Liga Profesional de FĂștbol
River Plate - Rosario Central
05/16/2026, 10:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.6
1.1
1:1
14%2:1
9%2:0
8%1:2
7%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
River Plate
Rosario Central
League
The Lab
- 1Rosario Central with Emanuel Coronel: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2River Plate with Juan Fernando Quintero: 5.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Rosario Central: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 4River Plate: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 5River Plate: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 8 games. Against Aldosivi: 2 goals (83', 90+6')
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
44%
Draw
29%
Away Win
27%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
73%
Away or Draw
56%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Rosario Central shows positive form development with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games.
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for River Plate with a 44% probability.
- River Plate is offensively strong at home, scoring an average of 1.5 goals per home game.
Risk Factors
- River Plate had only 2 days of rest since their last match.
- Rosario Central had only 3 days of rest since their last match.
Overview
River Plate (2nd place, 29 points) host Rosario Central (4th place, 28 points) in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol. The match takes place on May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM. Both teams are positioned in the upper half of the table, vying for top spots.
Form
River Plate's form is LWLDW, which translates to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches. Their last result was a win. Rosario Central is currently in better shape with a form of WWDWW, achieving 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games. They have won their last two matches. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
River Plate has scored an average of 1.44 goals per game and conceded 0.78 goals this season. At home, they are stable with an average of 1.5 goals scored and 0.83 goals conceded. Rosario Central averages 1.39 goals scored and 1.0 goal conceded per game. Away from home, they score 1.43 goals and concede 1.29 goals on average. River Plate kept 8 clean sheets, while Rosario Central recorded 4. Both teams scored in 6 of River Plate's games and in 12 of Rosario Central's games.
Head-to-Head
In the 4 head-to-head matches between the two teams, the record is even. River Plate won 1 game, Rosario Central also won 1 game, and 2 matches ended in a draw. River Plate scored 7 goals and conceded 4. The last encounter on February 2, 2026, ended in a 0-0 draw.
Key Players
For River Plate, Facundo Colidio (3 goals, 2 assists, avg. 6.75) stands out with a rising form (1 goal, 1 assist in last 5 games) and SebastiĂĄn Driussi (5 goals, avg. 7.1) with 2 goals in the last 5 matches. Lucas MartĂnez Quarta (2 goals, avg. 7.01) also shows rising form with 1 goal in the last 5 games. For Rosario Central, Ăngel Di MarĂa (5 goals, 4 assists, avg. 7.51) is crucial with 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 4 games. Enzo Copetti (5 goals, avg. 6.76) scored 2 goals in the last 5 matches. GastĂłn Ăvila (2 goals, 1 assist, avg. 7.03) contributed with 1 goal in the last 5 games.
Goalkeepers
Santiago BeltrĂĄn is the goalkeeper for River Plate, recording 8 clean sheets this season with an average rating of 6.93. For Rosario Central, Conan Ledesma is in goal, achieving 4 clean sheets and an average rating of 6.86.
Influences
River Plate performs well at home, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 0.83 goals conceded per home game. Rosario Central scores 1.43 goals and concedes 1.29 goals per away game. The data available for venue history and weather conditions is limited.