World Cup

Saudi Arabia - Uruguay

06/15/2026, 10:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Saudi Arabia
0.9
Total xG
2.1
Uruguay
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

0:1

13%

1:0

10%

0:2

8%
What influences the xG?
SAURU

Saudi Arabia

Attack weakness (0.47x league average)
-0.36
Standings disadvantage (pos 59 vs 15, 44 places gap)
-0.16
Declining form (0.7 vs 1.2 season average)
-0.16
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.06
Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.01
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.00

Uruguay

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-1.38
Defensive weakness (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.29
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.11
Standings advantage (pos 15 vs 59, 44 places gap)
+0.08
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.36
+0.36
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Uruguay with Emiliano MartĂ­nez: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Saudi Arabia with Firas Al-Buraikan: 0.3 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Saudi Arabia: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Uruguay: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

27%

Draw

33%

Away Win

40%

Goals

Over 1.5

63%

Under 1.5

37%

Over 2.5

34%

Under 2.5

66%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

61%

Away or Draw

73%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: Uruguay is favored with a 39% win probability, while Saudi Arabia stands at 27%
  • Saudi Arabia's Form Decline: Saudi Arabia shows a negative form trend in goals scored and conceded; their average goals conceded recently rose to 2.67 per game compared to a season average of 0.72
  • Uruguay's Defensive Issues: Despite being favored, Uruguay conceded an average of 1.6 goals per away game and recently an average of 2.33 goals, indicating a potential vulnerability
Risk Factors
  • Uruguay will be without G. De Arrascaeta Benedetti (Broken Collarbone) and R. AraĂșjo da Silva (Muscle Injury)
  • Both teams recently recorded few shots on target (Saudi Arabia Ø 2.8, Uruguay Ø 2.0), indicating potentially few scoring opportunities
Overview

Saudi Arabia hosts Uruguay at Hard Rock Stadium. This is a World Cup group stage match on June 15, 2026, 11:00 PM. Both teams begin the tournament with 0 points.

Form

Saudi Arabia's recent form is LLLWD (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses) from their last five matches. Their last game was a 0-0 draw against Senegal. Prior to that, they secured a 3-0 win against Puerto Rico and suffered three defeats. Uruguay comes into this match with a form of WDLDD (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss). Uruguay recorded two consecutive draws in their last outings, 0-0 against Algeria and 1-1 against England.

Statistics

Saudi Arabia has scored an average of 1.22 goals per game this season and conceded 0.72 goals per game. The team achieved 10 clean sheets. Uruguay also scored an average of 1.22 goals per game but conceded fewer, with 0.67 goals per game. Uruguay also registered 10 clean sheets. In home games, Saudi Arabia scored an average of 1.29 goals and conceded 1.0 goals. Uruguay scored an average of 1.2 goals and conceded 1.6 goals in away matches.

Head-to-Head

There has been only one previous head-to-head encounter between Saudi Arabia and Uruguay. Uruguay won this match 1-0 on June 20, 2018. Uruguay was the dominant team in this sole historical fixture.

Key Players

For Saudi Arabia, key players include Salem Al-Dawsari (Attacker) with 2 goals and an average rating of 7.22 in the last 5 games, Musab Al-Juwayr (Midfielder) with 1 goal and a rating of 7.24, and Mohammed Abu Al-Shamat (Defender) with 1 goal and a rating of 6.93. For Uruguay, Maxi AraĂșjo (Defender) stands out with 1 goal and 1 assist (7.00 rating), Federico Valverde (Midfielder) with 1 assist (7.10 rating), and Darwin NĂșñez (Attacker) with 1 assist (6.85 rating).

Goalkeepers

Mohammed Al-Owais is the goalkeeper for Saudi Arabia. The team has kept 10 clean sheets this season. Fernando Muslera is the goalkeeper for Uruguay, who also managed 10 clean sheets.

Influences

The match will be played on grass at Hard Rock Stadium. Saudi Arabia has scored an average of 1.29 goals and conceded 1.0 goals in home games. Uruguay has scored an average of 1.2 goals and conceded 1.6 goals in away matches.

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