Liga MX
Guadalajara - Cruz Azul
05/17/2026, 01:07 AM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.4
1.2
1:1
15%0:0
10%1:0
9%0:1
9%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Guadalajara
Cruz Azul
League
The Lab
- 1Guadalajara with José Castillo Pérez: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Guadalajara: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)
- 3Cruz Azul: 74% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 4Cruz Azul with Amaury GarcĂa: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 5Guadalajara: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
37%
Draw
31%
Away Win
32%
Goals
Over 1.5
72%
Under 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
44%
Under 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
23%
Under 3.5
77%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
68%
Away or Draw
63%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- Cruz Azul's current form (3 wins, 2 draws) is significantly better compared to Guadalajara's (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss)
- Cruz Azul dominated recent head-to-head matches with 3 wins and 2 draws out of 5 encounters
- The mathematical analysis predicts a tight match with a home win probability of 37% for Guadalajara
Risk Factors
- Both teams have a short recovery period of 3 days since their last match
- Guadalajara's goal production is currently stagnating (1.7 goals), while the season average is 2.0 goals
Overview
Guadalajara (6th place, 29 points) host Cruz Azul (3rd place, 35 points) in a Liga MX match on May 17, 2026, 3:07 AM. Guadalajara is aiming for a better position in the top half of the table, while Cruz Azul seeks to solidify their spot in the top 3.
Form
Guadalajara's current form across all competitions is DDLWD, which translates to 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 games. Their last match ended in a draw. Cruz Azul's form is DWWWD, with 3 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses from their last 5 fixtures. Their last game also resulted in a draw.
Statistics
Guadalajara averages 1.77 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded per season. At home, they average 1.78 goals scored and only 0.74 goals conceded. The team kept 14 clean sheets. Both teams scored in 20 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 24 games. Cruz Azul averages 1.80 goals scored and 1.12 goals conceded per game. Away, they score an average of 1.78 goals and concede 1.33 goals. They kept 11 clean sheets. Both teams scored in 29 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 22 games.
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara has no wins, while Cruz Azul secured 3 victories, and 2 games ended in a draw. The goal difference is 6:9 in favor of Cruz Azul. The last encounter on May 14, 2026, ended in a 2-2 draw. Cruz Azul has been the more dominant team in recent direct clashes.
Key Players
For Guadalajara, Santiago Sandoval is in rising form, with 3 goals in his last 5 games. EfraĂn Ălvarez has scored 3 goals and provided 8 assists this season. Bryan Alonso GonzĂĄlez OlivĂĄn is an important defender with 6 season goals and 5 assists. For Cruz Azul, JosĂ© Paradela stands out with 10 goals and 10 assists, showing stable form with 2 goals and 3 assists in the last 5 matches. Osinachi Ebere is also in good form, with 3 goals in his last 5 games and 4 season goals. Carlos Rotondi has scored 5 season goals and provided 7 assists, showing rising form. Not nominated for Guadalajara: Ricardo MarĂn (3G/2A).
Goalkeepers
For Guadalajara, Ăscar AlexĂĄnder Whalley Guardado is the goalkeeper, having played in 5 matches. Guadalajara recorded 14 clean sheets. For Cruz Azul, Kevin Mier is in goal, with 23 appearances this season. Cruz Azul achieved 11 clean sheets.
Influences
Guadalajara demonstrates defensive stability at home, with an average of 1.78 goals scored and only 0.74 goals conceded. Cruz Azul scores an average of 1.78 goals and concedes 1.33 goals away from home.