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Austria – Jordan3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Austria
2.03
Total xG
2.78
Jordan
0.75
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Austria | Jordan |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −3.06 | |
| Attack strength (1.39x league average) | +2.44 | |
| Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 2.5 league avg) | −1.80 | |
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.20 | +1.20 |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.53 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.30 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 22 vs 62, 40 places gap) | +0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 62 vs 22, 40 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match) | −0.09 |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Austria with 66% probability
- Austria's strong form (WDWWW) contrasts with Jordan's weak form (DDDLL)
- Austria shows strong home performance with an average of 2.8 goals scored and 0.4 goals conceded per game
Risks
- The data available for direct encounters between the two teams is limited
- Austria's current goal production of 2.0 goals is below their season average of 2.6 goals
- Jordan is in a negative form trend with two consecutive losses
All probabilities
Result
Austria66%
Draw22%
Jordan12%
Double chance
Austria or draw88%
Jordan or draw34%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
2:0
13%
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
9%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Jordan with Mousa Tamari: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Austria with Alexander Prass: 0.4 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Jordan: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Austria 4-2-3-1 · Jordan 3-4-2-1
Austria
- 1 A. Schlager
- 5 S. Posch
- 15 P. Lienhart
- 8 D. Olatukunbo Alaba
- 16 P. Mwene
- 6 N. Seiwald
- 4 X. Schlager
- 18 R. Schmid
- 20 K. Laimer
- 9 M. Sabitzer
- 14 S. Kalajdzic
Jordan
- 1 Y. Abu laila
- 3 A. Musallam Naseeb
- 5 Y. Alarab
- 16 M. Abualnadi
- 23 E. Haddad
- 21 N. Al-Rashdan
- 8 N. Al Rawabdeh
- 20 M. Abu Taha
- 11 O. Shehade Fakhoury
- 9 A. Olwan
- 10 M. Al Tamari
Substitutes
- 21 P. Wimmer
- 23 M. Friedl
- 22 A. Prass
- 17 C. Chukwuemeka
- 2 D. Affengruber
- 3 K. Danso
- 24 P. Wanner
- 12 F. Wiegele
- 7 M. Arnautović
- 11 M. Gregoritsch
- 10 F. Grillitsch
- 19 D. Ljubicic
- 26 A. Schöpf
- 13 P. Pentz
- 25 M. Svoboda
- 24 A. Azaizeh
- 12 N. Khaleel Bani Ateyah
- 19 S. Salameh Al Rosan
- 4 H. Abudahab
- 6 Amer Jamous
- 13 M. Al Mardi
- 17 S. Obaid
- 15 I. Sami
- 7 M. Abu Zrayq
- 22 A. Alfakhori
- 25 M. Mohammad Al Daoud
- 14 R. Hasan
- 2 M. Hasan Abu Hasheesh
- 18 S. Taha
- 26 Anas Badawi
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