Match report →
Ghana – Panama1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Ghana
1.23
Total xG
2.28
Panama
1.05
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Ghana | Panama |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −1.18 | |
| Attack weakness (0.38x league average) | −0.99 | |
| Attack strength (1.2x league average) | +0.85 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.73 | +0.73 |
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.63 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.61 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.51 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.33 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.33 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 75 vs 29, 46 places gap) | −0.22 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 29 vs 75, 46 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Panama's positive form with 2 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 games
- Ghana's negative form with 4 losses and 1 draw in their last 5 games
- Panama's recent goal production of 2.0 goals is above their season average of 1.5 goals
Risks
- Ghana: T. Partey is sidelined due to an unknown injury
- Ghana averaged 2.2 shots on target with 38% possession in their last 5 games, indicating few attempts
All probabilities
Result
Ghana38%
Draw32%
Panama30%
Double chance
Ghana or draw70%
Panama or draw62%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
1:0
11%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Panama: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Panama: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)
- Panama with Carlos Harvey: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (4 of 6 games)
- Ghana: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Panama: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Ghana 4-4-1-1 · Panama 3-4-3
Ghana
- 1 L. Ati-Zigi
- 26 M. Senaya
- 4 J. Adjei Adjetey
- 18 J. Opoku
- 14 G. Mensah
- 24 E. Appiah Nuamah
- 3 C. Yirenkyi
- 15 E. Owusu
- 11 A. Semenyo
- 22 K. Sulemana
- 9 J. Ayew
Panama
- 22 O. Mosquera
- 13 J. Ramos Díaz
- 3 J. Cordoba Chambers
- 16 A. Andrade Cedeño
- 23 M. Murillo Bermudez
- 14 C. Harvey Cesneros
- 11 E. Bárcenas Herrera
- 2 C. Blackman
- 6 C. Martinez
- 18 C. Waterman Ruiz
- 7 J. Rodríguez Francis
Substitutes
- 2 A. Seidu
- 8 K. Sibo
- 19 I. Williams Arthuer
- 21 K. Peprah Oppong
- 7 A. Issahaku
- 10 B. Thomas-Asante
- 23 D. Luckassen
- 25 P. Adu
- 17 A. Baba
- 6 A. Mumin
- 12 J. Anang
- 13 C. Baah
- 16 B. Asare
- 20 A. Boakye
- 26 J. Gutiérrez Cornejo
- 20 A. Godoy
- 24 A. Londoño
- 15 E. Davis Grajales
- 21 C. Yanis Velasco
- 19 A. Quintero Medina
- 17 J. Fajardo Nelson
- 9 T. Rodríguez Mena
- 10 I. Díaz De León
- 12 C. Samudio Murillo
- 4 F. Escobar Mendieta
- 5 E. Fariña
- 1 L. Mejía Cajar
- 8 A. Carrasquilla Alcázar
- 25 R. Miller Molina
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →