Match report →
France – Senegal3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
France
1.16
Total xG
2.08
Senegal
0.92
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | France | Senegal |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −1.46 | |
| Attack strength (2.47x league average) | +1.10 | |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.60 | |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.44 | |
| Rising form (3.8 vs 2.4 season average) | +0.42 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.40 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.38 | +0.38 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3 goals/match) | +0.19 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 2, 16 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 18, 16 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Attack strength (1.63x league average) | +0.04 |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 40% for France, making them slight favorites (1.16 predicted goals vs. 0.92)
- Senegal demonstrates impressive defensive stability with an average of 0.30 goals conceded per game and 8 clean sheets this season
- France's offense is very potent, averaging 2.67 goals per game this season, with Michael Olise and Ousmane Dembélé scoring 4 goals each in their last 5 appearances
Risks
- There is no historical head-to-head data available for these two teams in the provided dataset
- The match will be played on artificial turf, which may influence gameplay
All probabilities
Result
France40%
Draw33%
Senegal27%
Double chance
France or draw73%
Senegal or draw60%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.563%
Under 1.537%
Over 2.534%
Under 2.566%
Over 3.516%
Under 3.584%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
1:0
13%
0:1
10%
2:0
8%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- France: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- France with Kylian Mbappé: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Senegal with Moussa Niakhaté: 1 goals/game. Without: 5.5 goals/game (4 of 6 games)
- France: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
France 4-2-3-1 · Senegal 4-2-3-1
France
- 16 M. Maignan
- 5 J. Koundé
- 4 D. Upamecano
- 17 W. Saliba
- 19 T. Hernández
- 8 A. Tchouaméni
- 14 A. Rabiot
- 11 M. Olise
- 7 O. Dembélé
- 20 D. Doue
- 10 K. Mbappé
Senegal
- 16 E. Mendy
- 15 K. Diatta
- 3 K. Koulibaly
- 19 M. Niakhaté
- 25 E. Diouf
- 5 I. Gueye
- 26 P. Gueye
- 18 I. Sarr
- 8 L. Camara
- 10 S. Mané
- 11 N. Jackson
Substitutes
- 1 B. Samba
- 23 R. Risser
- 25 M. Akliouche
- 21 L. Hernández Pi
- 12 B. Barcola
- 18 W. Zaire Emery
- 3 L. Digne
- 26 M. Lacroix
- 22 J. Mateta
- 15 I. Konaté
- 24 M. Cherki
- 2 M. Gusto
- 9 M. Thuram
- 6 K. Kone
- 13 N. Kanté
- 23 M. Diaw
- 9 Bamba Dieng
- 20 I. Mbaye
- 1 Y. Diouf
- 24 A. Mendy
- 2 M. Sarr
- 21 M. Diarra
- 13 I. Ndiaye
- 17 P. Sarr
- 14 I. Jakobs
- 6 P. Ciss
- 12 P. Ndiaye
- 4 A. Seck
- 7 A. Diao Diaoune
- 22 B. Sapoko Ndiaye
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →