Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Belgrano - Unión Santa Fe
05/12/2026, 10:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.3
1.0
1:1
15%0:0
12%1:0
11%0:1
9%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Belgrano
Unión Santa Fe
League
The Lab
- 1Belgrano with Federico Ricca: 0.5 goals/90 min. Without: 2.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Unión Santa Fe: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- 3Belgrano: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 4Unión Santa Fe: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
40%
Draw
32%
Away Win
28%
Goals
Over 1.5
68%
Under 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
40%
Under 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
20%
Under 3.5
80%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
72%
Away or Draw
60%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Key Factors
- Mathematical Prediction: The model predicts a home win probability of 40% for Belgrano
- Form and Home Strength: Belgrano shows better form with 3 wins and only 1 loss in the last 5 games and a strong home defense with only 0.5 goals conceded on average
- Attacking Trend: Belgrano is currently scoring more often (1.5 goals) than their season average (1.3 goals), indicating a rising attacking performance
Risk Factors
- Short recovery time: Belgrano had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Short recovery time: Unión Santa Fe had only 2 days of rest since their last match
- Offensive output: Belgrano averaged only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview
Belgrano (5th place, 26 points) host Unión Santa Fe (8th place, 21 points) in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol. The match takes place on May 12, 2026, 7:00 PM. It's a clash between two mid-table teams.
Form
Belgrano shows a form of WDLWW from their last five games (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). Unión Santa Fe's form in all competitions is LLDDW (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses). W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Belgrano averages 1.06 goals scored and 0.76 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they score 1.1 goals and concede only 0.5 goals per match. Unión Santa Fe averages 1.53 goals scored and 1.24 goals conceded. Away from home, they score 1.5 goals and concede 1.6 goals per match. Belgrano recorded 9 clean sheets, while Unión Santa Fe had 5. Both teams scored in 6 of Belgrano's games and 10 of Unión Santa Fe's. There were 6 Over 2.5 goals games for Belgrano and 9 for Unión Santa Fe.
Head-to-Head
In 3 head-to-head matches, there have been no wins for either team, but 3 draws. The goal difference is even at 2:2. The last encounter on November 17, 2025, ended in a 0:0 draw. The recent head-to-head record is even.
Key Players
For Belgrano, Francisco González Metilli showed rising form with 3 goals and 0 assists in 11 appearances (avg rating 7.06), scoring 2 goals in his last 3 games. Lucas Zelarayán contributed 4 goals and 1 assist in 15 appearances (avg rating 7.16), with recent declining form. Not nominated is Franco Vázquez (2 goals, 1 assist). For Unión Santa Fe, Cristian Tarragona stands out with 8 goals in 17 appearances (avg rating 7.11), including 2 goals in his last 5 games, though with declining form. Julián Palacios impressed with 3 goals and 6 assists in 16 appearances (avg rating 7.03), including 1 goal and 3 assists in his last 5 games. Marcelo Estigarribia contributed 4 goals and 1 assist in 16 appearances (avg rating 7.12), with 2 goals in his last 5 games.
Goalkeepers
Belgrano's goalkeeper Thiago Cardozo (17 appearances, avg rating 6.98) recorded 9 clean sheets this season, including 4 at home. Matías Mansilla, Unión Santa Fe's goalkeeper (17 appearances, avg rating 6.8), kept 5 clean sheets this season, but has yet to keep an away clean sheet.
Influences
Belgrano shows a solid home performance with an average of 1.1 goals scored and only 0.5 goals conceded per home game. Unión Santa Fe averages 1.5 goals scored away but also concedes 1.6 goals per away game, suggesting a more open playing style on the road.