Liga MX
Pachuca - Pumas UNAM
05/15/2026, 01:00 AM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.1
0.9
1:1
15%0:0
14%1:0
12%0:1
9%2:0
8%What influences the xG?
Pachuca
Pumas UNAM
League
The Lab
- 1Pumas UNAM: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- 2Pachuca with Sergio Lenin Rodriguez: 5.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Pachuca: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- 4Pumas UNAM: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- 5Pumas UNAM with Tony Leone: 6.8 goals/90 min. Without: 2.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
40%
Draw
33%
Away Win
27%
Goals
Over 1.5
65%
Under 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
36%
Under 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
17%
Under 3.5
83%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
73%
Away or Draw
60%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
44%
No
56%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 40% for Pachuca
- Pumas UNAM shows a positive form development, currently scoring more frequently (2.8) than their season average (1.8)
- Pachuca played counter-attacking football with an average of 37% possession in their last 5 games
Risk Factors
- Pumas UNAM had only 4 days of rest since their last match
- For Pumas UNAM, Juninho and Uriel Antuna are not in the lineup, accounting for 76% of the usual starting XI's goal production
- Pachuca recorded an average of 4.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview
Pachuca (9th place, 22 points) host Pumas UNAM (10th place, 21 points) in a Liga MX clash on May 15, 2026, 2:00 AM.
Both teams are in the mid-table, and a victory could help them close the gap to the top positions.
Form
Pachuca's last 5 games show a form of 'WLLWW', which translates to 3 wins and 2 losses (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss).
Pachuca recently secured 2 consecutive wins.
Pumas UNAM's form in their last 5 matches is 'WWWDD', consisting of 3 wins and 2 draws.
They have drawn their last 2 matches consecutively.
Statistics
Pachuca averages 1.39 goals scored and 1.13 goals conceded per game this season.
At home, they score 1.4 goals and concede 0.95 goals per game.
Pumas UNAM averages 1.76 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded per game.
Away from home, they score 1.78 goals and concede 1.61 goals per game.
Pachuca has kept 9 clean sheets, while Pumas UNAM has 10.
Both teams scored in 20 of Pachuca's games and 25 of Pumas UNAM's games.
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Pachuca won 3 times, Pumas UNAM won 2 times, with no draws.
The goal difference in these encounters is balanced at 8:8.
The last match on April 25, 2026, saw Pumas UNAM win 2-0 away.
Pachuca was noted as recently dominant in the direct duels.
Key Players
Pachuca:
Enner Valencia (Attacker) scored 8 seasonal goals and provided 1 assist, with 3 goals in his last 5 games.
Kenedy (Attacker) has 9 seasonal goals and 2 assists, scoring 2 goals in the last 5 matches.
VĂctor Alfonso GuzmĂĄn GuzmĂĄn (Midfielder) contributed 5 seasonal goals and 7 assists.
Pumas UNAM:
Robert Morales (Attacker) scored 8 seasonal goals and 2 assists, with 3 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games.
JordĂĄn Carrillo (Attacker) has 5 seasonal goals and 3 assists, scoring 3 goals and assisting 2 in his last 5 games.
Pedro Vite (Midfielder) recorded 3 seasonal goals and 1 assist, with 1 assist in his last 5 matches.
Goalkeepers
Pachuca's goalkeeper Carlos AgustĂn Moreno Luna has made 37 season appearances with 0 goals scored.
Pumas UNAM's goalkeeper Keylor Navas has 34 season appearances.
Pachuca has 9 clean sheets, and Pumas UNAM has achieved 10 clean sheets.
Influences
Pachuca shows a stable home performance, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.95 goals conceded per game.
Pumas UNAM averages 1.78 goals scored and 1.61 goals conceded per away match.
No specific data on venue history or weather conditions is available.