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Saudi Arabia – Uruguay1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Saudi Arabia
0.91
Total xG
2.06
Uruguay
1.15
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Saudi Arabia | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −1.38 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.36 | +0.36 |
| Attack weakness (0.47x league average) | −0.36 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.29 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 59 vs 15, 44 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| Declining form (0.7 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.16 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 15 vs 59, 44 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.01 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.00 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Pipeline Prediction: Uruguay is favored with a 39% win probability, while Saudi Arabia stands at 27%
- Saudi Arabia's Form Decline: Saudi Arabia shows a negative form trend in goals scored and conceded; their average goals conceded recently rose to 2.67 per game compared to a season average of 0.72
- Uruguay's Defensive Issues: Despite being favored, Uruguay conceded an average of 1.6 goals per away game and recently an average of 2.33 goals, indicating a potential vulnerability
Risks
- Uruguay will be without G. De Arrascaeta Benedetti (Broken Collarbone) and R. Araújo da Silva (Muscle Injury)
- Both teams recently recorded few shots on target (Saudi Arabia Ø 2.8, Uruguay Ø 2.0), indicating potentially few scoring opportunities
All probabilities
Result
Saudi Arabia27%
Draw33%
Uruguay40%
Double chance
Saudi Arabia or draw61%
Uruguay or draw73%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.563%
Under 1.537%
Over 2.534%
Under 2.566%
Over 3.515%
Under 3.585%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
0:1
13%
1:0
10%
0:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Uruguay with Emiliano Martínez: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Saudi Arabia with Firas Al-Buraikan: 0.3 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Saudi Arabia: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Uruguay: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Saudi Arabia 4-4-2 · Uruguay 4-2-3-1
Saudi Arabia
- 21 M. Al Owais
- 12 S. Abdul Hamid
- 4 A. Al Amri
- 5 H. Al Tambakti
- 24 Moteb Al-Harbi
- 26 M. Al Shamat
- 23 M. Kanno
- 15 A. Alkhaibari
- 10 S. Al Dawsari
- 9 F. Albirakan
- 7 M. Aljuwayr
Uruguay
- 23 N. Muslera Micol
- 13 G. Varela Olivera
- 3 S. Cáceres Ramos
- 16 M. Olivera Miramontes
- 17 M. Viña Susperreguy
- 5 M. Ugarte Ribeiro
- 6 R. Bentancur Colmán
- 8 F. Valverde Dipetta
- 21 F. Viñas Barboza
- 20 M. Araújo Vilches
- 9 D. Núñez Ribeiro
Substitutes
- 6 N. Al Dawsari
- 3 A. Lajami
- 19 A. Al Hamdan
- 11 S. Al Shehri
- 2 A. Majrashi
- 16 Z. Aljohani
- 17 K. Al Ghannam
- 20 S. Madash
- 1 N. Alaqidi
- 13 N. Boushal
- 8 A. Yahya
- 25 J. Abdullatif Ahm
- 14 H. Kadesh
- 18 A. Hejji
- 22 A. Al Kassar
- 2 J. Giménez de Vargas
- 24 S. Bueno Sciutto
- 11 F. Pellistri Rebollo
- 26 R. Zalazar Martínez
- 25 J. Sanabria Magole
- 19 R. Aguirre Soto
- 22 J. Piquerez Moreira
- 1 S. Rochet Álvarez
- 7 D. De La Cruz Arcosa
- 12 S. Mele Castanero
- 15 E. Martínez Toranza
- 18 P. Rodríguez Bravo
- 14 A. Canobbio Graviz
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