Eredivisie
Ajax - FC Utrecht
05/24/2026, 10:15 AM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.9
1.6
1:1
13%1:2
9%2:1
8%0:2
6%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Ajax
FC Utrecht
League
The Lab
- 1FC Utrecht: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- 2FC Utrecht: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)
- 3Ajax with Oscar Gloukh: 3.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 4FC Utrecht: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- 5FC Utrecht with Adrian Blake: 8.5 goals/90 min. Without: 2.2 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
32%
Draw
27%
Away Win
40%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
34%
Under 3.5
66%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
60%
Away or Draw
68%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
61%
No
39%
Key Factors
- FC Utrecht is in strong recent form with 4 wins in their last 5 games, contrasting with Ajax's mixed results
- FC Utrecht has dominated recent head-to-head matches, winning 3 of the last 5 encounters, including the last game at Kras Stadion
- The mathematical analysis suggests a slight away win, with a 40% probability for FC Utrecht
Risk Factors
- Both teams have had only 3 days rest since their last match, indicating potential fatigue
- FC Utrecht concedes an average of 2.07 goals per away game, highlighting a defensive weakness
- The absence of V. Jensen for FC Utrecht means a loss of 5 season goals, accounting for 13.7% of their goal production
Overview
Ajax (5th place, 56 points) host FC Utrecht (6th place, 53 points) at Kras Stadion
Eredivisie match on May 24, 2026, 12:15 PM
Both teams are battling for a higher league position
Form
Ajax's form across all competitions is WDLDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Ajax has 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 games
FC Utrecht's form is LWWWW
They have 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 games
Statistics
Ajax scores an average of 1.83 goals per game and concedes 1.17 goals this season
At home, the average is 1.79 goals scored and 0.89 goals conceded
FC Utrecht scores an average of 1.66 goals per game and concedes 1.26 goals
Away, this figure is 1.71 goals scored and 2.07 goals conceded
Both teams scored in 23 Ajax matches and 21 Utrecht matches
20 Ajax games and 18 Utrecht games ended with over 2.5 goals
The last 5 games at Kras Stadion have seen an average of 2.0 goals per game
Both teams scored in 2 of 5 games, and 2 of 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ajax has 1 win, 1 draw, and FC Utrecht has 3 wins
The goal difference is 6:10 in favor of FC Utrecht
The last encounter on May 10, 2026, ended with a 1-2 away win for FC Utrecht
FC Utrecht has been the more dominant team in recent direct clashes
Key Players
Mika Godts is a key offensive player for Ajax with 17 goals and 13 assists in 33 season appearances
Davy Klaassen contributed 7 goals and 2 assists in 30 season appearances
Steven Berghuis scored 4 goals and 2 assists in 20 season appearances
For FC Utrecht, Gjivai ZechiĆ¢l is crucial with 8 goals and 7 assists in 35 season appearances
Souffian El Karouani has provided 3 goals and 12 assists in 33 season appearances
Dani de Wit scored 7 goals and 3 assists in 28 season appearances
Goalkeepers
Maarten Paes is the goalkeeper for Ajax and has no goals or assists in 12 appearances
Ajax has kept 11 clean sheets this season
Vasilios Barkas is the goalkeeper for FC Utrecht, with no goals or assists in 34 appearances
FC Utrecht has achieved 9 clean sheets this season
Influences
The match will be played on artificial turf
Ajax has a record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 0 losses (14:8 goals) on artificial turf
FC Utrecht has a record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses (8:11 goals) on artificial turf