đŸ‡ČđŸ‡œ

Liga MX

Pumas UNAM - Cruz Azul

05/25/2026, 01:00 AM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Pumas UNAM
1.1
Total xG
2.6
Cruz Azul
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
PUCA

Pumas UNAM

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.10
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 3, 7 places gap)
-0.09
J. MacĂ­as GuzmĂĄn not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)

Cruz Azul

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.09
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 10, 7 places gap)
+0.05
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.03
Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.9 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.41
+0.41
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Cruz Azul: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 2
    Pumas UNAM: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

28%

Draw

29%

Away Win

42%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

58%

Away or Draw

72%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Cruz Azul with 42% probability
  • Cruz Azul is unbeaten in their last five games (3 wins, 2 draws), while Pumas show mixed form
  • Cruz Azul averaged 6.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, compared to Pumas' 2.8
Risk Factors
  • Both teams had only 3 days of rest since their last match, potentially leading to fatigue
  • Pumas UNAM averaged 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Two of the last five head-to-head matches ended in a draw, including the most recent 0-0 game
Overview

Pumas UNAM (10th place, 21 points) host Cruz Azul (3rd place, 35 points) in a Liga MX match. The game takes place on May 25, 2026, 2:00 AM. Pumas aim to climb the table, while Cruz Azul seeks to solidify their position at the top.

Form

Pumas UNAM has shown a form of DDLWD in their last five games. This includes 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss. Their last match ended in a draw. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Cruz Azul presents a form of WWDWD in their last five fixtures. They recorded 3 wins and 2 draws, with no losses. Their last game also ended in a draw.

Statistics

Pumas UNAM averages 1.65 goals scored per game and concedes 1.30 goals per game over the season. In home games, the average is 1.62 goals scored and 1.05 goals conceded. The team kept 12 clean sheets. Both teams scored in 25 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 19 matches.

Cruz Azul has a season average of 1.77 goals scored per game and 1.09 goals conceded. Away from home, they averaged 1.79 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded. They also achieved 12 clean sheets. Both teams scored in 30 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 23 matches.

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pumas UNAM secured 1 win, while Cruz Azul won 2 games. 2 matches ended in a draw. Pumas scored 7 goals and Cruz Azul scored 9 goals. The most recent encounter on May 22, 2026, ended in a 0-0 draw.

Key Players

JordĂĄn Carrillo (Attacker) of Pumas UNAM has scored 6 goals and provided 3 assists this season. In the last 5 games, he showed rising form with 3 goals and 1 assist.

Juninho (Attacker) contributed 8 goals and 4 assists this season. In his last 5 appearances, he recorded 1 goal and 1 assist.

Robert Morales (Attacker) has scored 8 goals and provided 2 assists this season.

José Paradela (Midfielder) of Cruz Azul has been involved in 10 goals and 10 assists this season. In the last 5 games, he scored 1 goal and provided 2 assists, showing stable form.

Carlos RodrĂ­guez (Midfielder) has 8 goals and 6 assists this season. He contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in the last 5 games.

AgustĂ­n Palavecino (Midfielder) recorded 6 goals and 3 assists this season. He scored 1 goal in the last 5 games.

Goalkeepers

Keylor Navas of Pumas UNAM played in 36 season matches. The team kept a clean sheet in 12 games.

Kevin Mier of Cruz Azul made 24 season appearances. His team also kept 12 clean sheets, indicating a higher clean sheet ratio per game.

Influences

Pumas UNAM averages 1.62 goals scored at home and concedes 1.05 goals. Cruz Azul averages 1.79 goals scored away and concedes 1.32 goals.

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.