La Liga
Real Oviedo - Athletic Club
02/15/2026, 01:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.7
1.7
1:1
13%1:2
10%0:2
9%2:1
6%1:3
5%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
22%
Draw
27%
Away Win
51%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
52%
Under 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
30%
Under 3.5
70%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
49%
Away or Draw
78%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
55%
No
45%
Key Factors
- Attacking mismatch: Athletic Club's improved offense (2.0 goals average recently) meets one of the league's weakest attacks (Oviedo at 0.55 goals per game)
- Form advantage for the visitors: Athletic Club has won their last two games, scoring 6 goals, while Oviedo only recently ended a long winless streak
- Historical dominance: Athletic Club has won all three previous encounters without conceding a single goal
Risk Factors
- Defensive vulnerability away from home: Athletic Club concedes an average of 2.11 goals per away game, making them defensively very vulnerable on the road
- Weakened offense: With Nico Williams missing, only 68% of Athletic Club's seasonal goal threat is available
Overview
Real Oviedo, in 20th place with 16 points, hosts Athletic Club, who are 11th with 28 points
The La Liga match will take place on February 15, 2026, at 2:00 PM at the Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere
It's a crucial match for the relegation-threatened home team, while the visitors aim to solidify their mid-table position
The mathematical analysis favors the visitors with a 51% chance of winning
Form
Real Oviedo form (all competitions): DDLLW (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)
Athletic Club form (all competitions): LLDWW (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)
Athletic Club is on a clear upward trend with two consecutive wins
Real Oviedo ended a winless streak with their last victory
According to advanced stats, both teams have recently increased their goal output, with Athletic Club rising from 1.3 to 2.0 goals per game and Real Oviedo from 0.7 to 1.0
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
With just 0.55 goals per game, Real Oviedo has one of the weakest offenses in the league, failing to score in 14 of 22 matches
Athletic Club averages 1.09 goals per game but is very vulnerable away, conceding an average of 2.11 goals
Real Oviedo's home games at the Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere have recently been extremely low-scoring
An average of only 0.6 goals were scored in the last five matches there, and both teams scored in only one of them
Head-to-Head
In the 3 previous head-to-head encounters, Athletic Club has won all matches
The goal difference is clearly in favor of Athletic Club at 3:0
Real Oviedo is still waiting for a point or a goal against the visitors
The last meeting on November 9, 2025, ended in a 1:0 victory for Athletic Club
Key Players
For Real Oviedo, Federico Viñas and Ilyas Chaira are the most in-form players, both having scored twice in their last five games
At Athletic Club, Gorka Guruzeta is in outstanding form with 4 goals in his last 5 appearances
He is supported by Iñaki Williams and Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta, who have also been involved in goals recently
Goalkeepers
Real Oviedo's goalkeeper Aarón Escandell has kept 6 clean sheets this season
Unai Simón in goal for Athletic Club has 5 clean sheets
Both goalkeepers have statistically similar records
Influences
The home advantage for Real Oviedo is statistically insignificant, with only 0.57 goals scored per home game
The Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere has recently proven to be an extremely low-scoring venue
In the last five matches there, an average of only 0.6 goals were scored, and none of these games saw more than 2.5 goals