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Liga MX

Cruz Azul - Pumas UNAM

05/22/2026, 02:00 AM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Cruz Azul
1.4
Total xG
2.4
Pumas UNAM
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
CAPU

Cruz Azul

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average)
+0.15
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 10, 7 places gap)
+0.05

Pumas UNAM

Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.30
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.16
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 3, 7 places gap)
-0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.02
Adalberto Carrasquilla on the bench (2 goals, 6 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.41
+0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Cruz Azul: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Pumas UNAM: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 3
    Pumas UNAM: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 4
    Cruz Azul with Amaury GarcĂ­a: 2.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Cruz Azul: 69% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

30%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Significant performance gap: Cruz Azul (3rd place) hosts Pumas UNAM (10th place)
  • Cruz Azul's current top form (WWWDW) compared to Pumas UNAM's mixed form (WDDLW)
  • Mathematical analysis: Pipeline predicts 47% home win probability and 77% for home double chance (win or draw)
Risk Factors
  • Pumas UNAM managed a 2-2 draw in the last head-to-head, indicating a risk of shared points
  • Pumas UNAM averaged 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games, suggesting limited offensive penetration
Overview

Cruz Azul (3rd place, 35 points) host Pumas UNAM (10th place, 21 points) in a Liga MX match. The game takes place on May 22, 2026, 2:00 AM. Cruz Azul aims to solidify its top position, while Pumas UNAM is in the middle of the table. The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 47% probability.

Form

Cruz Azul's current form across all competitions is WWWDW. The team secured 4 wins and 1 draw in their last five matches. Cruz Azul won their last game 2-1 away against Guadalajara. Before that, there was a 2-2 home draw against Guadalajara and a 1-0 home win against Atlas. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Pumas UNAM's current form across all competitions is WDDLW. Pumas UNAM achieved 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five matches. Pumas UNAM won their last game 1-0 at home against Pachuca. This was preceded by a 0-1 away loss against Pachuca and two 3-3 draws against América.

Statistics

Cruz Azul averages 1.81 goals scored per game and concedes 1.12 goals. At home, they average 1.83 goals scored and 0.96 goals conceded per home game. Cruz Azul has kept 11 clean sheets this season and 30 games have seen both teams score.

Pumas UNAM averages 1.69 goals scored per game and concedes 1.33 goals. Away from home, they average 1.68 goals scored and 1.58 goals conceded per away game. Pumas UNAM has kept 11 clean sheets this season and 25 games have seen both teams score.

Cruz Azul is currently scoring more frequently (2.4) than their season average (1.9). Pumas UNAM is scoring consistently (~1.8 goals per game).

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head matches, Cruz Azul recorded 2 wins, Pumas UNAM 1 win, and there were 2 draws. The goal difference is 11:9 in favor of Cruz Azul. The last encounter ended in a 2-2 draw on March 15, 2026. Cruz Azul has been more dominant in recent direct duels.

Key Players

For Cruz Azul, José Paradela (10 goals, 10 assists this season, 2 goals, 3 assists in last 5 games) and Carlos Rodríguez (8 goals, 6 assists this season, 1 goal, 1 assist in last 5 games) are key performers. Osinachi Ebere shows rising form with 3 goals in the last 5 games.

For Pumas UNAM, JordĂĄn Carrillo (6 goals, 3 assists this season, 3 goals, 1 assist in last 5 games) and Juninho (8 goals, 4 assists this season, 1 goal, 1 assist in last 5 games) are crucial. Robert Morales contributed 8 goals and 2 assists this season, along with 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games. Adalberto Carrasquilla (2 goals, 6 assists) is not nominated.

Goalkeepers

Cruz Azul's goalkeeper, Kevin Mier, has played in 24 season appearances. The team has achieved a total of 11 clean sheets.

For Pumas UNAM, goalkeeper Keylor Navas has been on the field in 36 season appearances. The team also recorded 11 clean sheets.

Influences

Cruz Azul proves to be offensively strong and defensively stable at home, averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.96 goals conceded. Pumas UNAM concedes an average of 1.58 goals per away game.

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