Match report →
Haiti – Peru1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Haiti
1.51
Total xG
2.56
Peru
1.04
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Haiti | Peru |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.92 | |
| Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean | +0.55 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.37 | +0.37 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 87 vs 48, 39 places gap) | −0.27 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 48 vs 87, 39 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Pipeline Prediction: Mathematical analysis shows a clear favorite role for Haiti with a home win probability of 47%
- Tactical Difference: Haiti shows more offensive play with an average of 4.5 shots on target, while Peru adopts a counter-attacking approach (Avg. 2.2 shots on target)
- Form Advantage: Haiti achieved two wins and one draw in their last four matches, while Peru remained winless in their last five games (two draws, three losses)
Risks
- Short Recovery Time: Haiti had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Low Shots on Target: Peru averaged 2.2 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating few attempts on goal
- High Goals Conceded Rate: Peru conceded an average of 2.00 goals per game this season
All probabilities
Result
Haiti47%
Draw29%
Peru24%
Double chance
Haiti or draw76%
Peru or draw53%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes52%
No48%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
9%
1:2
6%
2:2
5%
Lineups
Haiti 4-4-2 · Peru 4-2-3-1
Haiti
- 1 J. Placide
- 2 C. Arcus
- 4 R. Ade
- 5 H. Delcroix
- 8 M. Expérience
- 11 L. Deedson
- 10 J. Bellegarde
- 17 D. Jean Jacques
- 15 R. Providence
- 20 F. Pierrot
- 18 W. Isidor
Peru
- 1 P. Gallese Quiróz
- 22 O. Sonne
- 15 R. Garcés Mori
- 2 A. Barco Del Solar
- 4 M. López Lanfranco
- 18 A. Carrillo Díaz
- 8 E. Noriega
- 7 K. Cabrera Nakamura
- 11 J. Vélez Cedeño
- 17 J. Concha Gonzáles
- 27 J. Vidales Lature
Substitutes
- 21 J. Casimir
- 16 L. Joseph
- 22 J. Duverne
- 7 D. Etienne Jr.
- 24 W. Paugain
- 23 J. Duverger
- 3 K. Thermoncy
- 19 Y. Fortune
- 14 L. Pierre
- 9 D. Nazon
- 6 C. Sainte
- 12 A. Pierre
- 13 M. Lacroix
- 26 W. Pierre
- 25 D. Simon
- 24 B. Soyer
- 16 M. Lazo Zapata
- 3 F. Gruber
- 13 M. Huamán Asis
- 19 V. Yotún Flores
- 6 J. Pretell Panta
- 23 R. Vilca Betetta
- 20 M. Castro Rufino
- 9 A. Ugarriza Tello
- 14 A. Quiróz Figueroa
- 25 Matias Zegarra
- 12 A. Duarte Preuss
- 21 M. Cordova
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