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Ajax – FC Utrecht1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Ajax
1.38
Total xG
2.94
FC Utrecht
1.56
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Ajax | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.68 | +0.68 |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.03 | |
| Wout Weghorst on the bench (8 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| V. Jensen not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 86% available) |
Key factors
- FC Utrecht is in strong recent form with 4 wins in their last 5 games, contrasting with Ajax's mixed results
- FC Utrecht has dominated recent head-to-head matches, winning 3 of the last 5 encounters, including the last game at Kras Stadion
- The mathematical analysis suggests a slight away win, with a 40% probability for FC Utrecht
Risks
- Both teams have had only 3 days rest since their last match, indicating potential fatigue
- FC Utrecht concedes an average of 2.07 goals per away game, highlighting a defensive weakness
- The absence of V. Jensen for FC Utrecht means a loss of 5 season goals, accounting for 13.7% of their goal production
All probabilities
Result
Ajax32%
Draw27%
FC Utrecht40%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Double chance
Ajax or draw60%
FC Utrecht or draw68%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Utrecht: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- FC Utrecht: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)
- Ajax with Oscar Gloukh: 3.3 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- FC Utrecht: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- FC Utrecht with Adrian Blake: 8.5 goals/90 min. Without: 2.2 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)
Lineups
Ajax 4-3-3 · FC Utrecht 4-2-3-1
Ajax
- 26 M. Paes
- 3 A. Gaaei
- 30 A. Bouwman
- 15 Y. Baas
- 2 L. Rosa
- 6 Y. Regeer
- 24 J. Mokio
- 18 D. Klaassen
- 23 S. Berghuis
- 9 K. Dolberg
- 11 M. Godts
FC Utrecht
- 1 V. Barkas
- 23 N. Vesterlund
- 3 M. van der Hoorn
- 44 M. Eerdhuijzen
- 16 S. Elkarouani
- 2 S. Horemans
- 21 G. Zechiël
- 10 Y. Cathline
- 20 D. de Wit
- 11 J. Karlsson
- 18 A. Stepanov
Substitutes
- 4 K. Itakura
- 52 P. Peters Reverson
- 32 T. Tomiyasu
- 48 S. Steur
- 10 O. Gloukh
- 43 R. Bounida
- 25 W. Weghorst
- 19 D. Christoffel Annum-Assamoah Konadu
- 7 M. Carrizo
- 45 R. van de Pavert
- 50 M. Muzungu
- 58 V. van der Velde
- 25 M. Brouwer
- 33 K. Gadellaa
- 9 D. Min
- 24 N. Viergever
- 91 S. Haller
- 15 A. Blake
- 43 R. el Arguioui
- 77 Ángel Galiot
- 5 E. Adeile
- 53 N. Viereck
- 57 P. Kloosterboer
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