Match report →
Iran – New Zealand2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Iran
1.48
Total xG
2.28
New Zealand
0.80
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Iran | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | −2.48 | |
| Attack strength (1.94x league average) | +2.02 | |
| Attack weakness (0.55x league average) | −0.90 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.78 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.59 | |
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.59 | +0.59 |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.35 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.28 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.28 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 83 vs 21, 62 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 21 vs 83, 62 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.00 | |
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis sees Iran as favorites with 52%
- Form Trend and Goal Threat: Iran shows a positive recent form trend with 2.8 goals per game recently, while New Zealand's goal production has dropped to 0.8 goals
- Critical Data Situation: For both teams, only 0% of active goal production is available according to squad impact data
Risks
- Iran averaged 2.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating few attempts on goal
- New Zealand averaged 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Iran52%
Draw30%
New Zealand19%
Double chance
Iran or draw81%
New Zealand or draw48%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.568%
Under 1.532%
Over 2.540%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
14%
0:0
12%
2:0
11%
2:1
9%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- New Zealand with Sarpreet Singh: 0.6 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (5 of 7 games)
- Iran with Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 2.7 goals/game (4 of 7 games)
- Iran: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Iran: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Iran 4-4-2 · New Zealand 4-2-3-1
Iran
- 1 A. Safar Beiranvand
- 23 R. Rezaeian
- 4 S. Khalilzadeh
- 19 A. Nemati
- 5 M. Mohammadi
- 8 M. Mohebi
- 14 S. Ghoddos
- 6 S. Ezatolahi Afagh
- 17 A. Yousefi
- 20 S. Moghanlou
- 9 M. Taremi
New Zealand
- 1 M. Crocombe
- 2 T. Payne
- 16 F. Surman
- 5 M. Boxall
- 13 L. Cacace
- 6 J. Bell
- 8 M. Stamenic
- 20 C. McCowatt
- 10 S. Singh
- 11 E. Just
- 9 C. Wood
Substitutes
- 10 M. Ghaedi
- 16 M. Torabi
- 3 E. Hajsafi
- 7 A. Jahanbakhsh
- 15 R. Cheshmi
- 22 S. Hosseini
- 18 A. Hosseinzadeh
- 13 M. Kanani Zadegan
- 12 P. Niazmand
- 21 M. Ghorbani
- 2 S. Hardani
- 26 A. Razzaghinia
- 11 A. Alipour
- 25 D. Iri
- 24 D. Eckert Ayensa
- 4 T. Bindon
- 18 B. Waine
- 26 T. Smith
- 23 R. Thomas
- 19 B. Old
- 21 J. Randall
- 17 K. Barbarouses
- 3 F. De Vries
- 12 A. Paulsen
- 15 N. Pijnaker
- 24 C. Elliot
- 14 A. Rufer
- 25 L. Bayliss
- 22 M. Woud
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