World Cup

Côte d'Ivoire - Ecuador

06/14/2026, 11:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Côte d'Ivoire
1.0
Total xG
2.2
Ecuador
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

0:1

12%

1:0

9%

0:2

8%
What influences the xG?
CDECU

Côte d'Ivoire

Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.97
Attack strength (1.32x league average)
-0.83
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.44
Standings disadvantage (pos 44 vs 24, 20 places gap)
-0.17
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.00

Ecuador

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
-0.86
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.62
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.20
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.20
Standings advantage (pos 24 vs 44, 20 places gap)
+0.09

League

High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match)
+0.60
+0.60
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Côte d'Ivoire with Christ Inao Oulaï: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 2
    Ecuador: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 3
    Ecuador with Willian Pacho: 1 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

28%

Draw

32%

Away Win

41%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

59%

Away or Draw

72%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Ecuador's Favoritism: Mathematical analysis predicts an away win with 41% probability and expected goals of 1.25 versus 0.99 for Côte d'Ivoire
  • Ecuador's Defensive Strength: Ecuador recorded an impressive 13 clean sheets in 18 games this season, conceding an average of only 0.28 goals
  • Current Form Trend: Both teams show positive form, Côte d'Ivoire with 4 consecutive wins and Ecuador unbeaten in their last 5 matches
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability for head-to-head matches, as no previous encounters are recorded
Overview

Côte d'Ivoire hosts Ecuador at Lincoln Financial Field in a World Cup match on June 15, 2026, 1:00 AM.

Both teams start in Group X, with Côte d'Ivoire in 2nd place and Ecuador in 3rd place, both with 0 points.

This encounter marks the start of the tournament for both nations

Form

Côte d'Ivoire's form across all competitions is LWWWW.

The team recorded 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 matches, with 4 consecutive wins.

Ecuador's form is WDDWW.

They achieved 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches, with 2 consecutive wins.

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Côte d'Ivoire is currently scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.6), indicating a positive form trend.

Ecuador is also currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.5), also showing a positive form trend

Statistics

Côte d'Ivoire averaged 2.5 goals scored per game this season and conceded an average of 0.0 goals.

They kept 10 clean sheets in 10 games.

Ecuador averaged 0.78 goals scored per game this season and conceded an average of 0.28 goals.

They kept 13 clean sheets in 18 games.

Côte d'Ivoire recorded an average of 3.8 shots on target with 48% possession in their last 5 matches.

Ecuador was possession-dominant in their last 5 matches with 60% possession and an average of 5.0 shots on target

Head-to-Head

There are no previous head-to-head matches between Côte d'Ivoire and Ecuador in the provided dataset

Key Players

For Côte d'Ivoire, Bazoumana Touré (2 goals, 1 assist in 5 games) and Guela Doué (1 goal, 2 assists in 5 games) are important offensive players.

Nicolas Pépé contributed 3 assists in 4 games.

For Ecuador, Enner Valencia (2 goals in 5 games) and Alan Minda (2 goals in 5 games) stand out.

John Yeboah contributed 1 goal and 2 assists in 5 games

Goalkeepers

Yahia Fofana (Côte d'Ivoire) kept 10 clean sheets in 10 season games.

Hernán Galíndez  (Ecuador) achieved 13 clean sheets in 18 games

Influences

Côte d'Ivoire performed particularly strongly in home games, with an average of 2.5 goals scored and 0.0 goals conceded.

Ecuador averaged 0.75 goals scored and 0.75 goals conceded away from home

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.