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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

Argentinos Juniors - Belgrano

05/17/2026, 08:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Argentinos Juniors
1.4
Total xG
2.2
Belgrano
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

14%

0:0

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
AJBEL

Argentinos Juniors

Attack strength (1.3x league average)
+0.38
Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.31
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.04
Full strength squad available

Belgrano

4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.13
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.02
Ramiro Hernandes on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Belgrano with Lisandro LĂłpez: 1.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Belgrano: 74% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Belgrano: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    Argentinos Juniors with Hernån López Muñoz: 2.8 goals/90 min. Without: 1.4 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

31%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

38%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

51%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Home team Argentinos Juniors shows a very strong home defense with an average of 0.33 goals conceded per home game
  • Argentinos Juniors is in good form with 4 wins in their last 5 league matches
  • The mathematical model predicts a home win with 49% probability and a double chance (home win or draw) with 80% probability
Risk Factors
  • Belgrano shows strong current form with 3 consecutive wins in recent matches
  • The model predicts a low-scoring game, with only a 39% probability for over 2.5 goals
  • Argentinos Juniors has several players sidelined due to cruciate ligament tears, including M. GimĂ©nez Rojas, J. Gho, and E. RodrĂ­guez
Overview

Argentinos Juniors (3rd place, 29 points) host Belgrano (5th place, 26 points) in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

The match takes place on May 17, 2026, 10:00 PM

Both teams are in the upper third of the table and are fighting for a better position

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Argentinos Juniors shows good form with WWLWW in the last 5 matches

This corresponds to 4 wins and 1 loss

The home team has won its last two matches consecutively

Belgrano's form in the last 5 games is DLWWW

These are 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Belgrano is currently on a streak of 3 consecutive wins

Statistics

Argentinos Juniors averages 1.11 goals scored and 0.72 goals conceded per game this season

At home, they average 1.08 goals scored and only 0.33 goals conceded per home game

Argentinos Juniors kept 10 clean sheets this season, 8 of them at home

Belgrano also has a season average of 1.11 goals and 0.72 goals conceded per game

Away from home, Belgrano averages 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded per away game

Belgrano achieved 10 clean sheets this season, 5 of them away

Argentinos Juniors' tactical analysis in the last 5 games shows a possession-dominant approach with an average of 61% possession and Ø 4.6 shots on target

Belgrano played a balanced game in their last 5 matches with an average of 53% possession and Ø 4.0 shots on target

Argentinos Juniors scores consistently (~1.3 goals per game)

Belgrano is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.3)

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, there has been 1 win for Argentinos Juniors, 1 win for Belgrano, and 2 draws

Both teams scored 2 goals each in these encounters

The last meeting on February 3, 2026, ended in a 0-0 draw

The head-to-head record is even

Key Players

For Argentinos Juniors, TomĂĄs Molina is an important offensive player with 4 season goals, 3 of which came in the last 5 games

Alan Lescano has scored 3 season goals and shows stable form

Francisco Álvarez, as a defender, contributed 2 season goals and 1 goal in the last 5 games

For Belgrano, Lucas Zelarayån  is a key player with 4 season goals

Francisco GonzĂĄlez Metilli has scored 3 season goals, 2 of them in the last 5 games

Lucas Passerini  is an important assist provider with 5 season assists and 2 assists in the last 3 games

Goalkeepers

Brayan Josué Cortés Fernåndez, the goalkeeper for Argentinos Juniors, played in 18 season matches and recorded 10 clean sheets

He kept a clean sheet 8 times in home games

Thiago Cardozo, Belgrano's goalkeeper, also played 18 season matches and achieved 10 clean sheets

5 of these games were away matches without conceding a goal

Influences

Argentinos Juniors shows a clear home advantage, scoring an average of 1.08 goals at home and conceding only 0.33 goals

This indicates a very strong home defense

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