Match report →
Iran – Gambia3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Iran
1.27
Total xG
3.02
Gambia
1.75
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Iran | Gambia |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (2.31x league average) | +1.83 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | −1.37 | |
| Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean | +0.96 | |
| High-scoring league (2.8 goals/match) | +0.33 | +0.33 |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.28 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.27 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 115 vs 21, 94 places gap) | −0.22 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 21 vs 115, 94 places gap) | +0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| A. Gholizadeh not in squad (1 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 66% available) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Favorites: The mathematical analysis predicts a 47% win probability for Iran
- Offensive strength: Iran shows a significantly higher scoring rate with an average of 3.0 goals per game compared to Gambia (1.0 goals)
- Squad Impact Gambia: For Gambia, only 50% of the usual starting XI goal threat is available
Risks
- Squad Impact Iran: A. Gholizadeh is missing, only 67% of seasonal goal threat is available
- Tactical Efficiency Iran: Iran averaged only 2.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, despite a high scoring rate
All probabilities
Result
Iran26%
Draw26%
Gambia47%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Double chance
Iran or draw53%
Gambia or draw74%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
9%
0:2
7%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
3:1
Final score
Lineups
Iran 4-2-3-1 · Gambia 3-4-3
Iran
- 1 A. Safar Beiranvand
- 17 A. Yousefi
- 13 M. Kanani Zadegan
- 19 A. Nemati
- 3 E. Hajsafi
- 28 A. Razzaghinia
- 6 S. Ezatolahi Afagh
- 8 M. Mohebi
- 9 M. Taremi
- 18 M. Hosseinnezhad Mahaleh kolaei
- 29 K. Taheri
Gambia
- 18 B. Gaye
- 5 O. Colley
- 3 S. Sanyang
- 6 T. Sonha Sohna
- 2 M. Bajo
- 8 E. Adams
- 23 M. Drammeh
- 12 A. Bojang
- 24 S. Drammeh
- 9 A. Sidibeh
- 11 E. Colley
Substitutes
- 16 M. Torabi
- 23 R. Rezaeian
- 4 S. Khalilzadeh
- 12 P. Niazmand
- 5 S. Hardani
- 21 O. Noorafkan
- 11 A. Alipour
- 10 H. Habibinejad
- 30 M. Khalifeh
- 34 A. Mahmoudi
- 17 K. Gassama
- 15 E. Mendy
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