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Korea Republic – Trinidad and Tobago5 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Korea Republic
1.37
Total xG
2.21
Trinidad and Tobago
0.84
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Korea Republic | Trinidad and Tobago |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2.5 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +1.36 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.64 | |
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | −0.47 | |
| Small sample (1 matches) - regression to mean | −0.37 | |
| Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean | +0.31 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 102 vs 23, 79 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 23 vs 102, 79 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Attack weakness (0.59x league average) | +0.01 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Mathematical favoritism: The analysis gives Korea Republic a home win probability of 48%
- Current form: Korea Republic (WWWLL) shows more stable form than Trinidad and Tobago (DLLLD)
- Tactical advantage: Korea Republic averages more possession (54%) and more shots on target (3.2) than Trinidad and Tobago
Risks
- Home attacking weakness: Korea Republic scored an average of 0.0 goals per home game this season
- Away defensive weakness: Trinidad and Tobago conceded an average of 3.0 goals per away game
- Limited attacking power for guests: Trinidad and Tobago averaged only 1.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Korea Republic48%
Draw31%
Trinidad and Tobago21%
Goals
Over 1.566%
Under 1.534%
Over 2.538%
Under 2.562%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Double chance
Korea Republic or draw79%
Trinidad and Tobago or draw52%
No draw69%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
13%
0:0
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
5:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Trinidad and Tobago: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 6 games)
- Korea Republic with Jens Castrop: 3.8 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- Korea Republic: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Korea Republic 3-4-2-1 · Trinidad and Tobago 4-2-3-1
Korea Republic
- 21 H. Cho
- 5 H. Lee
- 10 Y. Cho
- 9 G. Lee
- 15 M. Kim
- 6 J. Kim
- 22 S. Paik
- 17 J. Castrop
- 25 J. Bae
- 20 D. Lee
- 13 H. Son
Trinidad and Tobago
- 1 J. Brice
- 2 D. Payne
- 3 K. Henry
- 4 K. Ngwenya
- 23 N. Powder
- 8 D. Phillips
- 17 M. Poon-Angeron
- 15 D. Sealy
- 18 M. Khan
- 11 J. Garcia
- 19 R. Mitchell
Substitutes
- 16 M. Kim
- 14 J. Lee
- 26 H. Hwang
- 23 J. Eom
- 8 Seol Young-Woo
- 19 I. Hwang
- 11 H. Yang
- 3 K. Cho
- 7 T. Lee
- 4 J. Park
- 12 S. Kim
- 2 T. Kim
- 24 S. Kang
- 1 B. Song
- 18 W. Cho
- 14 J. Rochford
- 10 I. Lee
- 6 A. Herbert
- 9 D. David
- 16 J. Greene
- 20 K. Thomas
- 12 A. Nakhid
- 21 Teshorne Ragoo
- 5 Jaylen Yearwood
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