Friendly International

Netherlands - Uzbekistan

06/08/2026, 06:45 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Netherlands
1.5
Total xG
2.5
Uzbekistan
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%
What influences the xG?
NETUZB

Netherlands

Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-1.04
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.61
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.16
Declining form (1.6 vs 2.1 season average)
-0.16
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 54, 47 places gap)
+0.10
Full strength squad available

Uzbekistan

Attack strength (1.54x league average)
+0.60
Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
-0.46
Standings disadvantage (pos 54 vs 7, 47 places gap)
-0.18
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.14
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1 league avg)
-0.01
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.33
+0.33
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Netherlands with Memphis Depay: 0 goals/game. Without: 1.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Uzbekistan with Khozhiakbar Alizhonov: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (4 of 6 games)

  • 3
    Netherlands: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 4
    Netherlands: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

30%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Uzbekistan's low available goal production (only 33% of seasonal goals from the starting XI) could impact their offense
  • According to mathematical analysis, the Netherlands have a 46% home win probability and are expected to score 1.47 goals
  • The Johan Cruijff Arena favors high-scoring matches with an average of 3.4 goals per game and 100% Over 2.5
Risk Factors
  • The Netherlands have 67% of their seasonal goal production available through the current starting eleven
  • Limited data availability for Uzbekistan's xG values in their last 5 games
Overview

The Netherlands host Uzbekistan in a Friendly International match at the Johan Cruijff Arena. The game is scheduled for June 8, 2026, 7:45 PM

Form

The Netherlands' recent form across all competitions is DWWDL (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss)

Uzbekistan has also achieved DWWDL in their last five matches (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss)

The last game for both teams ended in a loss

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

The Netherlands averaged 1.0 home goals scored and 1.0 home goals conceded per game this season

Uzbekistan averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded per game this season

The Johan Cruijff Arena is known for high-scoring matches

An average of 3.4 goals per game were scored here, both teams scored in 80% of matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 100% of games

Head-to-Head

There are no previous head-to-head encounters between these two teams in the dataset

Key Players

Virgil van Dijk (Defender) for the Netherlands scored 2 goals in his last 5 games with an average rating of 7.07 and shows stable form

Donyell Malen (Attacker) contributed 3 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games, his form is rising

Cody Gakpo (Attacker) recorded 1 goal in his last 5 games, his form is declining

Eldor Shomurodov (Attacker) for Uzbekistan scored 4 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games with an average rating of 7.17, his form is rising

Oston Urunov (Attacker) contributed 2 goals in his last 4 games, his form is rising

Abbosbek Fayzullaev (Attacker) recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 4 games, his form is also rising

Goalkeepers

Bart Verbruggen has played 2 season games in goal for the Netherlands

The team has kept 0 clean sheets so far

Utkir Yusupov has not played any games for Uzbekistan this season

Uzbekistan has achieved 1 clean sheet this season

Influences

The Netherlands' home advantage is supported by an average of 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded at home

The Johan Cruijff Arena shows a high goal rate of 3.4 goals per game

In 80% of matches, both teams scored, and 100% ended with over 2.5 goals

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.