Eredivisie
Ajax - FC Groningen
05/21/2026, 04:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
3.0
1.5
1:1
13%1:2
9%2:1
8%2:2
6%0:2
6%What influences the xG?
Ajax
FC Groningen
League
The Lab
- 1FC Groningen: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- 2Ajax with Rayane Bounida: 7.6 goals/90 min. Without: 1.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3FC Groningen with Brynjólfur Willumsson: 6.3 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 4FC Groningen: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5FC Groningen: 66% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
34%
Draw
27%
Away Win
38%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
57%
Under 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
34%
Under 3.5
66%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
62%
Away or Draw
66%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
61%
No
39%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis slightly favors FC Groningen with a 38% win probability compared to Ajax's 34%.
- FC Groningen has won their last two away games in a row and shows a rising form.
- The last head-to-head match resulted in a 3:1 away victory for FC Groningen.
Risk Factors
- There is limited data available regarding the duel statistics for the last 5 games of both teams.
Overview
Ajax (5th place, 56 points) hosts FC Groningen (9th place, 48 points) at the Kras Stadion. Eredivisie match on May 21, 2026, 6:45 PM. Ajax aims to solidify their position in the upper half of the table, while Groningen seeks to close the gap.
Form
Ajax's league form is WWDLD. The team recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches. Their last game was a draw. FC Groningen's form is DLLWW. In their last 5 league games, the team achieved 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. They have won their last two matches.
Statistics
Ajax scores an average of 1.82 goals per game and concedes 1.21 goals. At home, they average 1.78 goals scored and 0.94 goals conceded. FC Groningen scores an average of 1.44 goals and concedes 1.32 goals. Away from home, the team scores 1.47 goals and concedes 1.80 goals. Ajax kept 10 clean sheets, as did FC Groningen with 10 clean sheets. At the Kras Stadion, an average of 2.6 goals are scored per game, with both teams scoring in 60% of matches and 60% of matches having over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In 4 head-to-head matches between Ajax and FC Groningen, Ajax recorded 2 wins, FC Groningen 1 win, and there was 1 draw. Ajax scored 8 goals, while FC Groningen scored 6 goals. The last encounter on March 7, 2026, resulted in a 1:3 victory for FC Groningen.
Key Players
For Ajax, Mika Godts (17 goals, 12 assists, Avg 7.59 Rating) and Wout Weghorst (8 goals, 4 assists, Avg 7.18 Rating) are key players in attack. Steven Berghuis (4 goals, 2 assists, Avg 7.34 Rating) also contributes significantly and shows rising form. Not nominated for Ajax are Oscar Gloukh (6 goals, 6 assists) and Youri Regeer (0 goals, 2 assists). For FC Groningen, Thom van Bergen (9 goals, 4 assists, Avg 6.94 Rating) stands out in attack. Marco Rente (3 goals, 4 assists, Avg 6.99 Rating) is important defensively, while Tygo Land (3 goals, 1 assist, Avg 6.77 Rating) shows rising form with 2 goals in the last 5 games. Not nominated for FC Groningen is Younes Taha (5 goals, 9 assists).
Goalkeepers
Maarten Paes is the goalkeeper for Ajax, with an average rating of 6.96. The team has kept 10 clean sheets this season. Etienne Vaessen is the goalkeeper for FC Groningen, with an average rating of 6.81. FC Groningen's team also managed to keep 10 clean sheets.
Influences
Ajax shows strength at home with an average of 1.78 goals scored and 0.94 goals conceded. The Kras Stadion features an artificial turf pitch. Ajax has a record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 0 losses on artificial turf, with a goal difference of 12:8. FC Groningen has a record of 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses on artificial turf, with a goal difference of 9:7. The venue averages 2.6 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 3 out of 5 matches and 3 out of 5 matches ending with over 2.5 goals.