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Liga MX

Cruz Azul - Guadalajara

05/14/2026, 02:00 AM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Cruz Azul
1.2
Total xG
2.4
Guadalajara
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

0:1

10%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
CAGUA

Cruz Azul

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match)
+0.03
Gabriel FernĂĄndez not in squad (14 goals, 7 assists)

Guadalajara

Rising form (2.7 vs 2 season average)
+0.21
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.11
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.11
Armando GonzĂĄlez not in squad (24 goals, 2 assists)
Daniel Aguirre DomĂ­nguez not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
Brian Gutiérrez not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
35% of goal output missing (only 76% available)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.42
+0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Guadalajara with José Castillo Pérez: 2.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Cruz Azul with Luka Romero: 6 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Guadalajara: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 4
    Guadalajara: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Cruz Azul: 70% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

31%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Guadalajara is missing a significant portion of goal threat, with key players only accounting for 76% of the usual starting XI's strength in goals and assists
  • Cruz Azul is without an important player, reflected in a lineup-dependent goal threat of 95%
  • Cruz Azul has shown clear dominance in head-to-head matches with 4 wins and 1 draw in 5 encounters
Risk Factors
  • Guadalajara concedes an average of 1.87 goals per away game, indicating a defensive weakness on the road
  • The pipeline predictions show a very balanced outcome with 34% for a home win, 31% for a draw, and 35% for an away win, increasing the unpredictability of the match result
Overview

Cruz Azul (3rd place, 35 points) host Guadalajara (6th place, 29 points) in Liga MX on May 14, 2026, 4:00 AM

This top match will decide important positions in the upper third of the table

Cruz Azul aims to extend their lead over pursuers and stay at the top

Guadalajara is fighting for a better starting position for the playoffs

Form

Cruz Azul is in good form with "DDWWW" (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The team recorded 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5 matches

Currently, Cruz Azul has a streak of 3 consecutive wins

Guadalajara recently showed the form "WDDLW" (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This corresponds to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 games

Guadalajara won their last match

Statistics

Cruz Azul scores an average of 1.8 goals per game and concedes 1.1 goals

In home games, Cruz Azul is defensively more stable with an average of 1.82 goals scored and 0.91 goals conceded

Cruz Azul kept a clean sheet in 11 season matches and 7 home matches

Guadalajara scores an average of 1.76 goals per game and concedes 1.18 goals

Away from home, Guadalajara scores 1.73 goals per game but concedes significantly more goals (1.87)

Guadalajara kept a clean sheet in 14 season matches and 4 away matches

Cruz Azul saw both teams score in 28 games and over 2.5 goals in 21 games

For Guadalajara, both teams scored in 19 games and there were over 2.5 goals in 23 games

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches between the two teams, Cruz Azul dominated

Cruz Azul won 4 of these encounters, while Guadalajara recorded no wins

There was 1 draw between the teams

Cruz Azul scored a total of 8 goals, while Guadalajara managed 4 goals

The last head-to-head match ended on February 22, 2026, with a 2:1 victory for Cruz Azul

Key Players

For Cruz Azul, midfielder José Paradela stands out, contributing 10 goals and 9 assists in 40 season appearances, and scoring 2 goals and 2 assists in the last 5 games

Osinachi Ebere is another important attacker with 3 season goals and 1 assist, including 2 goals in the last 5 matches

Midfielder Carlos RodrĂ­guez scored 7 goals and 5 assists in 40 season appearances, but had no goal contributions in the last 5 games

For Guadalajara, midfielder Efraín Álvarez is a key player with 3 goals and 8 assists in 38 season appearances, contributing 1 assist in the last 5 games

Defender Bryan Alonso GonzĂĄlez OlivĂĄn contributed 6 goals and 5 assists in 38 games, including 2 goals in the last 5 matches

Midfielder Santiago Sandoval scored 5 goals and 1 assist in 31 season appearances, with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

For Cruz Azul, Kevin Mier is in goal, having played in 22 season matches

His team, Cruz Azul, achieved 11 clean sheets in the current season

For Guadalajara, Óscar Alexánder Whalley Guardado is in goal and featured in 4 season matches

Guadalajara recorded 14 clean sheets this season

Influences

Cruz Azul shows a strong home advantage with an average of 1.82 goals scored and only 0.91 goals conceded in home matches

Guadalajara has a vulnerable defense away from home, conceding an average of 1.87 goals per away game

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