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Sweden – Tunisia5 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Sweden
1.50
Total xG
2.68
Tunisia
1.18
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Sweden | Tunisia |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.19 | +1.19 |
| Attack weakness (0.31x league average) | −1.16 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.71 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.56 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.30 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.28 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 46 vs 32, 14 places gap) | −0.19 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 32 vs 46, 14 places gap) | +0.10 |
Key factors
- Tunisia's exceptional defensive record with 0 goals conceded and 10 clean sheets in 10 season games, including 5 away clean sheets
- Sweden's positive recent attacking form with 2.0 goals per game, contrasted with Tunisia's recent struggle in goal production (0.5 goals per game)
- Estadio BBVA Bancomer shows a tendency for high-scoring games with an average of 3.6 goals and 100% Over 2.5 in observed matches
Risks
- Tunisia recently conceded 5 goals in their last game against Belgium, indicating a potential defensive vulnerability
- Tunisia's low average of 2.0 shots on target in their last 5 games suggests limited offensive threat
- Sweden's season average of 1.88 goals conceded per game (2.0 in home games) highlights defensive weaknesses
All probabilities
Result
Sweden45%
Draw25%
Tunisia29%
Double chance
Sweden or draw71%
Tunisia or draw55%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:0
10%
2:1
9%
0:1
8%
2:0
8%
5:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sweden with Isak Hien: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Tunisia with Ferjani Sassi: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (4 of 7 games)
- Sweden: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Sweden 3-1-4-2 · Tunisia 5-3-2
Sweden
- 23 K. Nordfeldt
- 2 G. Lagerbielke
- 4 I. Hien
- 3 V. Nilsson Lindelöf
- 16 J. Karlström
- 21 A. Bernhardsson
- 10 B. Nygren
- 18 Y. Ayari
- 5 G. Gudmundsson
- 17 V. Gyökeres
- 9 A. Isak
Tunisia
- 1 A. Chamakh
- 20 Y. Valery
- 4 O. Rekik
- 3 M. Talbi
- 21 A. Ben Hmida
- 2 A. Abdi
- 13 R. Khedira
- 17 E. Skhiri
- 10 H. Mejbri
- 8 E. Saad
- 25 A. Slimane
Substitutes
- 19 M. Svanberg
- 20 E. Smith
- 8 D. Svensson
- 15 C. Starfelt
- 14 H. Ekdal
- 12 V. Johansson
- 1 J. Widell Zetterström
- 11 A. Elanga
- 7 L. Bergvall
- 13 K. Sema
- 25 G. Nilsson
- 26 T. Ali
- 22 B. Zeneli
- 6 H. Johansson
- 24 E. Stroud
- 11 I. Gharbi
- 6 D. Bronn
- 15 M. Belhaj Mahmoud
- 7 M. Achouri
- 26 S. Tounekti
- 18 R. Elloumi
- 22 S. Ben Hsan
- 12 M. Ben Ouannes
- 9 H. Mastouri
- 14 K. Ayari
- 19 F. Chaouat
- 16 A. Dahmen
- 5 A. Arous
- 23 M. Neffati
- 24 R. Chikhaoui
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