Match report →
Spain – Cape Verde Islands0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Spain
3.34
Total xG
3.80
Cape Verde Islands
0.46
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Spain | Cape Verde Islands |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 4.1 league avg) | −3.52 | |
| High-scoring league (4.9 goals/match) | +2.36 | +2.36 |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −1.73 | |
| Attack strength (1.62x league average) | +0.69 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 0.7 league avg) | +0.69 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.44 | |
| Declining form (2.2 vs 3.3 season average) | −0.30 | |
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | −0.27 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 70, 69 places gap) | +0.23 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.09 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 70 vs 1, 69 places gap) | −0.08 |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Spain with a 90% probability and 3.34 expected goals
- Spain's seasonal strength is evident with an average of 3.5 goals scored and only 0.33 goals conceded per game
- Cape Verde Islands show a positive form trend in goal-scoring, currently scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.7)
Risks
- The limited head-to-head data prevents a historical analysis of previous encounters
- Spain's recent goal production has slowed, averaging 2.3 goals compared to their season average of 3.1
- Cape Verde Islands have a positive record on artificial turf with 1 win and 1 draw in 2 games (1:0 goals)
All probabilities
Result
Spain90%
Draw8%
Cape Verde Islands2%
Double chance
Spain or draw98%
Cape Verde Islands or draw10%
No draw92%
Goals
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.573%
Under 2.527%
Over 3.552%
Under 3.548%
Both teams score
Yes36%
No64%
Most likely scores
3:0
14%
4:0
12%
5:0
8%
3:1
6%
2:1
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Spain with Aymeric Laporte: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Cape Verde Islands: first goal in 4 of 5 games (80%)
- Spain: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Spain 4-3-3 · Cape Verde Islands 4-1-4-1
Spain
- 23 U. Simón Mendibil
- 5 M. Llorente Moreno
- 22 P. Cubarsí Paredes
- 14 A. Laporte
- 24 M. Cucurella
- 8 F. Ruiz Peña
- 16 Rodri
- 20 P. López
- 7 F. Torres García
- 21 M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
- 9 Pablo Gaviria
Cape Verde Islands
- 1 J. Évora Dias
- 22 S. Moreira
- 4 R. Lopes
- 3 E. Monteiro Sanches Borges
- 13 S. Lopes Cabral
- 6 K. Gonçalves Pereira de Pina
- 20 R. Mendes da Graça
- 15 L. Duarte
- 10 J. Monteiro Alvarenga
- 7 J. Borges Cabral
- 19 D. Rocha Livramento do Rosario
Substitutes
- 3 A. Grimaldo García
- 10 D. Olmo Carvajal
- 4 E. García
- 19 L. Yamal Nasraoui Ebana
- 13 J. Pons
- 15 A. Rodríguez
- 2 M. Pubill Pagès
- 17 N. Williams Arthuer
- 26 B. Iglesias Quintas
- 25 V. Muñoz Villanueva
- 11 Y. Jesús Pino Santos
- 18 M. Zubimendi Ibáñez
- 1 D. Raya Martin
- 6 M. Merino Zazón
- 12 P. Porro Sauceda
- 5 L. Costa
- 14 D. Duarte
- 26 H. Oliveira Alves Varela
- 25 K. Pires
- 21 N. da Costa Jóia
- 17 W. Semedo Johnson
- 8 J. Moreira Fernandes
- 18 T. Gomes Arcanjo
- 23 C. Dos Santos
- 11 G. Mendes Rodrigues
- 12 M. Salomão Brazão Rosa
- 24 W. Cardoso Pina
- 16 J. Semedo Monteiro
- 9 G. Benchimol Tavares
- 2 I. dos Santos Tavares
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