Liga MX
Pumas UNAM - Pachuca
05/18/2026, 01:00 AM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.7
1.2
1:1
14%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:0
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Pumas UNAM
Pachuca
League
The Lab
- 1Pumas UNAM: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2Pachuca: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)
- 3Pachuca with Sergio Lenin Rodriguez: 5.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4Pachuca: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5Pumas UNAM with Guillermo Martínez Ayala: 6 goals/90 min. Without: 1.9 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
41%
Draw
29%
Away Win
30%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
70%
Away or Draw
59%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Pumas UNAM with a 41% probability and more expected goals (1.48 vs 1.24).
- Pumas UNAM shows a positive trend in goal scoring with an average of 2.4 goals per game recently compared to 1.8 season average, while Pachuca's goal production is stagnating (1.0 recently vs 1.5 season average).
- Pachuca dominated the last 5 head-to-head encounters with 4 wins, including the most recent 1-0 victory.
Risk Factors
- Both teams had only 3 days of rest since their last match, which could lead to fatigue.
- Pumas UNAM are missing key players J. Macías Guzmán and A. Medina Camacho, impacting 17% of their seasonal goal production.
- Pachuca's goal production is stagnating (average of 1.0 goals recently), falling below their season average (1.5 goals), indicating a negative form trend.
Overview
Pumas UNAM (10th place, 21 points) host Pachuca (9th place, 22 points) in a Liga MX match on May 18, 2026, 3:00 AM. Both teams are in the middle of the table, with a slight edge for the visitors.
Form
Pumas UNAM's form across all competitions is WWDDL (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss), with their last game being a loss. Pachuca, however, shows a form of LLWWW (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses) and is currently on a 3-game winning streak. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Pumas UNAM averages 1.71 goals scored per game and concedes 1.37 goals this season. At home, they average 1.74 goals scored and 1.16 goals conceded. The team kept 10 clean sheets and both teams scored in 25 matches. Pachuca averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.10 goals conceded this season. Away from home, they average 1.39 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded. Pachuca also recorded 10 clean sheets, with both teams scoring in 20 matches.
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pachuca secured 4 wins, while Pumas UNAM registered 1 win. Pachuca also leads in goal difference with 9 goals to Pumas UNAM's 6. The most recent encounter took place on May 15, 2026, where Pachuca claimed a 1-0 home victory and emerged as the recently dominant winner.
Key Players
For Pumas UNAM, Robert Morales is in stable form with 8 season goals and 2 assists, adding 3 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games. Jordán Carrillo contributed 5 season goals and 3 assists, with 2 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 games, also in stable form. Uriel Antuna scored 3 season goals and 4 assists, with 2 goals in his last 5 games, maintaining stable form. For Pachuca, Enner Valencia is in stable form with 8 season goals and 1 assist, scoring 3 goals in his last 5 games. Kenedy scored 9 goals and provided 2 assists this season, with 1 goal in the last 5 games, showing stable form. Víctor Alfonso Guzmán Guzmán contributed 5 season goals and 7 assists, adding 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games, also in stable form.
Goalkeepers
Keylor Navas is in goal for Pumas UNAM, having made 34 appearances this season and kept 10 clean sheets. For Pachuca, Carlos Agustín Moreno Luna is the goalkeeper, also recording 10 clean sheets in 37 season appearances.
Influences
Pumas UNAM shows solid performance at home, averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.16 goals conceded per game. Pachuca scores an average of 1.39 goals and concedes 1.33 goals per away match.