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Eredivisie

FC Utrecht - SC Heerenveen

05/21/2026, 07:00 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
FC Utrecht
1.9
Total xG
3.0
SC Heerenveen
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

3:1

6%

3:0

6%
What influences the xG?
FUSH

FC Utrecht

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.47
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.12
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.12
Ángel Alarcón on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)

SC Heerenveen

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.28
Declining form (1 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.22
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.68
+0.68
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Utrecht: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 2
    FC Utrecht: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)

  • 3
    FC Utrecht with SĂ©bastien Haller: 6.7 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    SC Heerenveen: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    FC Utrecht: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

56%

Draw

25%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

44%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for FC Utrecht with a probability of 56%
  • FC Utrecht's current goal scoring rate (2.0 goals per game) exceeds their season average (1.6), while SC Heerenveen's goal production (1.0) is below their season average (1.7)
  • FC Utrecht demonstrates strong home defense, conceding an average of 0.68 goals per home game. This contrasts with SC Heerenveen's away defense, which concedes an average of 2.07 goals per away game
Risk Factors
  • Both teams, FC Utrecht and SC Heerenveen, had only 4 days since their last match
  • SC Heerenveen averaged 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating a relatively low offensive output
Overview

FC Utrecht (6th place, 53 points) host SC Heerenveen (8th place, 51 points) at Stadion Galgenwaard. The Eredivisie match takes place on May 21, 2026, 9:00 PM. Both teams are competing for top table positions and qualification for international competitions

Form

FC Utrecht displays strong form with four wins and one loss in their last five games (WLWWW). They recently achieved three consecutive wins. In their last five home matches, they recorded four wins and one draw. SC Heerenveen shows a mixed record of two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five fixtures (LWWLD). Their last game ended in a draw

Statistics

FC Utrecht averages 1.62 goals scored per game and concedes 1.24 goals per game. At home, they are defensively very strong with an average of 0.68 goals conceded and 1.63 goals scored per home game. SC Heerenveen averages 1.68 goals scored per game and 1.56 goals conceded. Away from home, they concede an average of 2.07 goals and score 1.71 goals per away game. Both teams scored in 20 FC Utrecht matches and 22 SC Heerenveen matches. At Stadion Galgenwaard, an average of 2.6 goals were scored per game, and both teams scored in only one of five matches. According to Advanced Stats, FC Utrecht is currently scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.6). SC Heerenveen's goal production has stalled (1.0), compared to their season average of 1.7

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head matches, FC Utrecht secured two wins and three draws, while SC Heerenveen did not win any. FC Utrecht scored nine goals, with SC Heerenveen netting six. The most recent encounter on February 1, 2026, resulted in a 1-1 draw. FC Utrecht has been more dominant in recent direct clashes

Key Players

For FC Utrecht, midfielder Dani de Wit is important with 7 goals and 3 assists this season. He showed a strong performance in the last five games with 3 goals and 1 assist. Gjivai ZechiBEl contributed 8 goals and 7 assists this season, providing 1 goal and 3 assists in the last five games. Defender Souffian El Karouani stands out with 11 assists this season. For SC Heerenveen, Jacob Trenskow is the top attacker with 12 goals and 5 assists this season. Joris van Overeem is a key playmaker in midfield with 9 assists this season. Marcus Linday scored 1 goal in the last five games and shows a rising form

Goalkeepers

Vasilios Barkas is FC Utrecht's goalkeeper and kept nine clean sheets in 33 season appearances. Bernt Klaverboer guards SC Heerenveen's goal and recorded five clean sheets in 29 appearances. Barkas shows stable form, while Klaverboer shows rising form in the last five games

Influences

Stadion Galgenwaard is known for an average of 2.6 goals per game. In FC Utrecht's last five home games, both teams scored only once. FC Utrecht is very stable at home with an average of 1.63 goals scored and 0.68 goals conceded. SC Heerenveen concedes an average of 2.07 goals away from home

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