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River Plate – Belgrano2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
River Plate
1.67
Total xG
2.56
Belgrano
0.88
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | River Plate | Belgrano |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.67x league average) | +0.75 | |
| Low-scoring league (2.1 goals/match) | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Sebastián Driussi not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Gonzalo Montiel on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 29% of goal output missing (only 90% available) | ||
| Francisco González Metilli on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 36% of goal output missing (only 87% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Favorites Role: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 55% for River Plate
- Home Strength: River Plate shows solid home form with 3 wins in their last 5 home games and an average tactic of 6.8 shots on target
- Head-to-Head: River Plate dominated the previous 2 direct encounters against Belgrano with 2 wins and a goal difference of 6:0
Risks
All probabilities
Result
River Plate55%
Draw27%
Belgrano18%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Double chance
River Plate or draw82%
Belgrano or draw45%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
3:1
5%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- River Plate with Juan Cruz Meza: 3.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.8 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Belgrano: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
- Belgrano with Santiago Longo: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)
- Belgrano: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- River Plate: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
River Plate 4-2-3-1 · Belgrano 4-4-2
River Plate
- 41 S. Beltrán
- 16 F. Bustos
- 28 L. Martínez Quarta
- 13 L. Rivero Cruz
- 21 M. Acuña
- 6 A. Moreno
- 15 F. Vera
- 24 J. Meza
- 11 F. Colidio
- 26 T. Galván
- 35 J. Freitas
Belgrano
- 25 T. Cardozo Brugman
- 45 A. Falcón
- 14 L. Morales
- 2 A. Maldonado
- 3 A. Sporle
- 24 E. Rigoni
- 21 A. Sánchez
- 5 S. Longo
- 53 J. Velazquez
- 9 L. Passerini
- 10 L. Zelarayán
Substitutes
- 19 R. Páez Andrade
- 20 G. Pezzella
- 29 G. Montiel
- 10 J. Quintero Paniagua
- 22 K. Castaño Gil
- 7 M. Salas
- 8 M. Meza
- 1 F. Armani
- 34 G. Galoppo
- 31 F. González
- 25 L. Pereyra
- 44 L.Silva
- 20 F. Vázquez
- 30 G. Zelarayán
- 26 A. Benítez Cabrera
- 37 L. Gutierrez
- 32 J. Mavilla
- 22 N. Fernández
- 51 R. Hernandes
- 11 F. González Metilli
- 16 F. Ricca Rostagnol
- 23 M. Vicentini
- 42 J. Lucco
- 13 ?. Ocampo
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