La Liga
Getafe - Villarreal
02/14/2026, 03:15 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.0
1.0
1:1
15%0:0
15%0:1
12%1:0
12%1:2
7%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
33%
Draw
34%
Away Win
33%
Goals
Over 1.5
62%
Under 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
33%
Under 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
15%
Under 3.5
85%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
67%
Away or Draw
67%
No Draw
66%
Both Score
Yes
42%
No
58%
Key Factors
- Attack vs. defense: Villarreal's strong away offense (2.0 goals/game) meets Getafe's stable home defense (0.9 goals conceded/game)
- Weakened Getafe attack: Getafe is missing key goalscorers, with only 39% of their usual goal threat available, making scoring a challenge
- Balanced prediction: Despite the large gap in the standings, mathematical models see a completely open match (33% home win, 34% draw, 33% away win), suggesting a close game
Risk Factors
- Getafe's lack of goal threat: Due to missing key players, Getafe's offense is significantly weakened, making a home win difficult
- Villarreal's defensive weakness away: Conceding 1.75 goals per away game, Villarreal's defense is vulnerable and could struggle even against a weakened attack
- Low-scoring venue: The stadium's history shows very few goals, which could neutralize Villarreal's strongest weapon â their attack
Overview
Getafe (11th place, 26 points) host Villarreal (4th place, 45 points) at the Coliseum Alfonso PĂ©rez
La Liga match on February 14, 2026, 4:15 PM
The league standings suggest a clear favorite role for the visitors
However, the mathematical prediction is extremely balanced, with a 34% probability for a draw and around 33% for a win for each team
Form
Getafe's form from the last five matches (all competitions): LLDDW (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)
Villarreal's form from the last five matches (all competitions): LLLDW (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
In the league, Getafe shows inconsistent form (WWLWL)
Villarreal, on the other hand, is in good form in the league (WWDLW), which contrasts with their overall form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Getafe has one of the weakest offenses with only 0.78 goals per game, but is defensively more stable at home (0.9 goals conceded per game)
Villarreal has a very strong attack (1.95 goals per game) and is particularly prolific away (2.0 goals per game)
However, Villarreal's defense is vulnerable on the road, conceding an average of 1.75 goals
Matches at the Coliseum Alfonso PĂ©rez have recently been very low-scoring, with an average of only 1.2 goals in the last five games
Head-to-Head
Getafe has not won in the last five direct encounters
Villarreal won twice, while three matches ended in a draw
The goal difference from these matches is 6:3 in favor of Villarreal
The last meeting was won by Villarreal with a 2-0 scoreline
Key Players
Luis Milla is a key playmaker for Getafe with 8 season assists and a rising form trend
Mauro Arambarri has already scored 4 goals this season
For Villarreal, Nicolas Pépé stands out with 3 goals and 3 assists
Tajon Buchanan is also a key offensive player with 5 goals this season
Goalkeepers
Getafe's goalkeeper David Soria has been part of a team that kept 6 clean sheets this season
For Villarreal, with Luiz JĂșnior in goal, the team has managed to keep a clean sheet 7 times
Influences
The Coliseum Alfonso PĂ©rez is a stadium where few goals have been scored recently (average of 1.2 per game)
The probability of both teams scoring was only 20% in the last five home games
Getafe is defensively solid at home (0.9 goals conceded per game)
Villarreal, however, is very strong offensively away (2.0 goals per game), but also defensively vulnerable (1.75 goals conceded per game)