World Cup
France - Senegal
06/16/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.1
0.9
1:1
15%0:0
14%1:0
13%0:1
10%2:0
8%What influences the xG?
France
Senegal
League
The Lab
- 1France: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 2France with Kylian Mbappé: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 3Senegal with Moussa Niakhaté: 1 goals/game. Without: 5.5 goals/game (4 of 6 games)
- 4France: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
40%
Draw
33%
Away Win
27%
Goals
Over 1.5
63%
Under 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
34%
Under 2.5
66%
Over 3.5
16%
Under 3.5
84%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
73%
Away or Draw
60%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 40% for France, making them slight favorites (1.16 predicted goals vs. 0.92)
- Senegal demonstrates impressive defensive stability with an average of 0.30 goals conceded per game and 8 clean sheets this season
- France's offense is very potent, averaging 2.67 goals per game this season, with Michael Olise and Ousmane Dembélé scoring 4 goals each in their last 5 appearances
Risk Factors
- There is no historical head-to-head data available for these two teams in the provided dataset
- The match will be played on artificial turf, which may influence gameplay
Overview
France (1st place, 0 points) faces Senegal (1st place, 0 points) at MetLife Stadium
World Cup match on June 16, 2026, 8:00 PM
Both teams are kicking off the group stage and aiming for a strong start
Form
France's form across all competitions: WWWLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
The French have 4 wins and 1 loss in their last five matches
Their last game ended in a win
Senegal's form across all competitions: WWWLD
The Senegalese recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five matches
Senegal's most recent match was a draw
Statistics
France averages 2.67 goals scored per game and concedes 0.67 goals per game this season
In home games, they have an impressive 3.00 goals scored per game and only 0.33 goals conceded
Senegal has a season average of 2.20 goals scored and 0.30 goals conceded
Away from home, these figures are 2.25 goals scored and 0.50 goals conceded per game
France has kept 3 clean sheets, while Senegal has managed 8 clean sheets this season
MetLife Stadium saw an average of 2.0 goals in the only match played there
Both teams scored in 1 of 1 games at the stadium
0 of 1 games at the stadium ended with over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
There are no historical head-to-head matches between France and Senegal listed in the dataset
Key Players
For France, Michael Olise is an attacking threat with 4 goals and 0 assists in 5 games, averaging a 7.82 rating
Ousmane Dembélé showed 4 goals and 1 assist in 4 games with a 7.45 rating
Désiré Doué contributed 0 goals and 2 assists in 4 games with a 7.29 rating
For Senegal, Sadio Mané stands out with 3 goals and 0 assists in 5 games, holding a 7.04 rating
Nicolas Jackson scored 1 goal and 0 assists in 5 games with a 6.79 rating
Pape Gueye achieved 1 goal and 0 assists in 4 games with a 6.82 rating
Goalkeepers
France's goalkeeper Mike Maignan achieved an average rating of 6.98 in 5 of the last 5 matches and has 3 clean sheets this season
Edouard Mendy of Senegal played 4 of the last 5 matches with a 6.84 rating and has 8 clean sheets this season
Influences
The match will be played on artificial turf at MetLife Stadium
France has a record of 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses (2:1 goals) on artificial turf
Senegal's record on artificial turf is 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss (3:3 goals)
MetLife Stadium has seen an average of 2.0 goals in 1 game, with both teams scoring and no Over 2.5 in that match