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Argentina – Algeria3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Argentina
1.23
Total xG
2.21
Algeria
0.98
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Argentina | Algeria |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (2.29x league average) | −1.33 | |
| Attack strength (2.03x league average) | −1.11 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.95 | |
| Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.93 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.73 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match) | +0.64 | |
| Rising form (3.6 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.64 | |
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.56 | +0.56 |
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.56 | |
| Rising form (3.3 vs 2.7 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 38 vs 3, 35 places gap) | −0.17 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 5 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 38, 35 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.04 |
Key factors
- Mathematical analysis: The home win probability for Argentina is 40%, with 1.23 expected goals compared to 0.98 for Algeria
- Current top form: Argentina won all of their last 5 games, scoring an average of 3.6 goals
- Player impact: Lionel Messi proved to be a decisive player in the last 4 games with 5 goals and 4 assists
Risks
- The mathematical analysis predicts a high draw probability of 32%
- Algeria showed defensive stability in recent form, conceding an average of 0 goals per game
- Algeria's offense is highly effective in recent form, averaging 3.3 goals per game
All probabilities
Result
Argentina40%
Draw32%
Algeria27%
Double chance
Argentina or draw73%
Algeria or draw60%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.566%
Under 1.534%
Over 2.538%
Under 2.562%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
1:0
12%
0:1
9%
2:0
8%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Argentina: first goal in 6 of 6 games (100%)
- Algeria with Ibrahim Maza: 2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Argentina with Nico Paz: 2.5 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Argentina: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Argentina 4-4-2 · Algeria 4-3-3
Argentina
- 23 D. Martínez
- 4 G. Montiel
- 13 C. Romero
- 6 L. Martínez
- 25 F. Medina
- 7 R. de Paul
- 20 A. Mac Allister
- 24 E. Fernández
- 16 T. Almada
- 10 L. Messi
- 22 L. Martínez
Algeria
- 23 L. Zidane
- 17 R. Belghali
- 2 A. Mandi
- 21 R. Bensebaini
- 15 R. Aït Nouri
- 14 H. Boudaoui
- 19 N. Bentaleb
- 22 I. Maza
- 11 A. Hadj Moussa
- 9 A. Gouiri
- 10 F. Chaïbi
Substitutes
- 14 E. Palacios
- 17 G. Simeone
- 1 J. Musso
- 15 N. González
- 26 N. Molina Lucero
- 9 J. Álvarez
- 12 G. Rulli
- 11 G. Lo Celso
- 3 N. Alejandro Tagliafico
- 8 V. Barco
- 2 M. Senesi
- 19 N. Otamendi
- 18 N. Paz Martínez
- 21 J. López
- 5 L. Paredes
- 18 M. Amoura
- 13 J. Hadjam
- 26 S. Chergui
- 24 Y. Titraoui
- 12 A. Benbouali
- 25 F. Ghedjemis
- 6 R. Zerrouki
- 8 H. Aouar
- 7 R. Mahrez
- 20 A. Boulebina
- 1 M. Mastil
- 3 A. Abada
- 5 Z. Belaïd
- 16 O. Benbot
- 4 M. Tougai
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