La Liga
Real Madrid - Real Sociedad
02/14/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.0
3.5
1.5
1:1
10%2:1
9%2:2
7%1:2
7%2:0
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
49%
Draw
24%
Away Win
27%
Goals
Over 1.5
87%
Under 1.5
13%
Over 2.5
67%
Under 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
46%
Under 3.5
54%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
73%
Away or Draw
51%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
68%
No
32%
Key Factors
- League class difference: Real Madrid's perfect league form (WWWWW) meets Real Sociedad's winless streak (DDLLL)
- Visitors' defensive vulnerability: Real Madrid's solid home defense (0.58 goals conceded) faces Real Sociedad's weak away defense (1.75 goals conceded)
- Real Sociedad weakened: The visitors are missing key players Brais MĂ©ndez, Barrenetxea, and Kubo, leaving only 67% of their offensive output available
Risk Factors
- Major absences for Real Madrid: Despite good squad depth, the absence of top scorer K. Mbappé and midfielder J. Bellingham is a significant risk
- Unpredictable form of Real Sociedad: Although their league form is poor, the visitors are unbeaten in five games across all competitions, making them potentially dangerous
- High goal expectancy: The models predict a high probability of goals from both sides (68% BTTS), which could lead to an open and unpredictable match
Overview
Top clash in La Liga: Real Madrid (2nd place, 57 points) hosts Real Sociedad (8th place, 31 points)
The match takes place on February 14, 2026, at 9:00 PM at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Real Madrid is fighting for the top of the table, while Real Sociedad is looking to stay in touch with the European spots
Form
Real Madrid is in strong form from their last five competitive matches with 4 wins and 1 loss (WWLWW)
Real Sociedad is unbeaten in their last five matches across all competitions with 4 wins and 1 draw (WWDWW)
However, Real Sociedad's league form is concerning at DDLLL, while Real Madrid boasts a perfect WWWWW streak in the league
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Real Madrid has a potent offense, averaging 2.13 goals per game, and one of the league's best defenses (0.78 goals conceded per game)
At home, they are even more dominant, conceding just 0.58 goals on average
Real Sociedad scores 1.43 goals per game but is defensively vulnerable with 1.35 goals conceded
Especially away from home, Real Sociedad's defense is weak, letting in 1.75 goals per game
Both teams scored in 19 of Real Sociedad's 23 league games this season
Head-to-Head
Real Madrid clearly dominates the head-to-head record
In the last 5 encounters, Real Madrid won 4 and 1 was a draw
The goal difference is 11:5 in favor of the home team
The last meeting was a 2-1 victory for Real Madrid
Key Players
For Real Madrid, Vinicius Junior (6 season goals, 5 assists) and Arda GĂŒler (3 goals, 7 assists) are crucial attacking players
Federico Valverde has already contributed 6 assists
For Real Sociedad, Mikel Oyarzabal is in outstanding form, having scored 9 season goals, 5 of which came in the last five games
Goalkeepers
Real Madrid's Thibaut Courtois has kept a clean sheet in 11 of 23 matches this season
Ălex Remiro of Real Sociedad has managed to keep a clean sheet just once this season
Influences
The Estadio Santiago Bernabéu is a fortress for Real Madrid, where they average 2.08 goals scored and just 0.58 conceded per game
Recent matches at the stadium have been high-scoring, with an average of 4.0 goals per game
Both teams have scored in 60% of Real Madrid's last home games