World Cup

Iran - New Zealand

06/16/2026, 01:00 AM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Iran
1.5
Total xG
2.3
New Zealand
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

14%

0:0

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
IRANZ

Iran

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
-2.48
Attack strength (1.94x league average)
+2.02
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.78
Rising form (2.8 vs 2.2 season average)
+0.17
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 21 vs 83, 62 places gap)
+0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.00
Full strength squad available

New Zealand

Attack weakness (0.55x league average)
-0.90
Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.59
Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.35
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.28
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.28
Standings disadvantage (pos 83 vs 21, 62 places gap)
-0.14
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match)
+0.59
+0.59
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    New Zealand with Sarpreet Singh: 0.6 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (5 of 7 games)

  • 2
    Iran with Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 2.7 goals/game (4 of 7 games)

  • 3
    Iran: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    Iran: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

30%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

48%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis sees Iran as favorites with 52%
  • Form Trend and Goal Threat: Iran shows a positive recent form trend with 2.8 goals per game recently, while New Zealand's goal production has dropped to 0.8 goals
  • Critical Data Situation: For both teams, only 0% of active goal production is available according to squad impact data
Risk Factors
  • Iran averaged 2.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating few attempts on goal
  • New Zealand averaged 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview

Iran (3rd place, 0 points) host New Zealand (4th place, 0 points) at SoFi Stadium. World Cup match on June 16, 2026, 3:00 AM. Both teams kick off their group stage campaign aiming for a crucial opening victory

Form

Iran's current form across all competitions is WDLWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The team recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss recently

New Zealand's form is LLWLL

The team achieved 1 win, 0 draws, and 4 losses in their last five matches

Statistics

Iran scored an average of 2.19 goals per game this season and conceded 0.75 goals

The team kept 9 clean sheets and both teams scored in 6 matches

New Zealand scored an average of 5.80 goals per game and conceded 0.20 goals

The team kept 4 clean sheets and both teams scored in 1 match

Matches at SoFi Stadium have averaged 5.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 1 of 1 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 1 of 1 games

Key Players

Iran's offense is led by Mehdi Taremi, who contributed 4 goals and 1 assist in 4 of his last 5 games

Mohammad Mohebi scored 2 goals and 1 assist in 4 games

Arya Yousefi contributed 1 goal in 2 games

For New Zealand, Joe Bell is an important player, contributing 1 assist in 4 of his last 5 games

Tim Payne provided 1 assist in 4 games

Sarpreet Singh recorded 1 assist in 4 games

Goalkeepers

Iran's goalkeeper Alireza Beiranvand was involved in 6 clean sheets in home games

New Zealand's goalkeeper Max Crocombe was involved in 2 clean sheets in away games

Influences

The match takes place at SoFi Stadium on artificial turf

The venue history shows an average of 5.0 goals per game, with both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals in 1 of 1 matches

There are no specific data on the teams' performance on artificial turf

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.