World Cup

Belgium - Egypt

06/15/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Belgium
1.2
Total xG
2.1
Egypt
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

14%

1:0

13%

0:1

10%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
BELEGY

Belgium

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.54
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-0.47
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (4 goals/match)
+0.31
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Attack strength (2.22x league average)
+0.11
Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 35, 27 places gap)
+0.08
Full strength squad available

Egypt

Attack strength (1.33x league average)
-0.73
Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.63
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.37
Standings disadvantage (pos 35 vs 8, 27 places gap)
-0.16
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.01

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.42
+0.42
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Belgium with Axel Witsel: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Egypt with Emam Ashour: 1.6 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

40%

Draw

33%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

64%

Under 1.5

36%

Over 2.5

35%

Under 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

16%

Under 3.5

84%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

60%

No Draw

67%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a home win for Belgium with a 40% probability and 1.18 expected goals
  • Belgium's Offensive Power: Belgium averages 3.63 goals per game this season and 4.0 goals in recent matches
  • Tactical Approach: Belgium's possession-dominant play (58% possession) meets Egypt's counter-oriented tactics (39% possession)
Risk Factors
  • Injury Absence: Belgium's Z. Debast is out due to a Leg Injury
  • Unknown Surface: Egypt has no data for matches played on artificial turf, which could be an unknown factor
  • High Draw Probability: The mathematical model predicts a draw with a 33% probability, indicating a tight match
Overview

Belgium faces Egypt at Lumen Field in a World Cup match on June 15, 2026, 7:00 PM. Both teams are kicking off their tournament campaigns and aiming for a strong start in their group. Belgium and Egypt hold 1st and 2nd place in the table, respectively, with 0 points each before this fixture.

Form

Belgium is in good form with a W-W-D-W-W record in their last five games, amounting to 4 wins and 1 draw. Their last match was a 5-0 victory against Tunisia. Egypt's recent form is W-W-D-W-L, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five outings. They recently suffered a 1-2 defeat to Brazil. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Statistics

Belgium has shown strong attacking capabilities this season, averaging 3.63 goals scored per game and conceding 0.88 goals. At home, they average 3.4 goals scored and 0.6 goals conceded. They kept 4 clean sheets. Egypt boasts a very strong defense, conceding only 0.2 goals per game on average, while scoring 2.0 goals per match. Away from home, they concede an average of 0.25 goals and score 2.0 goals. They achieved 8 clean sheets. Lumen Field sees an average of 3.4 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 4 of 5 matches and over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5 matches.

Head-to-Head

There are no previous head-to-head meetings between Belgium and Egypt in the provided dataset.

Key Players

For Belgium, Youri Tielemans is in good form with 2 goals and 1 assist in 375 minutes over 5 games, Jérémy Doku contributed 2 assists in 340 minutes over 5 games, and Kevin De Bruyne scored 1 goal and 1 assist in 262 minutes over 4 games. For Egypt, Mostafa Mohamed Zaki Abdelraouf stands out with 4 goals in 319 minutes over 5 games. Emam Ashour provided 2 assists in 324 minutes over 5 games. Goalkeeper Oufa Shobeir achieved an average rating of 7.20 in 5 games.

Goalkeepers

Belgium's goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois has kept 3 clean sheets in home games. Egypt's goalkeeper Oufa Shobeir has kept 4 clean sheets in away games.

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf. Belgium's record on artificial turf is 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses with a 6:3 goal difference. No data is available for Egypt's performance on artificial turf. Lumen Field typically sees an average of 3.4 total goals per game, with both teams scoring in 4 out of 5 matches and over 2.5 goals in 3 out of 5 matches.

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