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Cruz Azul – Pumas UNAM0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Cruz Azul
1.43
Total xG
2.36
Pumas UNAM
0.93
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cruz Azul | Pumas UNAM |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.41 | +0.41 |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.30 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.16 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 3, 7 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 10, 7 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Adalberto Carrasquilla on the bench (2 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Significant performance gap: Cruz Azul (3rd place) hosts Pumas UNAM (10th place)
- Cruz Azul's current top form (WWWDW) compared to Pumas UNAM's mixed form (WDDLW)
- Mathematical analysis: Pipeline predicts 47% home win probability and 77% for home double chance (win or draw)
Risks
- Pumas UNAM managed a 2-2 draw in the last head-to-head, indicating a risk of shared points
- Pumas UNAM averaged 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games, suggesting limited offensive penetration
All probabilities
Result
Cruz Azul47%
Draw30%
Pumas UNAM23%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Double chance
Cruz Azul or draw77%
Pumas UNAM or draw53%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
12%
0:0
11%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cruz Azul: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Pumas UNAM: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Pumas UNAM: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Cruz Azul with Amaury García: 2.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Cruz Azul: 69% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Cruz Azul 4-2-3-1 · Pumas UNAM 3-5-2
Cruz Azul
- 23 K. Mier Robles
- 16 Á. Márquez Castañeda
- 4 W. Ditta Pérez
- 33 G. Piovi
- 3 O. Campos Chagoya
- 17 A. García Moreno
- 8 A. Palavecino Lamela
- 20 J. Paradela
- 19 C. Rodríguez Gómez
- 29 C. Rotondi
- 11 O. Ebere
Pumas UNAM
- 1 K. Navas Gamboa
- 7 R. López Quiñones
- 6 N. da Silva
- 5 R. Duarte Sánchez
- 21 C. Antuna Romero
- 20 S. Trigos Nava
- 45 P. Vite Uca
- 33 J. Carrillo Rodríguez
- 77 Á. Angulo Mosquera
- 31 R. Morales
- 23 O. Vieira dos Santos Júnior
Substitutes
- 5 J. Orozco Chiquete
- 1 A. Gudiño Portillo
- 18 L. Romero
- 193 K. Velázquez
- 194 A. Morales Rosas
- 214 M. Levy Mendaña
- 21 G. Fernández Leites
- 22 J. Rodarte Barragán
- 10 A. Montaño
- 170 A. Castro Sevilla
- 28 A. Carrasquilla Alcázar
- 19 J. Rivas Gutiérrez
- 24 A. Leone Larios
- 2 P. Bennevendo Peña
- 15 U. Rivas Gilio
- 26 ?. Rico Reyes
- 215 ?. Azuaje García
- 35 P. Lara Nevarez
- 193 Dennis Ramirez
- 14 C. Garza Cantu
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