Friendly International

Morocco - Madagascar

06/02/2026, 05:00 PM

4 : 0
Expected Goals
Morocco
2.3
Total xG
3.3
Madagascar
0.9
Most Likely Scores

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

1:1

9%

3:0

8%

3:1

8%
What influences the xG?
MORMAD

Morocco

Attack strength (1.58x league average)
+1.03
Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.95
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
-0.63
Rising form (3 vs 2.3 season average)
+0.22
Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 108, 97 places gap)
+0.16
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.10
Achraf Hakimi not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists)
Neil El Aynaoui not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
58% of goal output missing (only 23% available)

Madagascar

Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean
+0.65
Standings disadvantage (pos 108 vs 11, 97 places gap)
-0.16
50% of goal output missing (only 50% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.35
+0.35
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Morocco: first goal in 5 of 6 games (83%)

  • 2
    Morocco: scored only after the break in 4 of 7 games

  • 3
    Morocco: 60% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 10)

  • 4
    Morocco: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 7 games. Against Tunisia: 2 goals (80', 90+4')

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

68%

Draw

20%

Away Win

12%

Goals

Over 1.5

85%

Under 1.5

15%

Over 2.5

63%

Under 2.5

37%

Over 3.5

41%

Under 3.5

59%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

88%

Away or Draw

32%

No Draw

80%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Significant squad impact for Morocco: Only 24% of the usual starting XI strength is available, without Achraf Hakimi and Neil El Aynaoui
  • Squad impact for Madagascar: Only 50% of the usual starting XI strength is available
  • Morocco has shown a possession-dominant style in the last 5 games with an average of 7.0 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • Limited data available for Madagascar's season statistics and tactical metrics
  • Lack of historical head-to-head data, making it difficult to assess past encounters
Overview

Morocco host Madagascar in a Friendly International match at Stade Prince Moulay Abdallah on June 2, 2026, 6:00 PM

The game will be played on a grass surface

The mathematical analysis clearly favors Morocco with a 68% probability of a home win

Form

Morocco shows strong form across all competitions with WWDWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They have recorded 4 wins and 1 draw in their last five matches

Madagascar's form is W, representing 1 win from their last five matches

Morocco won their last home game 5-0 against Burundi

Madagascar won their only recorded away game 5-2 against Kyrgyz Republic

Statistics

Morocco averages 2.67 home goals per game this season and concedes 0.67 goals

They have kept 1 clean sheet in home matches

Madagascar averages 3.0 away goals per game and concedes 1.5 goals

They have kept 0 clean sheets in their away matches

The mathematical prediction expects 2.33 goals for Morocco and 0.92 goals for Madagascar

The probability of both teams scoring is 56%

Head-to-Head

There are no historical head-to-head matches between Morocco and Madagascar in the provided dataset

Key Players

For Morocco, Ismael Saibari shows rising form with 3 goals and 1 assist in 261 minutes from the last 5 games

Abde Ezzalzouli is also in rising form with 3 goals and 1 assist in 425 minutes over the last 5 games

Bilal El Khannouss has contributed 2 assists in the last 5 games

For Madagascar, Thomas Fontaine scored 1 goal in 1 game this season

Clément Couturier also recorded 1 season goal

Rayan Raveloson also contributed 1 season goal

Goalkeepers

Morocco's goalkeeper Munir El Kajoui played in 1 recorded game

Morocco has kept 1 clean sheet this season

Madagascar's goalkeeper Geordan Dupire played in 1 recorded game

Madagascar has kept 0 clean sheets this season

Influences

Morocco has a strong offense in home games, averaging 2.67 goals per game

The defense is also solid, conceding an average of 0.67 goals at home

Madagascar shows offensive strength away with an average of 3.0 goals per game, but also defensive vulnerability, conceding an average of 1.5 goals

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.