🇦🇷

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

River Plate - Belgrano

05/24/2026, 06:30 PM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
River Plate
1.7
Total xG
2.6
Belgrano
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
RPBEL

River Plate

Attack strength (1.67x league average)
+0.75
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.03
Sebastián Driussi not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists)
Gonzalo Montiel on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
29% of goal output missing (only 90% available)
Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.5 goals/match)

Belgrano

3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.09
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average)
+0.09
Francisco González Metilli on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
36% of goal output missing (only 87% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match)

League

Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match)
-0.43
-0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    River Plate with Juan Cruz Meza: 3.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.8 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Belgrano: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Belgrano with Santiago Longo: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Belgrano: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    River Plate: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

27%

Away Win

18%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

82%

Away or Draw

45%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Favorites Role: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 55% for River Plate
  • Home Strength: River Plate shows solid home form with 3 wins in their last 5 home games and an average tactic of 6.8 shots on target
  • Head-to-Head: River Plate dominated the previous 2 direct encounters against Belgrano with 2 wins and a goal difference of 6:0
Overview

River Plate (2nd place, 29 points) host Belgrano (5th place, 26 points) in the Liga Profesional de Fútbol on May 24, 2026, 7:30 PM. River Plate aims to solidify their top position, while Belgrano seeks to climb higher in the standings

Form

River Plate has achieved 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 games (Form: WLDWW). Their last result was a win. Belgrano also records 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last 5 games (Form: LWWWD). Their last result was a draw. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

River Plate scores an average of 1.42 goals per game and concedes an average of 0.74 goals. The team kept 9 clean sheets and both teams scored in 6 matches. At home, their goal average is 1.46 goals scored and 0.77 goals conceded. Belgrano scores an average of 1.11 goals and concedes 0.74 goals per match. The team recorded 10 clean sheets and both teams scored in 7 matches. Away from home, Belgrano scores an average of 1.14 goals and concedes 1.29 goals

Head-to-Head

In the 2 previous head-to-head matches, River Plate won both encounters. River Plate scored a total of 6 goals, while Belgrano remained goalless. The last meeting on April 05, 2026, ended in a 3-0 victory for River Plate. River Plate has shown to be the more dominant team in these fixtures

Key Players

For River Plate, the following players stand out: Facundo Colidio, an attacker, with 4 goals and 2 assists this season. In the last 5 games, he scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist with an average rating of 7.20, showing a rising trend. Defender Marcos Acuña scored once and provided one assist this season, scoring 1 goal in the last 5 matches with a rating of 7.31, also with a rising trend. Lucas Martínez Quarta, another defender, has contributed 2 goals this season, with 1 goal in the last 5 games and a stable rating of 7.17. For Belgrano, key players include: Adrián Sánchez, a midfielder, with 1 goal and 1 assist this season, who also scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist in the last 5 games with a rating of 7.33, showing a rising trend. Midfielder Lucas Zelarayán scored 4 goals and 1 assist this season, while attacker Lucas Passerini contributed 6 assists this season, 3 of which came in the last 5 games

Goalkeepers

For Belgrano, Thiago Cardozo is in goal, having participated in 19 games this season. River Plate has kept 9 clean sheets this season. Belgrano maintained a clean sheet in 10 matches

Influences

River Plate shows a solid performance at home with an average of 1.46 goals scored and 0.77 goals conceded per home game. Belgrano scores an average of 1.14 goals away from home, but concedes 1.29 goals per away game

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.