World Cup
Argentina - Algeria
06/17/2026, 01:00 AM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.2
1.0
1:1
15%0:0
13%1:0
12%0:1
9%2:0
8%What influences the xG?
Argentina
Algeria
League
The Lab
- 1Argentina: first goal in 6 of 6 games (100%)
- 2Algeria with Ibrahim Maza: 2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- 3Argentina with Nico Paz: 2.5 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- 4Argentina: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
40%
Draw
32%
Away Win
27%
Goals
Over 1.5
66%
Under 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
38%
Under 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
18%
Under 3.5
82%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
73%
Away or Draw
60%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
46%
No
54%
Key Factors
- Mathematical analysis: The home win probability for Argentina is 40%, with 1.23 expected goals compared to 0.98 for Algeria
- Current top form: Argentina won all of their last 5 games, scoring an average of 3.6 goals
- Player impact: Lionel Messi proved to be a decisive player in the last 4 games with 5 goals and 4 assists
Risk Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a high draw probability of 32%
- Algeria showed defensive stability in recent form, conceding an average of 0 goals per game
- Algeria's offense is highly effective in recent form, averaging 3.3 goals per game
Overview
Argentina hosts Algeria at Arrowhead Stadium for a World Cup group stage match on June 17, 2026, 3:00 AM. Argentina started the tournament with a 3-0 win and 3 points, while Algeria began with a 0-3 loss and 0 points.
Form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Argentina has shown perfect form in their last five matches with five wins (WWWWW). They recently defeated Iceland 3-0. Algeria is also in excellent shape, recording four wins and one draw in their last five games (WWDWW). Their last match was a 4-0 victory against Bolivia. Argentina is on a five-game winning streak.
Statistics
Argentina has scored an average of 1.72 goals per game this season and conceded 0.56 goals. At home, they average 1.67 goals scored and only 0.33 goals conceded. They kept 11 clean sheets, 6 of which were at home. Algeria showed strong offense with an average of 2.4 goals scored and 0.8 goals conceded per game. Away, they averaged 2.5 goals scored and conceded only 0.5 goals. Algeria kept 3 clean sheets, all of them away. Argentina's matches saw over 2.5 goals 7 times and both teams scoring 5 times. Algeria's matches had over 2.5 goals 8 times and both teams scoring 7 times.
Head-to-Head
The provided dataset does not list any previous head-to-head encounters between Argentina and Algeria.
Key Players
For Argentina, Lionel Messi is a key player with 5 goals and 4 assists in 4 games (8.57 Avg Rating). Lautaro MartĂnez contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in 5 matches (6.89 Avg Rating). Rodrigo De Paul registered 1 goal and 2 assists in 5 games (7.57 Avg Rating). For Algeria, Anis Hadj Moussa stands out with 4 goals in 4 games (7.63 Avg Rating). Amine Gouiri scored 3 goals in 4 matches (6.97 Avg Rating). Ramy Bensebaini was involved in 1 goal and 2 assists in 4 games (7.33 Avg Rating).
Goalkeepers
Emiliano MartĂnez is the goalkeeper for Argentina, whose team achieved 11 clean sheets this season. Luca Zidane is in goal for Algeria, whose team recorded 3 clean sheets.
Influences
The match will be played on grass at Arrowhead Stadium. Argentina showed strength at home with an average of 1.67 goals scored and only 0.33 goals conceded. Algeria also proved offensively effective away, with 2.5 goals scored and 0.5 goals conceded on average.