World Cup

Argentina - Algeria

06/17/2026, 01:00 AM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Argentina
1.2
Total xG
2.1
Algeria
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

12%

0:1

9%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
ARGALG

Argentina

Attack strength (2.38x league average)
-1.27
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.90
Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.88
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match)
+0.65
Rising form (3.6 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.65
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 38, 35 places gap)
+0.08

Algeria

Attack strength (2.11x league average)
-1.03
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.67
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.51
Rising form (3.3 vs 2.6 season average)
+0.21
Standings disadvantage (pos 38 vs 3, 35 places gap)
-0.17
5 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.05

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.44
+0.44
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Argentina: first goal in 6 of 6 games (100%)

  • 2
    Algeria with Ibrahim Maza: 2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 3
    Argentina with Nico Paz: 2.5 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Argentina: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

33%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

36%

Under 2.5

64%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 40% for Argentina.
  • Argentina is in outstanding form with five consecutive wins (WWWWW).
  • According to Advanced Stats, both teams show a positive offensive trend, with currently higher goal averages than their season average.
Risk Factors
  • The pipeline analysis predicts a high draw probability of 33%.
  • Algeria shows a strong away defense, conceding only 0.5 goals per away game.
  • Algeria's offense is potent with an average of 2.4 season goals per game.
Overview

Argentina host Algeria at Arrowhead Stadium for their opening World Cup group stage match. The game is scheduled for June 17, 2026, 3:00 AM. Both teams are kicking off their tournament, and current table positions are not performance-based.

Form

Argentina displays flawless form, securing five wins (WWWWW) in their last five matches. Their most recent result was a 3-0 victory. Algeria is also in strong form with four wins and one draw (WWDWW) from their last five outings. The home team's streak stands at five consecutive wins. The visitors have not lost in their last two games.

Statistics

Argentina averages 1.72 goals scored and 0.56 goals conceded per game this season. At home, they average 1.67 goals scored and only 0.33 goals conceded. The team achieved 11 clean sheets, with 6 of those at home. Algeria has scored an average of 2.4 goals and conceded 0.8 goals per game. Away from home, their scoring average is 2.5 goals and they concede 0.5 goals per match. Algeria kept 3 clean sheets, all of them away.

Head-to-Head

The provided dataset does not list any previous head-to-head meetings between Argentina and Algeria.

Key Players

For Argentina, Lionel Messi stands out with 5 goals and 4 assists in 4 appearances. Lautaro MartĂ­nez contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in 5 matches. Rodrigo De Paul recorded 1 goal and 2 assists in 5 games. On Algeria's side, Anis Hadj Moussa scored 4 goals in 4 games. Amine Gouiri netted 3 goals in 4 matches. Ramy Bensebaini was involved in 1 goal and 2 assists in 4 appearances.

Goalkeepers

Emiliano MartĂ­nez is the goalkeeper for Argentina, whose team achieved 11 clean sheets this season. For Algeria, Luca Zidane is in goal, with his team recording 3 clean sheets.

Influences

The match will be played at Arrowhead Stadium on a grass surface. There is no data available regarding weather influences or specific stadium history.

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