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Côte d'Ivoire – Ecuador1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Côte d'Ivoire
0.99
Total xG
2.24
Ecuador
1.25
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Côte d'Ivoire | Ecuador |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.97 | |
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.86 | |
| Attack strength (1.32x league average) | −0.83 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.62 | |
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.60 | +0.60 |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.44 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 44 vs 24, 20 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 24 vs 44, 20 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.00 |
Key factors
- Ecuador's Favoritism: Mathematical analysis predicts an away win with 41% probability and expected goals of 1.25 versus 0.99 for Côte d'Ivoire
- Ecuador's Defensive Strength: Ecuador recorded an impressive 13 clean sheets in 18 games this season, conceding an average of only 0.28 goals
- Current Form Trend: Both teams show positive form, Côte d'Ivoire with 4 consecutive wins and Ecuador unbeaten in their last 5 matches
Risks
- Limited data availability for head-to-head matches, as no previous encounters are recorded
All probabilities
Result
Côte d'Ivoire28%
Draw32%
Ecuador41%
Double chance
Côte d'Ivoire or draw59%
Ecuador or draw72%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.567%
Under 1.533%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
0:1
12%
1:0
9%
0:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Côte d'Ivoire with Christ Inao Oulaï: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Ecuador: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- Ecuador with Willian Pacho: 1 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Côte d'Ivoire 4-4-2 · Ecuador 4-4-2
Côte d'Ivoire
- 1 Y. Fofana
- 17 G. Doué
- 5 W. Singo
- 20 E. Agbadou
- 3 G. Konan
- 11 Y. Diomande
- 8 F. Kessié
- 6 S. Fofana
- 24 B. Touré
- 19 N. Pépé
- 12 S. Wahi
Ecuador
- 1 H. Galíndez
- 21 A. Franco Palma
- 4 J. Ordóñez Guerrero
- 6 W. Pacho Tenorio
- 3 P. Hincapié Reyna
- 9 J. Zamora
- 23 M. Caicedo Corozo
- 15 P. Vite Uca
- 14 A. Minda García
- 19 G. Plata Jiménez
- 13 E. Valencia Lastra
Substitutes
- 15 A. Traoré
- 10 S. Adingra
- 18 I. Sangaré
- 22 E. Guessand
- 7 K. Odilon
- 9 A. Bonny
- 2 O. Diomande
- 23 A. Lafont
- 21 O. N'Dicka
- 13 C. Operi
- 4 J. Seri
- 25 P. Guiagon
- 16 M. Kone
- 26 C. Inao Oulaï
- 14 O. Diakité
- 24 J. Arévalo Mera
- 10 R. Páez Andrade
- 16 J. Caicedo Medina
- 11 K. Rodríguez Cortéz
- 26 Y. Medina Ortiz
- 18 D. Castillo
- 20 N. Angulo Ramírez
- 17 A. Preciado Quiñónez
- 7 P. Estupiñán Tenorio
- 5 J. Alcívar Macías
- 12 W. Ramírez Preciado
- 22 G. Valle Bustamante
- 2 F. Torres Caicedo
- 8 A. Valencia
- 25 J. Porozo Vernaza
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