | −0.01 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Uzbekistan's low available goal production (only 33% of seasonal goals from the starting XI) could impact their offense
- According to mathematical analysis, the Netherlands have a 46% home win probability and are expected to score 1.47 goals
- The Johan Cruijff Arena favors high-scoring matches with an average of 3.4 goals per game and 100% Over 2.5
Risks
- The Netherlands have 67% of their seasonal goal production available through the current starting eleven
- Limited data availability for Uzbekistan's xG values in their last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Netherlands46%
Draw30%
Uzbekistan24%
Double chance
Netherlands or draw76%
Uzbekistan or draw54%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
11%
0:0
10%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Netherlands with Memphis Depay: 0 goals/game. Without: 1.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Uzbekistan with Khozhiakbar Alizhonov: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (4 of 6 games)
- Netherlands: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Netherlands: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Netherlands 4-3-3 · Uzbekistan 3-4-2-1
Netherlands
- 1 B. Verbruggen
- 22 D. Dumfries
- 6 J. van Hecke
- 4 V. van Dijk
- 15 M. van de Ven
- 8 R. Gravenberch
- 21 F. de Jong
- 14 T. Reijnders
- 24 C. Summerville
- 18 D. Malen
- 11 C. Gakpo
Uzbekistan
- 1 U. Yusupov
- 5 R. Ashurmatov
- 2 A. Khusanov
- 27 J. O'rozov
- 4 F. Sayfiyev
- 6 A. Mozgovoy
- 7 O. Shukurov
- 13 S. Nasrullayev
- 22 A. Fayzullayev
- 11 O. Urunov
- 14 E. Shomurodov
Substitutes
- 12 M. Wieffer
- 23 M. Flekken
- 19 B. Brobbey
- 13 R. Roefs
- 7 J. Kluivert
- 5 N. Aké
- 25 J. Hato
- 3 M. de Roon
- 16 G. Til
- 9 W. Weghorst
- 17 N. Lang
- 20 T. Koopmeiners
- 26 Q. Timber
- 10 M. Depay
- 26 U. Rahmonaliyev
- 23 S. Esanov
- 8 J. Iskanderov
- 25 A. Ulmasaliev
- 29 R. Jiyanov
- 17 D. Khamdamov
- 15 U. Eshmuradov
- 12 A. Nematov
- 18 A. Kakhramonjon
- 21 I. Sergeev
- 16 B. Ergashev
- 24 B. Karimov
- 30 S. Temirov
- 28 A. Amonov
- 20 J. Jaloliddinov
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