Match report →
Belgium – Egypt1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Belgium
1.18
Total xG
2.11
Egypt
0.93
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Belgium | Egypt |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.33x league average) | −0.73 | |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.63 | |
| Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.54 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −0.47 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.42 | +0.42 |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.37 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (4 goals/match) | +0.31 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 35 vs 8, 27 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.11 | |
| Attack strength (2.22x league average) | +0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 35, 27 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates a home win for Belgium with a 40% probability and 1.18 expected goals
- Belgium's Offensive Power: Belgium averages 3.63 goals per game this season and 4.0 goals in recent matches
- Tactical Approach: Belgium's possession-dominant play (58% possession) meets Egypt's counter-oriented tactics (39% possession)
Risks
- Injury Absence: Belgium's Z. Debast is out due to a Leg Injury
- Unknown Surface: Egypt has no data for matches played on artificial turf, which could be an unknown factor
- High Draw Probability: The mathematical model predicts a draw with a 33% probability, indicating a tight match
All probabilities
Result
Belgium40%
Draw33%
Egypt27%
Double chance
Belgium or draw73%
Egypt or draw60%
No draw67%
Goals
Over 1.564%
Under 1.536%
Over 2.535%
Under 2.565%
Over 3.516%
Under 3.584%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
14%
1:0
13%
0:1
10%
2:0
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Belgium with Axel Witsel: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Egypt with Emam Ashour: 1.6 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
Lineups
Belgium 4-2-3-1 · Egypt 4-2-3-1
Belgium
- 1 T. Courtois
- 15 T. Meunier
- 25 N. Ngoy
- 4 B. Mechele
- 21 T. Castagne
- 24 A. Mvom Onana
- 8 Y. Tielemans
- 10 L. Trossard
- 7 K. De Bruyne
- 11 J. Doku
- 17 C. De Ketelaere
Egypt
- 23 M. Shobeir
- 3 M. Hany Eldemerdash
- 2 Y. Ibrahim El Hanafi
- 14 H. Fathi
- 13 A. Aboel Fettoh
- 19 M. Attia
- 17 M. Lasheen
- 11 M. Zaki Abdelraouf
- 10 M. Salah
- 8 E. Ashour
- 22 O. Marmoush
Substitutes
- 5 M. De Cuyper
- 3 A. Theate
- 6 A. Witsel
- 26 M. Fernandez Pardo
- 19 D. da Silva Moreira
- 13 M. Penders
- 12 S. Lammens
- 14 D. Lukebakio
- 18 J. Seys
- 20 H. Vanaken
- 9 R. Lukaku Menama
- 23 N. Raskin
- 22 A. Saelemaekers
- 16 K. De Winter
- 12 H. Hassan
- 6 M. Abdelmonem
- 20 I. Adel
- 18 N. Emad
- 16 A. Soliman
- 26 M. Alaa
- 21 M. Saber
- 4 H. Abdelmaguid
- 1 M. El Shenawy
- 5 R. Rabia
- 25 A. Sayed
- 7 M. Hassan
- 24 T. Alaa
- 15 K. Ramadan Seif El Din
- 9 H. Abdel Karim
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