Friendly International

Iran - Gambia

05/29/2026, 03:30 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Iran
1.3
Total xG
3.0
Gambia
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

9%

0:2

7%

2:1

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
IRAGAM

Iran

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.96
Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.7 league avg)
-0.27
Standings disadvantage (pos 115 vs 21, 94 places gap)
-0.22
Full strength squad available

Gambia

Attack strength (2.31x league average)
+1.83
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-1.37
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.28
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 21 vs 115, 94 places gap)
+0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.03
A. Gholizadeh not in squad (1 goals, 0 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 66% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match)
+0.33
+0.33
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

26%

Draw

26%

Away Win

47%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

53%

Away or Draw

74%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • Favorites: The mathematical analysis predicts a 47% win probability for Iran
  • Offensive strength: Iran shows a significantly higher scoring rate with an average of 3.0 goals per game compared to Gambia (1.0 goals)
  • Squad Impact Gambia: For Gambia, only 50% of the usual starting XI goal threat is available
Risk Factors
  • Squad Impact Iran: A. Gholizadeh is missing, only 67% of seasonal goal threat is available
  • Tactical Efficiency Iran: Iran averaged only 2.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, despite a high scoring rate
Overview

Gambia hosts Iran in a Friendly International match at Antalya Stadyumu

Kick-off is on May 29, 2026, 5:30 PM

The mathematical analysis identifies Iran as the favorite with a 47% win probability

Form

Gambia's form in the last three games is WDL (1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss)

Their last match was a 1-3 loss against Senegal

Iran shows LWDLW form in their last five games (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)

They recently secured a 5-0 win against Costa Rica

Statistics

Gambia averaged 1.0 goal scored per game this season and conceded 3.0 goals

Iran scored an average of 3.0 goals per game and conceded 1.0 goal

Antalya Stadyumu has seen an average of 5.0 goals in its single recorded match

0 out of 1 games there ended with both teams scoring, and 1 out of 1 games had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

There are no previous head-to-head encounters between these teams in the provided data

Key Players

For Gambia: Omar Colley (Defender) scored 1 goal this season and had a 6.24 rating in the last game

Baboucarr Gaye (Goalkeeper) shows a rising form trend with a +0.88 delta

Adama Bojang (Attacker) achieved a 6.43 rating in the last game

For Iran: Mehdi Taremi (Attacker) has 3 season goals and 1 assist, with 3 goals and 2 assists in his last 4 games

Mohammad Mohebi (Attacker) scored 1 season goal and 2 goals in his last 3 games

Saman Ghoddos (Midfielder) appeared in 4 of the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Gambia is expected to field Baboucarr Gaye, who has 0 clean sheets this season

Baboucarr Gaye's form is rising, with an average rating of 6.56 in his last 5 games

Iran is expected to start Seyed Hossein Hosseini, who recorded 1 clean sheet this season

Influences

Antalya Stadyumu has seen an average of 5.0 goals in its only recorded match

The venue had over 2.5 goals in 1 of 1 games

Iran won its only match at this stadium 5-0 against Costa Rica

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