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Morocco – Madagascar4 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Morocco
2.33
Total xG
3.25
Madagascar
0.92
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Morocco | Madagascar |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.58x league average) | +1.03 | |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.95 | |
| Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean | +0.65 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | −0.63 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.35 | +0.35 |
| Rising form (3 vs 2.3 season average) | +0.22 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 11 vs 108, 97 places gap) | +0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 108 vs 11, 97 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Achraf Hakimi not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Neil El Aynaoui not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 58% of goal output missing (only 23% available) | ||
| 50% of goal output missing (only 50% available) |
Key factors
- Significant squad impact for Morocco: Only 24% of the usual starting XI strength is available, without Achraf Hakimi and Neil El Aynaoui
- Squad impact for Madagascar: Only 50% of the usual starting XI strength is available
- Morocco has shown a possession-dominant style in the last 5 games with an average of 7.0 shots on target
Risks
- Limited data available for Madagascar's season statistics and tactical metrics
- Lack of historical head-to-head data, making it difficult to assess past encounters
All probabilities
Result
Morocco68%
Draw20%
Madagascar12%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.541%
Under 3.559%
Double chance
Morocco or draw88%
Madagascar or draw32%
No draw80%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
1:1
9%
3:0
8%
3:1
8%
4:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Morocco: first goal in 5 of 6 games (83%)
- Morocco: scored only after the break in 4 of 7 games
- Morocco: 60% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (6 of 10)
- Morocco: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 7 games. Against Tunisia: 2 goals (80', 90+4')
Lineups
Morocco 4-2-3-1 · Madagascar 3-5-2
Morocco
- 12 M. Mohand Mohamedi
- 3 N. Mazraoui
- 14 I. Diop
- 25 R. Halhal
- 26 A. Salah-Eddine
- 6 A. Bouaddi
- 4 S. Amrabat
- 21 A. Amaimouni-Echghouyab
- 23 B. El Khannous
- 17 A. Ezzalzouli
- 11 I. Saibari Ben El Basra
Madagascar
- 1 G. Dupire
- 15 E. Kari
- 21 T. Fontaine
- 5 S. Tremoulet
- 12 M. Acapandié
- 14 C. Couturier
- 10 J. N'Zi
- 7 R. Raveloson
- 22 R. Ponti
- 13 B. Adinany
- 19 H. Abdallah
Substitutes
- 28 M. Sbai
- 8 A. Ounahi
- 10 B. Abdelkader Diaz
- 15 S. El Mourabet
- 18 C. Riad
- 20 A. El Kaabi
- 29 A. Maamar
- 16 G. Yassine
- 27 M. Saadane
- 31 M. Harrar
- 9 S. Rahimi
- 19 Y. Belammari
- 22 A. Tagnaouti
- 11 E. Raheriniaina
- 20 A. Randrianantenaina
- 17 L. Lapoussin
- 24 L. Demeleon
- 4 A. Rakotondrajoa
- 3 J. Morgan
- 2 R. Rabemananjara
- 8 B. Tsirava
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