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Pumas UNAM – Cruz Azul1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Pumas UNAM
1.14
Total xG
2.57
Cruz Azul
1.43
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Pumas UNAM | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.41 | +0.41 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 3, 7 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 10, 7 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.03 | |
| J. Macías Guzmán not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Cruz Azul with 42% probability
- Cruz Azul is unbeaten in their last five games (3 wins, 2 draws), while Pumas show mixed form
- Cruz Azul averaged 6.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, compared to Pumas' 2.8
Risks
- Both teams had only 3 days of rest since their last match, potentially leading to fatigue
- Pumas UNAM averaged 2.8 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Two of the last five head-to-head matches ended in a draw, including the most recent 0-0 game
All probabilities
Result
Pumas UNAM28%
Draw29%
Cruz Azul42%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Double chance
Pumas UNAM or draw58%
Cruz Azul or draw72%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cruz Azul: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)
- Pumas UNAM: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
Lineups
Pumas UNAM 4-4-2 · Cruz Azul 4-2-3-1
Pumas UNAM
- 1 K. Navas Gamboa
- 7 R. López Quiñones
- 6 N. da Silva
- 5 R. Duarte Sánchez
- 77 Á. Angulo Mosquera
- 21 C. Antuna Romero
- 28 A. Carrasquilla Alcázar
- 45 P. Vite Uca
- 33 J. Carrillo Rodríguez
- 31 R. Morales
- 23 O. Vieira dos Santos Júnior
Cruz Azul
- 23 K. Mier Robles
- 16 Á. Márquez Castañeda
- 4 W. Ditta Pérez
- 33 G. Piovi
- 3 O. Campos Chagoya
- 17 A. García Moreno
- 8 A. Palavecino Lamela
- 20 J. Paradela
- 19 C. Rodríguez Gómez
- 29 C. Rotondi
- 11 O. Ebere
Substitutes
- 19 J. Rivas Gutiérrez
- 24 A. Leone Larios
- 2 P. Bennevendo Peña
- 15 U. Rivas Gilio
- 20 S. Trigos Nava
- 26 ?. Rico Reyes
- 215 ?. Azuaje García
- 35 P. Lara Nevarez
- 193 Dennis Ramirez
- 14 C. Garza Cantu
- 5 J. Orozco Chiquete
- 1 A. Gudiño Portillo
- 18 L. Romero
- 194 A. Morales Rosas
- 7 N. Ibáñez
- 21 G. Fernández Leites
- 22 J. Rodarte Barragán
- 10 A. Montaño
- 170 A. Castro Sevilla
- 32 C. Jiménez Ducloux
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