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England – Croatia4 : 2
Why the model thinks so
England
1.14
Total xG
2.29
Croatia
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | England | Croatia |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.96 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.65 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.55 | +0.55 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.41 | |
| Declining form (1.6 vs 3 season average) | −0.41 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.35 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 2.6 season average) | −0.35 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.28 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a balanced match with 34% home win and 34% away win probability
- England with a flawless defense (0.0 goals conceded season average) meets Croatia's strong offense (3.25 goals season average)
- AT&T Stadium showed a high goal count in the only known match, with 4.0 goals and both teams scoring
Risks
- Limited data available regarding England's goal threat
- Both teams show a "Negative" form trend in goal production according to advanced statistics
- No specific data is available on the performance of either team on artificial turf
All probabilities
Result
England34%
Draw32%
Croatia34%
Double chance
England or draw66%
Croatia or draw66%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
0:1
10%
1:0
10%
1:2
8%
4:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Croatia with Marin Pongracic: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- England with Djed Spence: 1.6 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Croatia: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- England: first goal in 4 of 5 games (80%)
Lineups
England 4-2-3-1 · Croatia 3-4-2-1
England
- 1 J. Pickford
- 24 R. James
- 2 E. Konsa Ngoyo
- 5 J. Stones
- 3 N. O'Reilly
- 8 E. Anderson
- 4 D. Rice
- 20 C. Madueke
- 10 J. Bellingham
- 18 A. Gordon
- 9 H. Kane
Croatia
- 1 D. Livaković
- 6 J. Šutalo
- 22 L. Vušković
- 4 J. Gvardiol
- 2 J. Stanisic
- 10 L. Modrić
- 15 M. Pašalić
- 14 I. Perišić
- 17 P. Sučić
- 16 M. Baturina
- 26 P. Musa
Substitutes
- 26 J. Quansah
- 11 M. Rashford
- 16 K. Mainoo
- 14 J. Henderson
- 17 M. Rogers
- 19 O. Watkins
- 6 M. Guehi
- 13 D. Henderson
- 21 E. Eze
- 7 B. Saka
- 15 D. Burn
- 23 J. Trafford
- 25 D. Spence
- 22 I. Toney
- 18 K. Jakić
- 9 A. Kramarić
- 20 I. Matanovic
- 5 D. Ćaleta-Car
- 21 L. Sučić
- 11 A. Budimir
- 12 I. Pandur
- 8 M. Kovačić
- 23 D. Kotarski
- 7 N. Moro
- 25 M. Erlić
- 19 T. Fruk
- 3 M. Pongracic
- 13 N. Vlašić
- 24 M. Pasalic
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