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FC Utrecht – SC Heerenveen3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
FC Utrecht
1.92
Total xG
2.97
SC Heerenveen
1.05
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | FC Utrecht | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.68 | +0.68 |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.47 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.28 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.22 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.12 | |
| Ángel Alarcón on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for FC Utrecht with a probability of 56%
- FC Utrecht's current goal scoring rate (2.0 goals per game) exceeds their season average (1.6), while SC Heerenveen's goal production (1.0) is below their season average (1.7)
- FC Utrecht demonstrates strong home defense, conceding an average of 0.68 goals per home game. This contrasts with SC Heerenveen's away defense, which concedes an average of 2.07 goals per away game
Risks
- Both teams, FC Utrecht and SC Heerenveen, had only 4 days since their last match
- SC Heerenveen averaged 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating a relatively low offensive output
All probabilities
Result
FC Utrecht56%
Draw25%
SC Heerenveen19%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Double chance
FC Utrecht or draw81%
SC Heerenveen or draw44%
No draw75%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
3:1
6%
3:0
6%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Utrecht: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- FC Utrecht: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)
- FC Utrecht with Sébastien Haller: 6.7 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- SC Heerenveen: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- FC Utrecht: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
FC Utrecht 4-2-3-1 · SC Heerenveen 4-2-3-1
FC Utrecht
- 1 V. Barkas
- 23 N. Vesterlund
- 3 M. van der Hoorn
- 44 M. Eerdhuijzen
- 16 S. Elkarouani
- 27 A. Engwanda
- 21 G. Zechiël
- 10 Y. Cathline
- 20 D. de Wit
- 11 J. Karlsson
- 18 A. Stepanov
SC Heerenveen
- 22 B. Klaverboer
- 45 O. Johansen Braude
- 4 S. Kersten
- 3 M. Willemsen
- 19 V. Zagaritis
- 16 M. Linday
- 6 J. van Overeem
- 20 J. Trenskow
- 10 R. Meerveld
- 11 L. Oyen
- 9 D. Vente
Substitutes
- 2 S. Horemans
- 25 M. Brouwer
- 33 K. Gadellaa
- 8 C. Bozdogan
- 24 N. Viergever
- 91 S. Haller
- 15 A. Blake
- 43 R. el Arguioui
- 77 Ángel Galiot
- 5 E. Adeile
- 53 N. Viereck
- 57 P. Kloosterboer
- 18 L. Nordås
- 7 M. Rivera
- 8 L. Brouwers
- 17 N. Søyset Hopland
- 28 H. Petrov
- 31 N. Bakker
- 44 A. Noppert
- 50 E. Gürbüz
- 15 M. Egbring
- 36 N. Courtens Mabeneyshi
- 35 I. Ahmed
- 40 C.Bonevacia
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