World Cup
Sweden - Tunisia
06/15/2026, 02:00 AM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.7
1.2
1:1
12%1:0
10%2:1
9%0:1
8%2:0
8%What influences the xG?
Sweden
Tunisia
League
The Lab
- 1Sweden with Isak Hien: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 2Tunisia with Ferjani Sassi: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (4 of 7 games)
- 3Sweden: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
45%
Draw
25%
Away Win
29%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
71%
Away or Draw
55%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
55%
No
45%
Key Factors
- Tunisia's exceptional defensive record with 0 goals conceded and 10 clean sheets in 10 season games, including 5 away clean sheets
- Sweden's positive recent attacking form with 2.0 goals per game, contrasted with Tunisia's recent struggle in goal production (0.5 goals per game)
- Estadio BBVA Bancomer shows a tendency for high-scoring games with an average of 3.6 goals and 100% Over 2.5 in observed matches
Risk Factors
- Tunisia recently conceded 5 goals in their last game against Belgium, indicating a potential defensive vulnerability
- Tunisia's low average of 2.0 shots on target in their last 5 games suggests limited offensive threat
- Sweden's season average of 1.88 goals conceded per game (2.0 in home games) highlights defensive weaknesses
Overview
Sweden faces Tunisia at Estadio BBVA Bancomer in their opening World Cup group stage match
The game is scheduled for June 15, 2026, 2:00 AM
Both teams start with zero points, aiming for a strong start to the tournament
Form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Sweden's form over the last five games is DWWLD
They recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss
Recent results include a 2-2 draw against Greece and a 1-3 loss against Norway
Tunisia's form over the last five games is DWDLL
They achieved 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses
Recent results include a 0-5 loss against Belgium and a 0-1 loss against Austria
Statistics
Sweden scored an average of 1.25 goals per game this season and conceded 1.88 goals
They kept 0 clean sheets in 8 games
Both teams scored in 5 of 8 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 games
Tunisia showed strong offense with an average of 2.2 goals per game and an impressive record of 0 goals conceded per game
They kept 10 clean sheets in 10 games
Both teams did not score in any of the 10 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 games
Estadio BBVA Bancomer recorded an average of 3.6 goals in the observed matches
In all 5 games, both teams scored and there were over 2.5 goals
The tactical analysis indicates that Sweden is currently scoring more frequently (2.0 goals on average) than their season average (1.6 goals)
Tunisia's goal production has recently stalled (0.5 goals on average), while their season average is 1.3 goals
Head-to-Head
The dataset does not list any previous head-to-head matches between Sweden and Tunisia
Key Players
For Sweden, Alexander Isak (2 goals in 201 minutes, average rating 6.89), Benjamin Nygren (1 goal in 346 minutes, average rating 6.90), and Viktor Gyökeres (1 goal in 258 minutes, average rating 6.71) show solid form
For Tunisia, Hannibal (1 assist, average rating 7.08), Anis Slimane (1 assist, average rating 6.62), and Montassar Talbi (average rating 6.67) stand out
Goalkeepers
For Sweden, Kristoffer Nordfeldt is in goal, who has not recorded any clean sheets this season
For Tunisia, Abdelmouhib Chamakh is listed as goalkeeper, with the team achieving 10 clean sheets this season, 5 of which were in away games
Influences
Sweden's home goals average 1.33 per game, while they conceded 2.0 home goals
Tunisia scored an average of 2.25 goals away and conceded 0.0 goals
Estadio BBVA Bancomer is known for high-scoring games with an average of 3.6 goals per match
All observed matches at the stadium resulted in both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals