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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Rosario Central - Racing Club

05/13/2026, 09:45 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Rosario Central
1.3
Total xG
2.4
Racing Club
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

10%

1:0

10%

2:1

8%

0:1

8%
What influences the xG?
RCRC

Rosario Central

Attack strength (1.49x league average)
+0.22
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.08
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
-0.08
JuliĂĄn FernĂĄndez not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)

Racing Club

Attack strength (1.31x league average)
+0.35
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.21
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 0.9 league avg)
+0.17
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.16
Santiago Solari on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
AdriĂĄn FernĂĄndez on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Racing Club with Franco Pardo: 1.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Racing Club: 77% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Rosario Central with Emanuel Coronel: 2.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Rosario Central: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Racing Club: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

31%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Rosario Central shows a positive form development in recent matches, with goal production increasing from an average of 1.5 goals per game to 1.8 goals.
  • Racing Club, however, is experiencing a negative form trend in goal production, which has dropped from an average of 1.3 goals per game to 0.8 goals, with only 2.4 shots on target per game on average.
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 39% for Rosario Central, indicating a slight advantage for the home team.
Risk Factors
  • Both teams have had only 3 days of rest since their last match, suggesting potential fatigue.
  • Rosario Central's goalkeeper Conan Ledesma shows a declining form trend with a rating delta of -0.34.
  • Racing Club has key players with declining form trends, such as Gabriel Rojas (-0.26) and Marcos Rojo (-0.21).
Overview

Rosario Central (4th place, 28 points) hosts Racing Club (8th place, 21 points) in a Liga Profesional de FĂștbol match. The game takes place on May 13, 2026, 6:45 PM. Rosario Central aims to consolidate its position in the upper half of the table, while Racing Club seeks to stay in contention for the top spots.

Form

Rosario Central's form across all competitions is LWWDW. The home team recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five matches, with the last result being a win. Racing Club shows the form LDDDW across all competitions, with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last five games. Their last result was also a win. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Statistics

Rosario Central scores an average of 1.35 goals per game this season, and 1.3 goals at home. The team concedes an average of 1.0 goals per game, and 0.8 goals at home. Rosario Central kept 4 clean sheets. Racing Club scores an average of 1.06 goals per game this season, and 1.1 goals away. They concede an average of 0.88 goals per game, also 0.8 goals away. Racing Club recorded 7 clean sheets.

Head-to-Head

In the 2 previous head-to-head matches, both Rosario Central and Racing Club secured one win each. Rosario Central scored a total of 2 goals, while Racing Club scored 3 goals. The last encounter was won by Rosario Central 2-1 on January 28, 2026.

Key Players

For Rosario Central, Ángel Di María is the top scorer with 5 goals and 3 assists this season, having scored 1 goal and provided 2 assists in the last 5 games. Alejo Veliz contributed 4 goals and 1 assist, with 1 goal in the last 5 matches. Enzo Copetti also scored 4 times this season and 2 times in the last 5 games. For Racing Club, Gabriel Rojas is a key creator with 1 goal and 5 assists this season, including 1 assist in the last 5 games. Matías Zaracho scored 2 seasonal goals, with 2 of them in the last 5 games. Adriån Martínez scored 4 times this season.

Goalkeepers

Rosario Central's goalkeeper, Conan Ledesma, played in 13 season appearances, with his team keeping 2 clean sheets at home. Facundo Cambeses, Racing Club's goalkeeper, featured in 17 season appearances and achieved 5 away clean sheets.

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