World Cup

England - Croatia

06/17/2026, 08:00 PM

4 : 2
Expected Goals
England
1.1
Total xG
2.3
Croatia
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

0:1

10%

1:0

10%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
ENGCRO

England

Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.96
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.35
Declining form (1.4 vs 2.6 season average)
-0.35
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.28
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Full strength squad available

Croatia

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.65
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.41
Declining form (1.6 vs 3 season average)
-0.41

League

High-scoring league (3 goals/match)
+0.55
+0.55
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Croatia with Marin Pongracic: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    England with Djed Spence: 1.6 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Croatia: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    England: first goal in 4 of 5 games (80%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

32%

Away Win

34%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

66%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a balanced match with 34% home win and 34% away win probability
  • England with a flawless defense (0.0 goals conceded season average) meets Croatia's strong offense (3.25 goals season average)
  • AT&T Stadium showed a high goal count in the only known match, with 4.0 goals and both teams scoring
Risk Factors
  • Limited data available regarding England's goal threat
  • Both teams show a "Negative" form trend in goal production according to advanced statistics
  • No specific data is available on the performance of either team on artificial turf
Overview

England (0 points) and Croatia (0 points) face off in the World Cup group stage at AT&T Stadium

The match takes place on June 17, 2026, 10:00 PM

Both teams are starting the tournament and aim for a successful kick-off

Form

England's form in their last five matches is WDLWW

This includes 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Croatia's form over the last five games is WWLLW

This represents 3 wins and 2 losses

According to advanced statistics, the recent form trend for both teams is classified as "Negative"

England's goal production has stalled recently (avg 1.4 goals) compared to their season average (avg 1.8 goals)

Croatia's goal production has also decreased (avg 1.6 goals recently) compared to their season average (avg 2.8 goals)

Statistics

England has shown strong offense this season with an average of 2.75 goals per game

England's defense is very solid with an average of 0 goals conceded per game and 8 clean sheets

Croatia also impresses in attack with an average of 3.25 goals per game

The Croatian defense conceded an average of 0.5 goals per game and kept 5 clean sheets

In home games, England scored an average of 3.0 goals and conceded 0.0 goals

Croatia scored an average of 3.67 goals and conceded 0.67 goals in away games

AT&T Stadium recorded 4.0 goals per game in the only known match

In this match, both teams scored, and there were over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 3 head-to-head matches between England and Croatia, England recorded 2 wins

Croatia won 1 match, with no draws

England scored a total of 10 goals in these games, while Croatia scored 4 goals

The last encounter on July 11, 2018, ended in a 2-1 victory for Croatia

Key Players

For England, Harry Kane (5 goals in last 5 games, avg rating 7.57), Jude Bellingham (2 goals in last 5 games, avg rating 7.34), and Elliot Anderson (1 goal, 2 assists in last 5 games, avg rating 7.46) are significant

Croatia's key players are Ivan Perišić (2 goals, 3 assists in last 5 games, avg rating 7.43), Petar Musa (2 goals, 1 assist in last 5 games, avg rating 6.74), and Luka Modrić (1 goal in last 5 games, avg rating 7.08)

Goalkeepers

England's goalkeeper Jordan Pickford kept 8 clean sheets this season

Dominik Livakovic of Croatia recorded 5 clean sheets this season

Influences

England has a strong home record with an average of 3.0 goals scored and 0.0 goals conceded

Croatia demonstrates offensive strength away from home with an average of 3.67 goals and a solid defense with 0.67 goals conceded

AT&T Stadium, a venue with artificial turf, showed 4.0 goals per game in the past

There are no specific data available on the performance of either team on artificial turf

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.