World Cup
Spain - Cape Verde Islands
06/15/2026, 04:00 PM
Expected Goals
3.3
3.8
0.5
3:0
14%4:0
12%5:0
8%3:1
6%2:1
6%What influences the xG?
Spain
Cape Verde Islands
League
The Lab
- 1Spain with Aymeric Laporte: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 2Cape Verde Islands: first goal in 4 of 5 games (80%)
- 3Spain: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
90%
Draw
8%
Away Win
2%
Goals
Over 1.5
90%
Under 1.5
10%
Over 2.5
73%
Under 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
52%
Under 3.5
48%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
98%
Away or Draw
10%
No Draw
92%
Both Score
Yes
36%
No
64%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Spain with a 90% probability and 3.34 expected goals
- Spain's seasonal strength is evident with an average of 3.5 goals scored and only 0.33 goals conceded per game
- Cape Verde Islands show a positive form trend in goal-scoring, currently scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.7)
Risk Factors
- The limited head-to-head data prevents a historical analysis of previous encounters
- Spain's recent goal production has slowed, averaging 2.3 goals compared to their season average of 3.1
- Cape Verde Islands have a positive record on artificial turf with 1 win and 1 draw in 2 games (1:0 goals)
Overview
Spain (1st place, 0 points) faces Cape Verde Islands (2nd place, 0 points) at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. This World Cup match takes place on June 15, 2026, 5:00 PM. Both teams are starting their tournament campaign, vying for the first points in the group stage.
Form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Spain's form across all competitions is DWDDW
This includes 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses
The last result was a 3-1 away win against Peru
Cape Verde Islands show the form DLDWW in recent matches
This includes 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss
The last result was a 3-0 home win against Bermuda
Cape Verde Islands have achieved two consecutive wins recently, while Spain secured a win after a series of draws
Statistics
Spain has a strong offense this season, averaging 3.5 goals per game
Their defense is also very solid, conceding an average of 0.33 goals per game
Spain kept 5 clean sheets and saw over 2.5 goals in 5 out of 6 games
In home games, Spain scores an average of 4.0 goals and concedes 1.0 goal
Cape Verde Islands average 1.6 goals scored per game and concede 0.8 goals
Cape Verde Islands kept 7 clean sheets and saw over 2.5 goals in 4 out of 10 games
In away games, Cape Verde Islands average 1.67 goals scored and concede 1.33 goals
The Mercedes-Benz Stadium averages 3.2 total goals per match
In 4 out of 5 matches at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were seen in 4 out of 5 matches
Head-to-Head
No head-to-head data is available for Spain versus Cape Verde Islands
Key Players
For Spain, Ferran Torres (2 goals, 2 assists in 5 games), Pedri (1 goal, 1 assist in 3 games), and Mikel Oyarzabal (1 goal, 1 assist in 4 games) are key players
For Cape Verde Islands, Jovane Cabral stands out with 2 goals and 1 assist in 4 games
Other important players include Jamiro Monteiro (0 goals, 1 assist in 3 games) and Dailon Livramento (0 goals, 1 assist in 4 games)
Goalkeepers
Spain's goalkeeper, Unai SimĂłn, played 3 of the last 5 games
Spain has kept 5 clean sheets this season
Cape Verde Islands' goalkeeper, Vozinha, played 1 of the last 5 games
Cape Verde Islands have recorded 7 clean sheets this season
Influences
The match will be played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, a venue that averages 3.2 goals per game
In this stadium, both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 matches
The playing surface is artificial turf
There is no data for Spain's performance on artificial turf
Cape Verde Islands have a record of 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses on artificial turf with a 1:0 goal difference