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Liga Profesional de FĂștbol

River Plate - Rosario Central

05/16/2026, 10:30 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
River Plate
1.5
Total xG
2.6
Rosario Central
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
RPRC

River Plate

Attack strength (1.43x league average)
+0.41
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.04
Marcos Acuña on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.5 goals/match)

Rosario Central

Attack strength (1.3x league average)
+0.29
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.13
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.13
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
-0.07
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Rosario Central with Emanuel Coronel: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    River Plate with Juan Fernando Quintero: 5.1 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Rosario Central: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    River Plate: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    River Plate: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 8 games. Against Aldosivi: 2 goals (83', 90+6')

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

29%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Rosario Central shows positive form development with 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games.
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for River Plate with a 44% probability.
  • River Plate is offensively strong at home, scoring an average of 1.5 goals per home game.
Risk Factors
  • River Plate had only 2 days of rest since their last match.
  • Rosario Central had only 3 days of rest since their last match.
Overview

River Plate (2nd place, 29 points) host Rosario Central (4th place, 28 points) in the Liga Profesional de FĂștbol. The match takes place on May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM. Both teams are positioned in the upper half of the table, vying for top spots.

Form

River Plate's form is LWLDW, which translates to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches. Their last result was a win. Rosario Central is currently in better shape with a form of WWDWW, achieving 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 games. They have won their last two matches. (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

River Plate has scored an average of 1.44 goals per game and conceded 0.78 goals this season. At home, they are stable with an average of 1.5 goals scored and 0.83 goals conceded. Rosario Central averages 1.39 goals scored and 1.0 goal conceded per game. Away from home, they score 1.43 goals and concede 1.29 goals on average. River Plate kept 8 clean sheets, while Rosario Central recorded 4. Both teams scored in 6 of River Plate's games and in 12 of Rosario Central's games.

Head-to-Head

In the 4 head-to-head matches between the two teams, the record is even. River Plate won 1 game, Rosario Central also won 1 game, and 2 matches ended in a draw. River Plate scored 7 goals and conceded 4. The last encounter on February 2, 2026, ended in a 0-0 draw.

Key Players

For River Plate, Facundo Colidio (3 goals, 2 assists, avg. 6.75) stands out with a rising form (1 goal, 1 assist in last 5 games) and Sebastiån Driussi (5 goals, avg. 7.1) with 2 goals in the last 5 matches. Lucas Martínez Quarta (2 goals, avg. 7.01) also shows rising form with 1 goal in the last 5 games. For Rosario Central, Ángel Di María (5 goals, 4 assists, avg. 7.51) is crucial with 1 goal and 2 assists in the last 4 games. Enzo Copetti (5 goals, avg. 6.76) scored 2 goals in the last 5 matches. Gastón Ávila (2 goals, 1 assist, avg. 7.03) contributed with 1 goal in the last 5 games.

Goalkeepers

Santiago BeltrĂĄn is the goalkeeper for River Plate, recording 8 clean sheets this season with an average rating of 6.93. For Rosario Central, Conan Ledesma is in goal, achieving 4 clean sheets and an average rating of 6.86.

Influences

River Plate performs well at home, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 0.83 goals conceded per home game. Rosario Central scores 1.43 goals and concedes 1.29 goals per away game. The data available for venue history and weather conditions is limited.

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