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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

River Plate - Gimnasia La Plata

05/14/2026, 12:45 AM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
River Plate
1.6
Total xG
2.5
Gimnasia La Plata
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

1:2

5%
What influences the xG?
RPGLP

River Plate

Attack strength (1.52x league average)
+0.74
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.29
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.03
Ian Subiabre not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.5 goals/match)

Gimnasia La Plata

4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.04
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.02
Enzo MartĂ­nez not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.2 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.42
-0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Gimnasia La Plata: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Gimnasia La Plata: 5 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 3
    Gimnasia La Plata with Franco Torres: 4.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    River Plate with Juan Fernando Quintero: 4.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Gimnasia La Plata: 79% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

28%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

47%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for River Plate with a 53% probability
  • Gimnasia La Plata is in outstanding form with 5 consecutive wins
  • River Plate was possession-dominant in their last 5 games, averaging 6.0 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • Gimnasia La Plata had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Gimnasia La Plata averaged 3.6 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating limited offensive output
Overview

River Plate (2nd place, 29 points) hosts Gimnasia La Plata (6th place, 26 points)

Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match on May 14, 2026, 1:30 AM

River Plate is fighting for a top position, while Gimnasia La Plata aims to continue its upward trend

Form

River Plate's form in the last 5 games across all competitions is WLWLD

This represents 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Their last match ended in a 2-2 draw against San Lorenzo

Gimnasia La Plata shows impressive form with WWWWW in their last 5 games

This includes 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses

Most recently, Gimnasia La Plata secured a 1-0 away win against VĂ©lez Sarsfield

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

River Plate averages 1.41 goals scored and 0.82 goals conceded per game this season

At home, the average is 1.45 goals scored and 0.91 goals conceded

The team kept 7 clean sheets

River Plate maintained a consistent scoring rate, averaging 1.4 goals per game recently

Gimnasia La Plata averages 1.18 goals scored and 1.12 goals conceded per game

Away from home, the average is 1.12 goals scored and 1.12 goals conceded

Gimnasia La Plata recorded 6 clean sheets

Gimnasia La Plata is scoring more frequently recently (1.4 goals per game) compared to their season average (1.25 goals per game), showing a positive trend

Both teams scored in 6 of River Plate's matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 6 matches

For Gimnasia La Plata, both teams scored in 7 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 8 matches

In their last 5 games, River Plate showed a dominant ball possession of 68% and averaged 6.0 shots on target

Gimnasia La Plata adopted a counter-attacking approach in their last 5 games with 44% possession and averaged 3.6 shots on target

Head-to-Head

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, River Plate claimed 2 wins, 1 draw, and Gimnasia La Plata secured 1 win

River Plate scored 6 goals, while Gimnasia La Plata scored 2 goals

River Plate won the last encounter 2-0 on January 28, 2026

River Plate has been dominant in recent meetings

Key Players

For River Plate, Facundo Colidio (3 goals, 1 assist, rising form trend) and Marcos Acuña (1 goal, 1 assist, rising form trend) are key offensive players

Gonzalo Montiel is also influential as a defender with 4 goals and 1 assist

For Gimnasia La Plata, Marcelo Torres stands out as the top scorer with 8 goals and 1 assist

NicolĂĄs Barros Schelotto (3 goals, 3 assists) and AgustĂ­n Auzmendi (2 goals, 2 assists, rising form trend) are also important players

Goalkeepers

River Plate's goalkeeper Santiago BeltrĂĄn recorded 7 clean sheets this season

Gimnasia La Plata's goalkeeper Nelson InsfrĂĄn kept 6 clean sheets

Influences

River Plate averaged 1.45 goals scored and 0.91 goals conceded in home games

Gimnasia La Plata averaged 1.12 goals scored and 1.12 goals conceded in away games

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